Young MLB Players in Serious Danger of Flaming Out in 2019
For some young players, the transition from top prospect to MLB standout is a smooth one. Others have to take their lumps and endure some struggles before reaching their full potential. And others still flame out before they can secure an everyday role in the big leagues.
The 10 players to follow are in serious danger of falling into that third category as they enter make-or-break seasons in 2019.
The only requirement for inclusion was that a player had to be no younger than 22 years old, while the cutoff to still be considered "young" in the context of this article was 26 years old. That notably excluded the likes of Leody Taveras (20), Mickey Moniak (20), Riley Pint (21) and Tyler Naquin (27) after preliminary consideration.
The logic is that a player under the age of 22 would just be entering the pro ranks if he went the collegiate route, so he's still ahead of the developmental curve and has time to develop as hoped.
The focus here was on players who have not yet produced up to their potential, and are at risk of falling out of favor with their current organizations.
Each of the 10 players that follow has the potential to be an impact player at the MLB level. Significant improvements will need to be made over last season, though, if that's going to happen.
Other Players Entering Make-or-Break Seasons
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Pitchers
- RHP Jharel Cotton, OAK—Age: 26
- RHP Jose De Leon, TB—Age: 26
- RHP Erick Fedde, WAS—Age: 25
- RHP Carson Fulmer, CWS—Age: 25
- RHP Hunter Harvey, BAL—Age: 24
- RHP Robert Stephenson, CIN—Age: 25
Position Players
- IF Christian Arroyo, TB—Age: 23
- 1B Bobby Bradley, CLE—Age: 22
- OF Clint Frazier, NYY—Age: 24
- IF Nick Gordon, MIN—Age: 23
- OF Monte Harrison, MIA—Age: 23
- OF Austin Hays, BAL—Age: 23
- C Austin Hedges, SD—Age: 26
- IF Ryan McMahon, COL—Age: 24
- 1B AJ Reed, HOU—Age: 25
- SS Alfredo Rodriguez, CIN—Age: 24
- OF Chris Shaw, SF—Age: 25
- 1B Dominic Smith, NYM—Age: 23
CF Anthony Alford, Toronto Blue Jays
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Age: 24
After two years of overlap between his college football career and pro baseball career, Anthony Alford saw his stock soar once he turned his full attention to the diamond.
Splitting the 2015 campaign between Single-A and High-A, he hit .298/.398/.421 with 36 extra-base hits and 27 steals, and he had similar numbers in 2017 over three minor league levels.
However, injuries have sidetracked him more than once on the developmental path, and he took a major step backward in 2018. After starting the season on the sidelines with a hamstring strain, he hit a middling .240/.312/.344 over 417 plate appearances at Triple-A.
He received a brief cameo in the majors for the second straight season but went just 2-for-19 with nine strikeouts in 13 games.
If Alford is going to live up to his vast potential as a top-of-the-order catalyst and standout defensive outfielder, he needs to avoid further injury issues.
A rebuild in Toronto should afford him every opportunity to succeed.
Now is the time for him to prove he can be a major part of the long-term puzzle as he enters his age-24 season.
SS Orlando Arcia, Milwaukee Brewers
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Age: 24
A top prospect pedigree and a strong second-half performance are enough for Orlando Arcia to maintain his grip on the starting shortstop job in Milwaukee, at least for the time being.
The 24-year-old struggled to a .197/.231/.251 line over 212 plate appearances before he was demoted to Triple-A on July 1.
After returning to the big league roster July 26, he hit .290/.320/.386 in 154 plate appearances the rest of the way. He followed that with an 11-for-33 performance in the postseason, leaving his arrow trending up heading into the 2019 campaign.
Still, he undoubtedly has something to prove.
Arcia was ranked as the No. 8 prospect in baseball heading into the 2016 season, and his defensive skills mean he can make a positive impact with even league-average production at the plate.
However, if he stumbles out of the gates again, prospect Mauricio Dubon is waiting in the wings as an in-house alternative. Dubon, 24, has a .300/.349/.412 line with 117 steals over six minor league seasons, and he's shown the defensive skills to handle shortstop at the highest level.
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RHP Tyler Beede, San Francisco Giants
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Age: 25
The prospect star has quickly faded on 2014 No. 14 overall pick Tyler Beede.
Viewed as one of the most polished college arms in the 2014 draft, Beede reached Double-A in his first full pro season and then posted a 2.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 135 strikeouts in 147.1 innings back at the level the following year.
That earned him the No. 89 spot on the Baseball America Top 100 list and the top spot among San Francisco Giants prospects heading into the 2017 season, but his performance has bottomed out in the upper levels of the minors.
After struggling to a 4.79 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 2017, he was absolutely shelled in a second go-around at Triple-A Sacramento this past season.
The 25-year-old went 2-8 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in 13 starts before he was moved to the bullpen where he posted a similarly disappointing 6.43 ERA in 24 appearances.
Beede has reached the top end of the prospect scale in terms of age. After his walk rate ballooned to 6.8 walks per nine innings last season, his command will need to improve substantially if he's going to push his way into the big league rotation.
CF Lewis Brinson, Miami Marlins
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Age: 24
The Miami Marlins acquired Lewis Brinson as the centerpiece of the blockbuster deal that sent Christian Yelich to the Milwaukee Brewers last offseason.
He entered last season as the No. 18 prospect in baseball and then broke camp with the starting center field job.
A .331/.400/.562 line at Triple-A during the 2017 season speaks to his vast offensive potential, and he has a chance to be a perennial 20/20 player if everything clicks.
However, the initial returns last season were brutal.
The 24-year-old hit .199/.240/.338 with a 29.6 percent strikeout rate over 406 big league plate appearances, walking at just a 4.2 percent clip.
2018 rookie standout Brian Anderson is locked into the right field job, and fellow prospects Victor Victor Mesa, Monte Harrison and Austin Dean are expected to vie for playing time soon. Brinson runs the risk of being passed by if he doesn't show significant progress.
CF Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
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Age: 25
Just when it looked like Byron Buxton had finally turned a corner.
A combination of injuries and inconsistency had baseball's 2014 No. 1 overall prospect labeled as a bust by many before he turned in a 5.2 WAR season in 2017.
While his offensive production was modest with a 93 OPS+ and 36 extra-base hits, his speed (29 steals in 30 attempts) and brilliant defense in center field (24 DRS, 11.5 UZR/150) made him one of the most valuable players in the game.
So what the heck happened last year?
Buxton hit just .156/.183/.200 in 28 games over the first two months of the season while playing through a broken big toe and then spent the rest of the year at Triple-A.
While his .264/.322/.443 line over 152 plate appearances in the minors was more promising, there's still a real question whether he'll ever stay healthy long enough to reach his full potential.
With Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler established at the corner spots and prospects Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker and Akil Baddoo all showing promising potential, the outfield situation in Minnesota is about to get crowded.
Buxton will be given every chance to hold down the center field job again in 2019, but if he struggles to hit or can't stay healthy, the Twins might have to start exploring other options.
SS J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners
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Age: 23
After four straight years ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the Philadelphia Phillies farm system, J.P. Crawford had a clear path to the everyday shortstop job last season.
The result was a disappointing .214/.319/.393 line over 138 plate appearances and minus-0.1 WAR. Injuries played a significant role, as a strained forearm and broken left hand limited him to 49 games.
Since the Phillies are looking to contend now, they shipped Crawford to the Seattle Mariners in December in a five-player trade that brought Jean Segura to Philadelphia.
"J.P. Crawford gives us a young shortstop who is very athletic and fills up the toolbox; he hits, he runs, he plays defense, he throws, he has power. For the last four years running, he's been among the top 20 prospects in baseball," Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto told reporters following the trade.
While Crawford's offensive production has been inconsistent throughout his pro career, on-base skills have always been a clear strength. He posted a .366 on-base percentage with a 13.1 percent walk rate during six seasons in the minors and walked at a solid 9.4 percent clip last season despite his middling overall numbers.
A change of scenery could be just what the doctor ordered. There's no clear threat to his job in the Mariners system, so he won't be looking over his shoulder in Seattle.
Still, it's time for him to deliver on the hype.
RHP Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
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Age: 24
Lucas Giolito entered the 2015 season as the No. 7 prospect in baseball and the top pitching prospect in the sport. He moved up to No. 5 on the leaguewide list the following season, one spot behind Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Julio Urias for the top spot among pitchers.
Simply put, he was viewed as a future ace.
Prior to the 2016 season, MLB.com wrote: "The sky is the limit for Giolito, who has the stuff, physicality and command to develop into an ace. That being said, his first several starts in the big league highlighted the gains Giolito still needs to make in regards to his fastball command, the consistency of his secondary pitches and pitching with runners on base."
The Chicago White Sox acquired him in the Adam Eaton deal ahead of the 2017 season. After a strong showing down the stretch in his first season with the organization, he was hit hard as a full-time member of the rotation in 2018.
His 6.13 ERA ranked dead last among 57 qualified starters, and he led the American League with 90 walks. Equally troubling was his inability to miss bats, as he tallied just 125 strikeouts in 173.1 innings for a 6.5 K/9 mark that surpassed only Mike Leake (5.8 K/9) among those same 57 starters.
And yet, he also showed glimpses of the vast potential that once made him a top prospect.
During a 12-start stretch from July 8 to Sept. 10, he recorded nine quality starts and held opposing hitters to a .215 batting average while posting a 63-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 69.2 innings.
While the White Sox rebuild will afford him a long leash, he needs to make some strides in 2019 before guys like Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease and Dane Dunning crash the party.
CF Manuel Margot, San Diego Padres
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Age: 24
Manuel Margot looked like a potential breakout candidate heading into the 2018 season.
As a rookie in 2017, he hit .263/.313/.409 with 38 extra-base hits and 17 steals. Coupled with his excellent defense in center field (8 DRS, 7.3 UZR/150), that was good for a 2.5 WAR season and a sixth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year balloting.
Instead, his offensive game bottomed out.
He hit .245/.292/.384 for an 86 OPS+ and was successful on just 11 of his 21 stolen-base attempts.
Below the surface, his hard-contact rate actually spiked from 25.4 to 39.3 percent, and there was some bad luck in his .281 BABIP—especially for a player with his wheels.
Still, while there's some evidence that he might be in line for a bounce-back of sorts, he'll first need to carve out a role in a crowded San Diego outfield.
RosterResource currently has Franchy Cordero penciled in as the starting center fielder with Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes to man the corners, leaving Margot in a backup role.
The 2019 season could determine whether he's an everyday player or a glove-first fourth outfielder.
SS Jorge Mateo, Oakland Athletics
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Age: 23
During his full-season debut in 2015, Jorge Mateo hit .278/.345/.392 with 82 steals.
That vaulted him to No. 26 on the Baseball America Top 100 list heading into the 2016 season, but he's thus far been unable to duplicate that level of success.
The Yankees shipped him to Oakland in the Sonny Gray trade. In his first taste of Triple-A this past season, he hit a pedestrian .230/.280/.353 with just 25 stolen bases—his lowest full-season total.
A 27.3 percent strikeout rate and 5.7 percent walk rate speak to a player with limited contact skills and no real plan at the plate.
It's also unclear whether he'll stick at shortstop or if he'll eventually need to move to second base or the outfield.
A .169/.300/.237 showing over 71 plate appearances in the Dominican Winter League has done nothing to improve his stock heading into the 2019 season.
With all of that in mind, this will be the year he either re-establishes himself as a viable prospect or gets lost in the organizational shuffle.
3B Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
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Age: 25
It's been a roller-coaster four seasons in the majors for Miguel Sano:
- 2015: 80 G, 149 OPS+, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 2.3 WAR
- 2016: 116 G, 108 OPS+, 25 HR, 66 RBI, 0.7 WAR
- 2017: 114 G, 126 OPS+, 28 HR, 77 RBI, 2.5 WAR
- 2018: 71 G, 82 OPS+, 13 HR, 41 RBI, -0.5 WAR
After an All-Star season in 2017 that was interrupted by a shin injury, Sano was again slowed in 2018 by a hamstring injury that cost him most of May. He then spent six weeks in the minors undertaking a "comprehensive rehab assignment designed to strengthen his core and lower body," according to John Shipley of the Pioneer Press.
He returned to the majors July 28 and hit an uninspired .195/.294/.390 in 136 plate appearances before a left knee injury ended his season in September.
In essence, 2018 can be chalked up as a lost season for the slugger.
Now he needs to prove that he is, in fact, a cornerstone piece of the long-term puzzle in Minnesota.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All prospect rankings via Baseball America.
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