Colts vs. Texans: Odds, TV Schedule, Predictions for 2019 AFC Wild Card

If their in-season meetings offer any indication, the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans will take a competitive Wild Card Round matchup down to the wire Saturday.

The AFC South adversaries traded three-point triumphs inside each other's homes during the regular season. They also enter the postseason as two of the NFL's hottest squads. While the Colts rallied from a 1-5 start to finish 10-6, the Texans won 11 of their final 13 games after opening 0-3.

The postseason commences with a thrilling showdown between Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson, two electrifying quarterbacks receiving widely contrasting support from their offensive lines. This has the makings of a butterfly effect game, wherein one turnover, drop or questionable penalty could swing a stalemate.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

When: Saturday, January 5 at 4:35 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN, ABC

Odds: Houston (-1.5); 48.5 O/U (via OddsShark) 

How Healthy is T.Y. Hilton?

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T.Y. Hilton torched the Texans for 314 combined yards in two regular-season meetings. Week 14's 199 yards marked the most he compiled in a single game since registering 175 (and two touchdowns) on Nov. 5, 2017, also against the Texans.

He's well aware of his success against his divisional rival. Ahead of the game, per ESPN.com's Mike Wells, the confident wide receiver expressed excitement about "going to my second home."

Indianapolis' big-play star, however, will visit NRG Stadium while nursing an injured ankle that had him listed as questionable on Thursday's final injury report.

The ailment didn't derail him down the stretch. Hilton eclipsed 60 yards in each of his past eight games, totaling an enormous 840 yards in the process. It's easy to see why head coach Frank Reich wants the 29-year-old on the field despite stating that Hilton is operating at "far from" full speed , per Kevin Bowen of ESPN The Fan 107.5/1070.

"Even him limited, we want him out there," Reich said. "He's willing to do that. It is that much more important to spread it around, get everyone involved and then get him involved at strategic times when we need him to make plays for us."

Adding even more pressure on Hilton to suit up, the Colts have ruled out Ryan Grant (toe) while also listing Dontrelle Inman (shoulder/finger) as questionable. While Inman collected just 304 yards this season, he produced 123 of them and two of his three touchdowns in the final two contests.

The Colts also must win through the air. Houston, which limited opponents to an NFL-low 3.4 yards per carry, held Indianapolis to a combined 91 rushing yards in both encounters. Luck, meanwhile, completed 67 of 103 passes for 863 yards, six touchdowns and a pick.

He will need another huge showing from Hilton alongside more stellar pass protection from his revamped offensive line.

A Tale of 2 Offensive Lines

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No team has surrendered fewer sacks than the Colts (18), who permitted an NFL-high 56 in 2017. That dubious distinction now belongs to the Texans, who incidentally allowed 12 of their 62 to the Colts.

That makes life much tougher on Watson. It also makes his sophomore campaign all the more impressive. Although routinely under siege, he finished sixth in yards per pass attempt (8.3) and quarterback rating (103.1) among qualified quarterbacks.

Despite his passing pocket constantly imploding, he completed at least 71 percent of his passes in each of his final six games. He didn't throw a single interception during that period.

Is Watson special enough to overcome the extra adversity? Per John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, Texans coach Bill O'Brien suggested the 2017 NCAA champion has the proper temperament to flourish on the grand stage.

"The playoffs are a different ballgame than regular season," O'Brien said. "He's played well for us on big stages—Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night. He loves it. He seems to have a lot of fun in those (games). He did it on big stages at Clemson, and I know he's looking forward to this game."

Watson's recent success hasn't come with superior blocking, as he was sacked at least four times in each of the past six bouts. Luck, meanwhile, has not gotten sacked four times in a game since the Texans did it in Week 4.

Fortunately for him and the ground game, Ryan Kelly is slated to return from a neck injury suffered in Week 16. His presence could also help Marlon Mack, who ran for 139 yards and two touchdowns when the center played all of Week 15.

Prediction

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Don't place much stock in the win-loss records. The Colts topped the Texans in total offense and defense while positioning three spots higher in Football Outsiders' Defensive-adjusted Value over Average (DVOA). They also surpassed the division champion's point differential by three (plus-89).

While the Texans are 1.5-point favorites, the slight edge at home shows the oddsmakers would lean toward the Colts in a neutral terrain. That's despite their 4-4 mark away from Lucas Oil Stadium, most recently scarred by a 6-0 loss to the collapsing Jacksonville Jaguars.

Throw in the deadlocked season encounters, and this is about as even as a playoff matchup can get.

Watson has bailed out his putrid offensive line all year. Yet the Texans needed a fumble recovery inside the end zone to squeak out a 37-34 overtime win over the Colts in September. Second in turnover differential (plus-13) on the season, they will need more good fortune.

It would take just one strip-sack or pressure-induced pick to turn the tide. Indianapolis, ceding 10,5 yards per reception, also won't yield many back-breaking plays.

Given ample time to dissect Houston's 28th-ranked passing defense, Luck leads the Colts to a narrow victory.

Pick: Colts 27, Texans 24