NFL Players Who Are Huge Risks in 2019 Free Agency

When the free-agent market opens in the NFL on March 13, it offers teams an opportunity to bolster their rosters. To add difference-makers and depth alike.

But with every opportunity comes something else—risk. Time and again, we've seen teams go on huge spending sprees, only to be forced to blow up the team two years later when one or more of those high-priced veterans doesn't pan out.

Oftentimes, that risk is created by the size of the deal required to get those players to sign on the dotted line. Other times, it's handing that big deal to a player who is getting up there in age. Or who has a lengthy injury history.

Or even a combination of all these factors.

The reasons may vary, but every player on this list has one thing in common.

The teams that sign them next month will be making quite the gamble.

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Bill Feig/Associated Press

In most seasons, with most quarterbacks, a 26-year-old signal-caller with 29 career starts who has led a team to the playoffs would be one of the most coveted free agents on the market.

But this is no normal quarterback. This is Teddy Bridgewater. And while Bridgewater will still be one of the more sought-after free agents at the position this spring, there's also no doubt Bridgewater's the riskiest of this year's higher-end options under center.

Back in 2015, Bridgewater looked to be ascending the ranks of the NFL's young quarterbacks. His stats weren't eye-popping (3,231 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, nine interceptions), but Bridgewater went 11-5 as the starter in Minnesota and got the Vikings into the postseason.

Then, of course, the bottom fell out. Bridgewater suffered a gruesome leg injury in training camp the following summer that could have cost him his life. The 2014 first-round pick missed all of the 2016 season and attempted only two passes in 2017—both in mop-up duty against the Cincinnati Bengals.

In 2018, Bridgewater signed as a free agent with the New York Jets, only to be summarily shipped to New Orleans. Sitting behind Drew Brees, Bridgewater again barely played—although he did start in Week 17 when the Saints rested their starters.

The results of that start were less than impressive, although they did come with second-stringers. But it reinforced the reality that we haven't seen Bridgewater play effectively in the NFL for over three years.

At this point, it's fair to wonder if we ever will again.

RB Le'Veon Bell

Don Wright/Associated Press

As recently as 2017, Le'Veon Bell was arguably the best running back in the National Football League. Bell rushed for almost 1,300 yards, caught 85 passes and his 1,946 total yards ranked second in the NFL.

However, Bell's yardage totals in 2018 were—significantly lower. As you may have heard, unless you've been vacationing in Antarctica, Bell sat out the entire 2018 season while engaged in a contract dispute with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

There had been speculation that the Steelers could slap the transition tag on Bell this year in an effort to engineer a trade. However, on Wednesday that was put to rest, when Pittsburgh general manager Kevin Colbert said that Bell will not be tagged and will hit the open market.

Where Bell might land has been the subject of even more speculation. There have been so many teams mentioned as potential landing spots for the 27-year-old that counting them would require an abacus.

Whichever team wins that lottery will be taking one whopper of a chance.

Yes, Bell is an immensely talented runner—or was when we last saw him. But by the time Week 1 rolls around, it will have been over 18 months since Bell played in a game that counts. He'll also likely have the huge contract he's long coveted in his pocket—a deal that could average over $15 million a year with a hefty guarantee.

This for a back who has played in all 16 games in a season once in five years while missing 18 games over that span—not counting the lost season of 2018.

WR Randall Cobb

Peter B Joneleit/Associated Press

There was a time when Randall Cobb of the Green Bay Packers was arguably the best slot receiver in the NFL. Back in 2014, Cobb racked up 1,287 receiving yards on 91 catches and found the end zone 12 times. The following year, Cobb posted a respectable 79/829/6 stat line.

It's been a different story over the past three years for the 28-year-old. In each of those seasons, Cobb has missed time—including seven games in 2018. Last year's 38 catches were Cobb's lowest output in that regard since 2013, when he only appeared in six games. His 383 yards were his lowest output since his rookie season.

While at the NFL Honors in February, Cobb told Dave Schroeder of WBAY-TV that he is aware he may have played his last game with the Green and Gold after eight seasons with the Packers.

"There's never any talks until March," Cobb said. "We'll see what happens. I have no idea. I'm just taking it day by day and looking forward to the future."

It's unlikely Cobb will get a third contract close to the four-year, $40 million deal he signed with the Packers the last time he hit free agency. But there's going to be interest—Cobb won't turn 30 until the summer after the 2019 campaign and has three career seasons with 79 or more receptions.

The question is whether the team signing Cobb will get that player or the one who has been limited so much by injuries in recent years.

TE Jared Cook

D. Ross Cameron/Associated Press

For most of his NFL career, Oakland Raiders tight end Jared Cook has done everything in his power to be the living definition of a journeyman.

Over 10 seasons with four teams (Tennessee Titans, St. Louis Rams, Green Bay Packers and Oakland Raiders), Cook showed flashes of plus talent. He just didn't do it consistently enough to earn a new deal when contract time came around.

The 2018 season was different. In his contract year with the Raiders, Cook posted the best season of his career—68 receptions, 896 yards and six touchdowns.

All were career highs, and Cook was easily Oakland's most reliable receiver.

Given those numbers, there have been plenty of calls for an Oakland team flush with cap space to re-up Cook in free agency. If for whatever reason Oakland doesn't, there won't be any shortage of outside suitors.

However, prior to last year's explosion at the age of 31, Cook had never eclipsed 60 catches or 800 yards in a single campaign. Whenever a veteran player comes out of nowhere to post numbers in a contract year, it's fair to wonder if that player wasn't just angling for the deal some team is about to hand him.

And that ratchets up the risk involved in making a significant financial investment in said player.

OT Trent Brown

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Frankly, there isn't an offensive lineman who hits free agency and isn't a risky signing.

Were those players elite performers at their respective positions, they wouldn't get anywhere near the open market to begin with. But that won't stop OL-needy teams from throwing fat contracts at them.

Last year, the New York Giants handed Nate Solder $62 million over four years to play left tackle. The year before that, the Minnesota Vikings handed Riley Reiff $58.8 million over five years to do the same.

Both signings have been disasters.

This year, Trent Brown heads the list of tackles who have teams lining up to overpay him.

Granted, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, the 25-year-old Brown made it clear—if given a choice—he'd prefer to remain with the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, although he knows that may not be possible.

"That's definitely something I would love, but hey, we'll cross that bridge when we get there," Brown said. "Hopefully it's somewhere where I can build some longevity, somewhere where that would be a great place and a great fit schematically, in the locker room, on the field, and also somewhere that's also a great fit for my family as well."

The reality is the Patriots aren't going to pay Brown over $15 million a season any more than they would have Solder. Brown was decent in 2018, but he wasn't great. Per Fansided's Peter Panacy, Brown's 70.6 grade at Pro Football Focus ranked him 35th among 80 qualifiers at tackle.

But in FA, bad tackles get paid like good ones, and good tackles get paid like great ones.

DE Ezekiel Ansah

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Not that long ago, it appeared that there was no chance in Yuma that Ezekiel Ansah would get anywhere near the open market.

No offense to Yumans—or is it Yumanites?—but I've been there. It's hot.

The fifth overall pick of the Detroit Lions in 2013, Ansah exploded for 14.5 sacks in his third NFL season. As recently as 2017, Ansah piled up a dozen.

High-end pass-rushers don't often make it to free agency.

But over the past three seasons, Ansah has missed 14 games with an assortment of injuries. He has just 18 sacks over that span, and with 12 of them coming in 2017—well, you do the math.

Ansah bottomed out last year, missing over half the season and getting to the quarterback just four times. General manager Bob Quinn admitted to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press that Ansah's down year clouds his future with the franchise.

"Part of that is the medical," Quinn said. "Part of that is the, 'How long is he going to be out? What do we think when he gets recovered? Is he going to be the same?' So all these things kind of factor in, so I don't have an answer today. I'll say this about Ziggy. Ziggy fought through some things this year. Ziggy's extremely, extremely tough and I'm proud of him being a Detroit Lion because he, like Matthew Stafford, he played through some things that a lot of guys wouldn't and I appreciate that."

Here's the thing, though: While the Lions might not be willing to invest a fat chunk of change in Ansah, some team like the Jets or Raiders swimming in cap space and hard-up for edge-rushers will.

Those teams are playing with fire.

DE Brandon Graham

Brad Penner/Associated Press

As previously mentioned, the number of teams that need help getting after the quarterback annually outweighs the number of quality edge-rushers who reach free agency.

Even then, "quality" can be a relative concept. For an edge-rusher to get to the open market at all, there has to be some sort of question mark.

For Ziggy Ansah, it's durability. For Brandon Graham, it's age and a lack of sack production.

Don't get me wrong. Graham's long been an excellent strong-side end who sets the edge well against the run. But the 30-year-old has never had a 10-sack season and has averaged less than five sacks a season over his nine years in the NFL.

Still, in a seller's market, Graham's going to get his. While speculating about the futures of a number of prominent free agents, ESPN.com's Bill Barnwell recently pegged Graham to get a three-year, $40 million contract from the Cleveland Browns.

"Let's get Myles Garrett some help," Barnwell said. "The Browns still have reasons to think Emmanuel Ogbah could round into a fine starter, but rotating Ogbah and Graham might make both players more productive. Graham is an excellent two-way edge-defender and a logical short-term move for a competitive Browns team."

It's a signing that would make some sense, but at that price, it's hard to see the Browns (or another team) getting their money's worth after investing in an aging defensive end like Graham.

ILB Jordan Hicks

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Oh look, another Eagle.

After four up-and-down seasons with Philadelphia, inside linebacker Jordan Hicks told reporters that Philly's playoff loss to the New Orleans Saints may have been his last game with the team:

"We'll see what happens, man. Honestly, this place is home. ... Hopes and whatever I want doesn't really matter at the end of the day because you want to be somewhere that you're wanted, and you gotta see your market and figure out what is to come. And so like you said, a lot of uncertainty and a lot of different things could happen. I love this place, I love Philly, I love the people here. I love this team, the guys on this team."

The Eagles would no doubt like to bring Hicks back. But there isn't a team in the NFC worse off relative to the salary cap right now than Philadelphia. And if Hicks is allowed to test the open market, there's going to be demand for his services.

Perhaps more than there should be.

To be fair, when he's been on the field, Hicks has proved to be a more than capable inside linebacker. He's tough. His instincts are solid. He doesn't miss many tackles. And Hicks is strong enough in coverage not to be a big liability in that regard.

But that "when he's been on the field" caveat is a massive one with Hicks. In three of his four seasons, Hicks has missed at least a month. Twice he's been sidelined at least half the year.

Sometimes, the best ability is availability.

CB Ronald Darby

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

This isn't meant to pile on Eagles players. It's partly an observation on a team that's only $2.2 million under the salary cap, according OvertheCap.com.

And partly an observation that in a couple of cases, having to bid adieu to players because of those financial difficulties may wind up being a blessing in disguise.

As Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, the belief is that Philly's cap crunch will force the team to let cornerback Ronald Darby test the open market. Assuming he does, he's all but certain to leave town, as he'd be at or near the top of the list of available players at one of the NFL's premium positions.

At just 25 years of age, Darby's just now entering the prime of his career. He's shown flashes of the ability to serve as a true "shutdown" cornerback over stints with the Eagles and Buffalo Bills. The folks at Spotrac expect Darby to be paid like a shutdown corner, too—the site's contract projection for Darby is a six-year pact worth around $80 million.

It's good work if you can get it.

However, the team signing Darby will also be counting on a reversal of recent fortune. Two years ago, Darby dislocated his ankle in the season opener. Last November, he tore his ACL, potentially putting his availability for OTAs in jeopardy.

Over $13 million a year is a lot to shell out for a guy who has missed almost half of the past two seasons.

S Earl Thomas

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Earl Thomas was once considered by some the best safety in the National Football League. Maybe even the best defensive back in football.

Six times from 2011 to 2017, Thomas was named to the Pro Bowl. Three straight seasons from 2012 to 2014, he was a first-team All-Pro. He topped 95 total tackles three times and intercepted 28 passes over nine seasons with the Seattle Seahawks.

But it's a time of change in the Pacific Northwest. Much of the team's "Legion of Boom" defense has been disassembled. And now, it appears it's Thomas' time to go.

After a turbulent final season with the team, approximately 107 percent of pundits expect Thomas to move on in free agency. The 29-year-old has been making googly eyes at the Dallas Cowboys dating back to last year, and it wouldn't be even a little surprising to see Thomas with a star on his hat in 2019.

The bigger question is whether investing big money in Thomas is a wise move for the Cowboys—or any NFL team.

That Thomas—when healthy—is an effective player isn't really up for debate. But he's now missed time in three straight seasons, including playing in just four games last year after breaking his leg for the second time in three seasons.

Also, there's a reason Seattle's willing to let Thomas go. Those injuries are a red flag—a warning that Thomas is headed into the downslope of his career. He may already be there.

Paying for what a player has already done is never a good idea.