AFC Championship Game 2019: Updated Odds, Prop Bets for Patriots vs. Chiefs

Mother Nature could play the best defense in Sunday night's AFC Championship Game showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots.

Earlier this season, the Patriots prevailed in a 43-40 shootout decided by a last-second field goal. The weather, however, could siphon such crooked tallies from the conference's top-two scoring offenses. 

The National Weather Service projected an arctic blast would hit Kansas City with sub-zero temperatures. Some sun has since shone on the forecasts, as it now anticipates a low of 21 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday evening.

That's still cold. Freezing temperatures may mitigate the offensive fireworks and compel each offense to exploit a vulnerable run-prevention unit. That logic factors into two of the highlighted prop bets, taken from Oddschecker.

AFC Championship Game: New England at Kansas City

Date: Sunday, January 20 at 6:40 p.m. ET on CBS

Odds: Kansas City (-3), Over/Under (55.5)

Prop Bets

Tom Brady's Total Passing Yards: Under 291.5 (4-5)

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The first instinct is to take the over and run. Tom Brady is averaging 358.2 passing yards over his past nine playoff games—with a low of 287—after recording 343 against the dangerous Los Angeles Chargers. He is set to face a Kansas City defense that allowed the second-most passing yards (273.4 per game) during the regular season.

The 41-year-old went 24-of-35 for 340 yards and a touchdown in Week 6's triumph. Also, come on. It's Tom Brady.

Yet the Chiefs secondary isn't the pushover it seems. According to Football Outsiders, the AFC West champions ended the season No. 12 in Defensive-adjusted Value over Average (DVOA) against the pass. They then held Andrew Luck to a mere 203 yards on 36 passes in an impressive 31-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round.

Their bigger weakness lies against the run, as they placed last in DVOA with 5.0 yards allowed per carry. Look for the Patriots to attack this vulnerability on a frigid evening with Sony Michel, who ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns in the divisional round.

As for Brady's playoff dominance, he hasn't played on an opponent's home soil since the 2015 AFC Championship Game.

During the 2018 campaign, his yards per attempt dipped from 8.0 to 7.3 on the road. He averaged 267.8 passing yards away from Gillette Stadium.

Brady, who has attempted 36.1 passes per game, may need to throw more than 40 times to hit the gaudy prop line. While that's feasible given his postseason usage patterns, this contest calls for a run-heavy game script. 

Damien Williams' Total Rushing Yards: Over 62.5 (10-11)

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The Patriots finished the regular season ranked No. 11 in rushing defense before containing the Chargers to 19 yards in a lopsided affair. Yet they are weaker than the surface numbers indicate.

As a result of attaining 11 wins with a 12.9-point average margin of victory, New England withstood the regular season's sixth-fewest rushing attempts (367). They have also, however, yielded 4.8 yards per carry, and that's including the dominant divisional-round display.

Football Outsiders confirms this underlying inefficiency, as the AFC East champions placed No. 19 in DVOA against the run. These struggles should materialize as road underdogs on a cold Sunday evening.

In four games without Spencer Ware, Damien Williams has taken hold of Kansas City's backfield by tallying 332 rushing yards. He parlayed a career-high 25 handoffs into 129 yards and a touchdown in the victory over the Colts, whose rushing defense ended the season No. 4 in DVOA.

Per ESPN.com's Adam Teicher, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid said he was never worried after dropping to his third-string running back.

"Everybody felt with Damien if he just had an opportunity to go, you'd get an idea [what he was capable of]," Reid said. "I thought we were going to be OK there."

This would be a particularly strong bet if not for Ware's fully participation in practice on Thursday. There's risk of a timeshare if he suits up. Yet he's unlikely to immediately receive a heavy workload in the conference title clash after missing more than a month with a hamstring injury.

Williams should still receive the bulk of Kansas City's snaps and touches. While he won't stockpile another 25 rushes in a closer contest, 15 runs should steer him over 62 rushing yards.

Rob Gronkowski Touchdown (3-1)

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Perhaps this is a fool's bet. Clearly a shell of his past self, Rob Gronkowski has snagged just five of 11 targets for 70 yards in his past four games. Including a divisional-round triumph in which he caught his only target for 25 yards, the former red-zone maestro has collected three touchdowns in 14 games.

Yet it's awfully hard to ignore a large potential payout for the future Hall of Famer crossing pay dirt one more time.

Gronkowski, in addition to his 79 career regular-season touchdowns, has deposited 12 more in 14 postseason games. Although he made a minimal receiving impact against the Chargers, the 6'6" tight end drew a pass-interference penalty in the end zone.

He also gets a vulnerable opponent. The Chiefs rank 25th in DVOA to tight ends, who have spurned them for 69.1 yards per game. Their 10 touchdowns permitted to the position tied the Cincinnati Bengals for an NFL high, according to Yahoo Sports.

While Gronkowski didn't enjoy a celebratory spike in their early meeting, he posted 97 receiving yards against Kansas City. That makes the over on 48.5 yards an intriguing proposition at 10-11, but there's more upside to be had from the touchdown prop.

Note: All DVOA data obtained from Football Outsiders.