Super Bowl Prop Bets 2019: Odds, Box Score, Point Spread Betting Advice
February 3, 2019
Super Bowl LIII is expected to be a tight affair if you base your predictions off the odds for the contest between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams.
New England has been favored by 2.5 points for most of gameweek, and barring a significant shift in the line Sunday, that's what the final point spread will be.
Los Angeles is the underdog for a handful of reasons, but the lack of Super Bowl experience feels like the primary one going against the Rams.
With five-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady leading the Patriots, it's hard for some bettors to pick against Bill Belichick's team.
If you don't want to bet the spread, there are countless prop bets you can make on the game, and you can find the full list of those on OddsShark.
Super Bowl 53 Odds
Odds via OddsShark.
Spread: New England (-2.5)
Over/Under: 56
Moneyline: New England -115 (bet $115 to win $100); Los Angeles +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
Betting Advice
The oddsmakers made the decision-making process for betting on the spread easy for Super Bowl LIII.
The Patriots, who have a tendency to play in close games at the Super Bowl, are favored by less than a field goal, which is significant given the history of the franchise and the championship game as a whole.
In the 52 previous Super Bowls, only one game has been decided by less than three points, while a handful have been decided by three points.
Since the spread is so small, a bet on the Patriots at -2.5 is a vote of confidence in them to win the game outright, while the same can be said about the Rams at +2.5.
If the spread were three points or more, there would be more strategy involved since New England has won three of its five championships by a field goal.
If you are looking to bet on props involving the specifics of the box score, there are a few solid picks out there.
One prop to seriously consider is the number of first-quarter touchdowns scored by either team, with the over/under at 0.5 for the Patriots and the Rams.
Traditionally, the Patriots are slow starters in the Super Bowl, but their defense also comes out strong, which is why the over/under on first-quarter scores in so low.
If you don't want to risk a wager on the low number of touchdowns in the first quarter, go after the over of 1.5 touchdowns scored in each half by both teams.
The first-half touchdown line allows you more space to breathe, and it doesn't put pressure on the teams to score immediately.
A year ago, the Philadelphia Eagles scored three touchdowns in the first half, while New England found the end zone once in the first 30 minutes.
Betting on the exact number of touchdowns is a good way to go because of the value involved in the bet, as the lowest odds in that prop are +400 for seven.
We recommend selecting a higher number in the total touchdowns prop since nine touchdowns were scored in Super Bowl LII and the end zone was reached on eight occasions in Super Bowl LI.
If you are looking to bet on individual numbers that show up in the box score, the over of 80.5 rushing yards for Sony Michel feels like a safe bet, as he's reeled off three 100-yard performances in his past four games.
From a receiving standpoint, the over on Brandin Cooks' receiving yards of 70.5 is one of the better wagers you can make, as he's coming off a 107-yard outing in the NFC Championship Game.
If you are looking to take a risk on one of the individual over/under totals, look at some players who may have unexpectedly large roles in Super Bowl LIII.
Rams tight end Tyler Higbee has an over/under of receiving yards at 21.5, Patriots wide receiver Phillip Dorsett's over/under is at 29.5 receiving yards and Cordarrelle Patterson of New England has an over/under of 12.5 receiving yards.
All it takes for one of those overs to hit is a long pass play in which Jared Goff or Brady connects with those respective players.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.