NFL Playoff Picture 2019: Wild-Card Odds, Picks and Matchup Scenarios

As the first round of the 2018-19 NFL postseason approaches, it's easy to look at the games and the big picture. We have eight teams in action on Wild Card Weekend, with four more on bye awaiting the winners of the early contests.

The Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears will all see the field this weekend.

While it isn't difficult to look at the playoff landscape and make wholesale predictions, it can be a little trickier to identify how some of the individual matchups could throw the big-picture predictions out the window.

Last postseason, for example, the New England Patriots' pass rush didn't appear a clear liability because the defense produced 42 sacks in the regular season. However, that number was largely the result of the blitz, and that poor pass rush was exposed by Nick Foles and the Eagles offensive line in the Super Bowl.

Here, we're going to take a look at some of the individual matchups that could most impact the way Wild Card Weekend unfolds. We'll also look at the latest lines and over/unders from OddsShark and make score predictions for each game.

Wild Card Weekend 2019

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

When: Saturday, January 5 at 4:35 p.m. ET

TV and Live Stream: ESPN, ABC and WatchESPN

Line, Over/Under: HOU -1.5, 48.5

Prediction: Colts 30, Texans 25

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

When: Saturday, January 5 at 8:15 p.m. ET

TV and Live Stream: Fox and Fox Sports Go

Line, Over/Under: DAL -1.5, 43

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cowboys 25

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

When: Sunday, January 6 at 1:05 p.m. ET

TV and Live Stream: CBS and CBS All Access

Line, Over/Under: BAL -3, 41.5

Prediction: Ravens 27, Chargers 24

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

When: Sunday, January 6 at 4:40 p.m. ET

TV and Live Stream: NBC and NBC Sports App

Line, Over/Under: CHI -6, 41

Prediction: Eagles 22, Bears 21

Colts Pass Rush vs. Texans Offensive Line

The Indianapolis pass rush has the potential to dictate how the Colts-Texans tilt unfolds on Saturday. While the Colts don't have an elite pass rush, Matt Eberflus' defense is at least capable of getting to the quarterback.

Indianapolis had 38 sacks last season, and it was often able to create pressure with a four-man rush. This will be huge against Houston if successful.

"You look at it and see if your four-man rush is humming, because that’s what you would like to be able to do—rush with four and drop seven into coverage," Eberflus said, per Joel A. Erickson of the Indianapolis Star. "That’s typically what you want in this system."

Indianapolis' ability to create pressure without the blitz is part of the reason the Colts are dangers this postseason. They'll be especially dangerous against a Texans offensive line that has struggled to protect Deshaun Watson.

Watson was sacked a whopping 62 times in the regular season. If the Colts are able to pressure him with just four, they'll have extra defenders to bracket DeAndre Hopkins downfield. This could derail the Texans' passing attack, as Watson doesn't have a lot of other options with both Will Fuller and Demaryius Thomas on injured reserve.

Bears Pass Rush vs. Nick Foles

As previously mentioned, the Eagles were able to dice up the Patriots defense because New England couldn't lay a hand on Foles. Philadelphia probably won't pick apart Chicago's seventh-ranked pass defense (219.7 yards per game allowed), but it can have success if it can beat the pass rush.

This is easier said than done, of course. Led by Khalil Mack, the Bears pass rush is one of the best defensive units in the league—one that racked up 50 sacks in the regular season.

Part of the challenge is going to fall on the Eagles offensive line, obviously. However, it's also up to the quarterback to identify pre-snap rushers, avoid pressure in the pocket and beat the rush by getting the ball out quickly.

Foles is better at doing this than Carson Wentz.

As Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com recently pointed out, Foles has been sacked on just 3.8 percent of his dropbacks dating back to last season. Wentz has been sacked on 6.6 percent of his. This may only lead to one fewer sack against the Bears, but that could easily translate into one more scoring opportunity.

The winner of this individual matchup will likely be the team moving on.

Seahawks Secondary vs. Amari Cooper

The Seahawks and Cowboys have already faced each other once this season, but that was all the way back in Week 3, and a lot has changed since then. For one, Dallas has since added wideout Amari Cooper. That addition has allowed the offense to better move the ball in chunks and to alleviate pressure on the running game.

"You’ve seen the difference he has made to this team," Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said, per Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com. "We are fortunate to have him. Knowing what they like to play—they like to play a lot of single high—that offers a lot of one-on-one matchups with him. So excited for that matchup."

If Cooper is able to break loose against the Seahawks secondary, Dallas is going to be able to run its offense as planned. If Seattle can shut him down, though, it is going to limit Prescott's options and take away room from Ezekiel Elliott and the running game.

This will be a challenge, of course, as the Seahawks are good but not great against the pass. They allowed an average of 240.1 yards passing in the regular season, 17th in the NFL. Playing Cooper one-on-one probably won't be an option.