Super Bowl Odds: Breaking Down the Chances of Every Remaining Team
Who's the favorite to win Super Bowl LIII among the final eight teams? It's not an easy question to answer with a sizzling hot No. 6 seed, a defending champion and four clubs with 12-plus wins in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy.
Parity in the NFL brings some excitement for bettors looking to cash in on a long shot to win the title. And there's chatter about the New England Patriots' decline, which is a narrative that certainly influences those placing wagers on this year's title winner.
Following Wild Card Weekend, we'll take a look at Oddsshark for each team's up-to-date odds on winning the Super Bowl.
How do the wild-card teams stack up against the top seeds that earned a bye week? Who's the favorite? Among clubs with the lowest odds, which squad is most equipped for an improbable run through February? Take a look below to find out.
Dallas Cowboys
1 of 8
Odds: +1200
It shouldn't come as a surprise to see the Dallas Cowboys with one of the slimmest chances at winning a title. Critical questions surrounded the franchise midway through the year. Is head coach Jason Garrett on the hot seat? Does quarterback Dak Prescott deserve a lucrative new deal? Who's the game-changing wide receiver in this passing offense?
The Cowboys acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from the Oakland Raiders in exchange for a first-round pick, and that seemed to change the trajectory of their 2018 season. With him, Dallas has won eight of 10 contests. He's posted three 100-plus yard performances to go along with six touchdowns.
Though Cooper has dominated in spots, he hasn't reached the end zone since Week 14. Beyond his receiving numbers, it's important to understand how he opens the field for the ground attack. Safeties can't overload the box to stop Ezekiel Elliott on every down. When the fourth-year receiver runs crisp routes downfield, multiple defensive backs have to account for him darting past a primary defender.
Most importantly, there's no doubt that Prescott has become a more productive passer with Cooper on the perimeter. He failed to throw for 200 yards in four of his first seven outings; that's only happened once since the trade. Above all, Elliott led the NFL in rushing yards per game for a third consecutive season. As long as he's healthy, the Cowboys have a chance to shock the league.
Despite the improved play through November and December, Dallas may have to go through the Los Angeles Rams, the hottest team of the first half of the season, and the New Orleans Saints, the club with the best overall record.
The Cowboys beat the Saints at home, but an NFC Championship Game between the two teams could look entirely different in front of a roaring crowd at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Before thinking about a Round 2 with New Orleans, Dallas faces the Rams and their No. 2 scoring offense, which places an onus on the Cowboys to top their 21.2 points-per-game average. Prescott and company have the most daunting road ahead.
Philadelphia Eagles
2 of 8
Odds: +1000
Could there be some Nick Foles Magic in the air again for the Philadelphia Eagles?
Since taking over for quarterback Carson Wentz (fractured vertebra), Foles has put the team on track for another potential run through February. Philadelphia crept through the back door of the postseason by winning five of its final six games, while the Minnesota Vikings lost in Week 17 to give up their spot.
Ironically, the Eagles knocked off the Chicago Bears and their No. 1 scoring defense after the NFC North leader beat the Vikings.
Foles threw two interceptions in the wild-card contest, but he led the offense downfield for the go-ahead score to keep Philadelphia's playoff hopes alive. Defensive tackle Treyvon Hester deserves recognition for tipping kicker Cody Parkey's potential game-winning field goal.
Now, the Eagles must avenge their 48-7 blowout loss to the Saints. Philadelphia will travel back to New Orleans at the scene of the Week 11 beatdown in hopes of flipping the end result, but it's a tough task even with Foles under center.
Foles will have wideouts Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor along with tight end Zach Ertz to attack the Saints pass defense. The Eagles may have to score 35 points to beat this club on their turf—something Philadelphia hasn't done with the 29-year-old signal-caller at the helm. New Orleans averaged 34.1 points per game at home this year.
Though we watched Foles pull off an improbable Super Bowl run last year, it's fair to wonder if an inconsistent ground attack places too much pressure on him this time around.
Indianapolis Colts
3 of 8
Odds: +1000
Similar to the Eagles, the Indianapolis Colts are the hot sixth seed in their conference. They've won 10 of their last 11 games. After a 1-5 start to the year, this squad seems like a group of overachievers, but the execution looks sharp on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Andrew Luck's return elevated the aerial attack, which ranked sixth in yards and second in touchdowns in the regular season. Don't overlook running back Marlon Mack, who's logged 119-plus yards in three of his last four games. All-Pro rookie guard Quenton Nelson has matched up against some of the better pass-rushers in the league; he handled Jadeveon Clowney on one particular snap in the last contest.
Indianapolis also finished the year with the eighth-ranked run defense. Sooner or later, we'll have to pay more attention to cornerback Kenny Moore II, who's holding his own on the boundary. He logged 11 pass breakups and three interceptions during the regular season and forced another turnover in the last outing. Linebacker Darius Leonard looks like a strong candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
The Colts don't play like a finesse team anymore. They can win battles in the trenches and field enough speed on defense.
There's a clear reason the Colts don't have the worst Super Bowl odds of the remaining field. It shouldn't surprise anyone if they pull off an upset in the divisional round. The balance across the roster gives them a chance to match up evenly against the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday. Indianapolis will field the better defensive unit, which ranked 10th in scoring this season.
Facing a team that struggles to keep opponents out of the end zone, Luck should have a solid performance. A few critical stops could place the Colts in the AFC Championship Game against the Los Angeles Chargers, who haven't been as sharp offensively in recent weeks, or the Patriots, whose pass defense has sputtered at times. While riding a hot streak, both are winnable matchups for Indianapolis.
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Los Angeles Chargers
4 of 8
Odds: +900
It's mind-blowing that quarterback Philip Rivers has only played in one conference championship game. For one reason or another, the Chargers haven't been able to assemble their roster talent for a shot at the Super Bowl during his tenure. Yet, among the wild-card teams, they have the best odds for a title this year.
The Chargers' shaky Wild Card Weekend finish should make bettors a little wary, but the offense features a plethora of weapons capable of outscoring any team in the postseason.
Rivers can distribute the ball to a wide receiver corps that's four deep, featuring Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin. The team activated tight end Hunter Henry (torn ACL) for the first time this year. The Chargers can also run the ball straight through the heart of a defense with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler.
Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley's top-10 defense adds a reassuring touch to the Chargers' chances as a strong Super Bowl contender. After missing nine games with a foot injury, pass-rusher Joey Bosa seems like he's gaining steam, logging a full sack in each of the last two games. Along with Melvin Ingram, he'll make Patriots quarterback Tom Brady uncomfortable in the pocket.
Rookie safety Derwin James may play a role in slowing down tight end Rob Gronkowski Sunday. In coverage, he recorded 13 pass breakups and three interceptions during the 2018 term.
It's feasible the Chargers slot ahead of the Colts in odds because of Los Angeles' stronger regular-season campaign. On paper, the Chargers are the No. 5 seed in the AFC, but this club also won 12 games. If they played in any other division, they would've had a bye week. It's a wild-card squad with one of the best records in the field.
New England Patriots
5 of 8
Odds: +600
The Patriots have set a high standard in recent years. From 2011-2017, they won at least 12 contests and reached the AFC Championship Game each season. New England finished the 2018 campaign with 11 victories, their fewest since 2009. And it's alarming that they lost all their games to non-playoff teams—a few in blowout fashion.
But it's hard to bet against Bill Belichick and Brady when it's playoff time. They're the most trustworthy head coach-quarterback duo in terms of winning the big game. Together, they've won five rings. Frankly, it's surprising that New England doesn't have stronger odds.
The Patriots still have at least one home game to play for the postseason, against the Chargers. Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski had an extra week to rest. Running back Sony Michel looks like a legitimate threat to defenses on the ground. As a rookie, he's provided balance to the offense, rushing for 931 yards in 13 appearances.
New England held its last five opponents to fewer than 250 passing yards. If the defense keeps that trend going, Rivers could have a subpar outing Sunday. He's thrown three touchdown passes and six interceptions in the last four contests. Well-rested with a defense playing better in recent weeks, the Patriots have a strong chance at reaching their eighth consecutive AFC Championship Game.
In a matchup with the Colts, they would remain at home and should be favored to win against a squad that plays its home games indoors. If New England has to go on the road to Kansas City, Belichick can refer to some game-plan aspects that worked in their regular-season battle.
Los Angeles Rams
6 of 8
Odds: +450
The Rams looked unstoppable in winning eight consecutive games to start the year. The offense clicked on all cylinders with quarterback Jared Goff taking another step in his development and running back Todd Gurley picking up where he left off last season as the Offensive Player of the Year.
In November, the Rams encountered some adversity. They tasted defeat for the first time in a matchup with the New Orleans Saints in Week 9, then lost wide receiver Cooper Kupp for the season because of a torn ACL. Quarterback Jared Goff hasn't looked the same following the team's Week 12 bye, throwing six touchdown passes and six interceptions in December.
The bumps in the road provide a legitimate cause for a pause in pushing your chips to the middle of the table on the Rams. However, Todd Gurley will likely suit up to play the Cowboys after missing two games. As the engine of the offense, it's good news, especially with Goff's recent struggles. Dallas surrendered just 22 touchdowns through the air this year.
In a possible NFC Championship Game scenario against Philadelphia, Los Angeles would have some question marks up front concerning its 23rd-ranked run defense, but the Eagles ground attack listed 28th this season. It's hard to imagine their running back by committee gouging the Rams defensive front, especially with play-caller Wade Phillips likely preparing for the opposition to exploit that weakness.
In each of his four starts, Foles has thrown an interception, which creates an opportunity for cornerback Marcus Peters, who leads the league in interceptions (22) and return yards from picks (587) since the 2015 campaign, to change the game on a critical play.
Despite their loss to the Saints earlier in the year, the Rams have the firepower to go score-for-score with them in a dome. That game went down to the wire. A second shot at the Eagles with Gurley healthy could favor Los Angeles in that particular NFC Championship Game scenario.
Kansas City Chiefs
7 of 8
Odds: +400
The Chiefs didn't back their way into the postseason, but they lost some of their spark late in the year.
The team parted ways with running back Kareem Hunt after TMZ released a video of him striking a woman at a Cleveland hotel. Damien Williams has filled in adequately and even earned a two-year extension, but he doesn't provide comparable volume as a ball-carrier. The 26-year-old hasn't logged more than 13 rushing attempts in a single game.
The Chiefs will need some ball control to keep opposing offensive units from teeing off on their 24th-ranked scoring defense. Up front, Chris Jones and Dee Ford have been a two-man wrecking crew in the trenches, racking up 28.5 combined sacks. They can certainly close out games with their team in the lead.
Because of quarterback Patrick Mahomes' ability to move the ball up and down the field, Kansas City doesn't need a shutdown defensive group, just one that can make stops in critical situations. The Chiefs' explosive aerial attack featuring the 23-year-old signal-caller, wideout Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce could lead this club to the Promised Land.
Kansas City places second in Super Bowl odds likely because of its electric offense, familiarity with potential future opponents and a possible return for safety Eric Berry.
This offense has scored at least 26 points in every game this year. It's a difficult pace even for Luck and the Colts. If Berry takes the field, tight end Eric Ebron may experience some difficulty reaching pay dirt. He's been the missing link that could mask some of the Chiefs' defensive woes.
If the Chiefs beat the Colts, they'd have a second shot at the Patriots—this time at Arrowhead Stadium. It's a matchup that could go either way. In the first meeting, New England won a scoring shootout on a game-winning field goal with time expiring in regulation. Kansas City has knocked off Los Angeles, and it took a second-half rally to lose the second matchup at home.
While Kansas City isn't a lock to reach the Super Bowl and win it, head coach Andy Reid has the home-field advantage in Saturday's matchup. The Chiefs would also have the confidence to battle with either potential opponent in the conference championship round.
New Orleans Saints
8 of 8
Odds: +250
The Saints sit atop the odds lists as favorites to win Super Bowl LIII for legitimate reasons. Unlike the other teams who earned a bye, New Orleans didn't lose consecutive games in the second half of the season.
For the most part, head coach Sean Payton's group has kept its foot on the gas pedal after a surprising home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1. The Saints dropped a competitive road game to the Cowboys in Week 13 and lost a meaningless outing to the Carolina Panthers with the No. 1 seed wrapped up.
It's worth noting the Saints haven't lost a home playoff game with Payton and quarterback Drew Brees together. Fluke or not, it would take a first in that instance to knock this team out of the postseason before Super Bowl LIII, especially since New Orleans' star players have avoided injury.
Brees isn't throwing the ball as much as he used to; this year he finished with his fewest passing attempts (489) since the 2004 campaign. Still, the 39-year-old is incredibly efficient, completing a league-leading 74.4 percent of his throws. Runnings back Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have continued to shine as one of the best backfield duos in the league.
The Saints need solid coverage on the back end for a successful playoff run. Pass-rushers Cameron Jordan and Sheldon Rankins must work hand in hand with cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore, Eli Apple and P.J. Williams to disrupt opposing aerial attacks from carving up their 29th-ranked pass defense. If that's the case, New Orleans should look strong en route to a Super Bowl victory.
The Saints have earned victories over two of the three teams left on the NFC side of the bracket—the Eagles and Rams. If they meet the Cowboys again, home-field advantage can certainly change the complexion of the game. Payton's group should feel confident as the No. 1 seed; Las Vegas certainly does.
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