
NFL Playoff Odds 2019: Vegas Picks and Predictions Ahead of Divisional Round
This year's edition of the NFL's Wild Card Weekend was certainly, well, wild. There was one blowout win by a No. 6 seed on the road, a pair of hotly contested defensive battles and a furious near-comeback by a rookie quarterback.
When the dust settled, the Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles sat in the winner's circle. This means the divisional round matchups are officially set and only half of the AFC's division winners are involved.
Here's an early look at next week's playoff schedule, along with the latest odds and over/unders from OddsShark.ย
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Divisional Round Schedule, Lines and Predictions
Saturday, January 12
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
When:ย 4:35 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: NBC and NBC Sports App
Line, Over/Under: KC -5.5, 56.5
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Colts 28
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
When:ย 8:15 p.m ET
TV and Live Stream: Fox and Fox Sports Live
Line, Over/Under: LAR -7, 49
Prediction: Rams 31, Cowboys 25
Sunday, January 13
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
When:ย 1:05 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: CBS and CBS All Access
Line, Over/Under: NE -4.5, 47.5
Prediction: Patriots 27, Chargers 24
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
When:ย 4:40 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: Fox and Fox Sports Live
Line, Over/Under: NO -8.5, 51
Prediction: Saints 31, Eagles 23
Top Matchups
Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines vs. Chiefs Run Defense
The Colts defense has shown signs of improvement throughout the year. It finished the year ranked 10th in points allowed (21.5) and is a big reason why Indianapolis is advancing to the second round.
"You hear people say we don't have a bunch of Pro Bowl defensive players, a โbig-name' player," head coach Frank Reich said, per Joel A. Erickson of the Indianapolis Star. "I don't know about all that. All I know is we have good players."
As good as the Colts defense is, containing the Kansas City Chiefs offense is going to be a challenge. This is why the running game will be importantโthe best way to slow Patrick Mahomes is to keep him off the field.
Fortunately, the Colts are built to do exactly that, as they proved against the Houston Texans on Saturday.
Houston came into the postseason allowing the third-fewest rushing yards (82.7) in the league. Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines led an attack that produced 200 yards on the ground against it. Kansas City has allowed an average of 132.1 yards rushing per game.
If Indianapolis can again dominate on the ground, the Chiefs could be in real trouble.
Chargers Run Defense vs. Sony Michel, James White and Co.
A big reason why the Chargers were able to knock off the Baltimore Ravens was a run defense that allowed just 90 yards on the ground. If that run defense can come up big again against the New England Patriots, Los Angeles may be advancing once more.
Another big matchup here is New England's offensive line against pass-rushers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. The Patriots line has been goodโit allowed just 21 sacks in the regular seasonโbut not great. This is why slowing the pass rush by running the ball will be big for the Patriots.
New England has a number of backs who can move the ball on the ground, too. Sony Michel and James White have each averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the regular season. Cordarrelle Patterson averaged 5.4, and Rex Burkhead, while averaging just 3.3, was also in the mix.
Therefore, the Chargers won't have the easiest time slowing the Patriots run game. However, stopping Baltimore, who averaged 152.6 yards rushing per game, wasn't easy eitherโthough Los Angeles made it appear so.
Obviously, putting the game on Tom Brady's shoulders carries its own risks. However, if the Chargers can make the Patriots offense one-dimensional, it will increase their chances of forcing turnovers and big-time mistakes.
Eagles Secondary vs. Drew Brees
The Eagles scraped by the Chicago Bears thanks in large part to another marvelous performance by quarterback Nick Foles.
The defense and running game were good enough to winโthough a missed Cody Parkey kick still cost Chicago the winโbut they will have to be better to knock off the Saints in New Orleans.
As has been the case much of the year, Philadelphia's secondary was a problem in Chicago. It allowed second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to pass for 301 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions.
Trubisky is not a playoff-tested veteran like Saints quarterback Drew Brees.
What makes the Saints offense so dangerous is its balance. New Orleans can beat you with the run or the pass. If the Eagles cannot stop Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram on the ground, they're in trouble. If they can but cannot at least slow the Saints passing game, they're also in trouble.
Philadelphia can try rattling Brees with the pass rush, but there's no chance of that if the secondary cannot buy enough time for the rush to hit home. This could be the biggest matchup of the gameย because if the secondary cannot contain Brees, the Saints will be able to do whatever they want offensively.
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