NFL Predictions Week 17: Picks and Projections for Top Upsets on the Schedule

The NFL's Week 17 slate always seems to offer the year's best chance at some marquee upsets. 

On cue, Monday's Week 16 finale offered a bit of foreshadowing in this regard by featuring an upset in the AFC West as the Oakland Raiders took down the Denver Broncos, 27-14. By kickoff, the visiting Broncos had been favored by 2.5 points.

While that was a small upset without a ton of playoff implications, those sorts of games and showdowns featuring playoff seeding and berths outright are bound to create more unexpected results. 

With no Thursday game to rush would-be bettors, the full slate of ever-evolving lines offers a few notable underdogs to target. 

Week 17 NFL Odds

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1) | O/U 51

Carolina at New Orleans (n/a)| O/U n/a

Chicago at Minnesota (-5) | O/U 41

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-14.5) | O/U 45.5

Cleveland at Baltimore (-6) | O/U 41

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (-7) | O/U 42.5

Detroit at Green Bay (-7.5) | O/U 43.5

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-1) |  O/U n/a

Jacksonville at Houston (-7) | O/U 40.5

Miami at Buffalo (-3.5) | O/U 38.5

N.Y. Jets at New England (-13.5) | O/U 45.5

Oakland at Kansas City (13.5) | O/U 54

Philadelphia (-7) at Washington | O/U 42

Arizona at Seattle (n/a) | O/U n/a

L.A. Chargers (-6.5) at Denver | O/U 41.5

San Francisco at L.A. Rams (-10) | O/U 50

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1)

Jason E. Miczek/Associated Press

This NFC South battle features a bit of a strange line, as the Atlanta Falcons opened as the small favorite but have already shifted to being the underdog. 

Which is right where upset-minded bettors should like them. 

The Falcons have won two in a row as the season grinds to a halt, getting five touchdowns and no interceptions from Matt Ryan in the process. The most impressive of the two was a 24-10 road victory over the Carolina Panthers. 

Not that Ryan playing well this season is any sort of surprise: 

Still, it is nice to see a depleted six-win roster around Ryan playing well down the stretch. Injuries ruined the season, with guys like Keanu Neal and Devonta Freeman sitting on injured reserve, but the offensive potential to carry the roster has always been there. 

About as expected, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a team headed in the other direction. Not only have the Buccaneers lost three in a row, but they have also now lost seven of their last nine. All-around struggles have forced Jameis Winston to the air 38 or more times in two out of the last three games, yet he has three touchdowns and two interceptions over that span to show for it. 

Not only is Winston still a turnover risk, but his running game also isn't averaging four yards per carry and the defense ranks 30th by surrendering 28.7 points per game. 

In other words, this is a line bettors should want to jump all over. On top of everything else, the Falcons won the first encounter 34-29. 

Prediction: Falcons 30, Buccaneers 20

Chicago at Minnesota (-5)

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

An NFC North battle also offers plenty of intrigue. 

On paper, the Minnesota Vikings look more desperate than the Chicago Bears. The hosts aren't assured a playoff spot unless they get a win and with the potential for these two to meet in the first round of the playoffs, the Bears might not show much outside of a vanilla approach. 

But that assumes quite a bit about the Bears. 

For one, head coach Matt Nagy has said he won't rest starters because seeding positioning is up for grabs, according to ESPN.com's Jeff Dickerson: "So we have to play to win, and I kind of like that. I don't mind that at all, and I think that our guys kind of like it. It just kind of keeps you going if you were fortunate enough to make it to the playoffs. It keeps you going in that rhythm."

The Bears simply playing starters regardless of how basic the approach is a problem for the Vikings. Minnesota looks good in a lot of ways, with Kirk Cousins completing north of 70 percent of his passes and the defense permitting just 21.1 points per game, yet the playoff-hopeful has gone 2-2 over its last four, losing both games to the only legitimate competition during the stretch, blowout losses to New England and Seattle. 

Compare that to Chicago, a team with health issues under center gritting its teeth to win three in a row, including wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers. 

Perhaps the best measure of these two is the Week 11 encounter the Bears took 25-20 despite one touchdown and two interceptions from Mitchell Trubisky and less than four yards per carry from the running game. Despite this, the Bears sat on the ball for more than 34 minutes in the win. 

While there is an outside chance the Bears see some live developments and decide to yank starters, betting one game is hard enough without worrying about something changing elsewhere. On paper, the Bears shouldn't have any problems pulling off a supposed upset given what they have shown not only in recent weeks but against this same team. 

Prediction: Bears 27, Vikings 20

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (-7)

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

Elsewhere in the NFC, another meeting between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants features an unexpected line because oddsmakers seem to predict the better team sitting starters. 

But it isn't always so simple. 

The Cowboys are the better team here by a mile, hence the assured fourth seed and NFC East title while the Giants presumably think about their future with Eli Manning during what is now a five-win season. 

But those Cowboys don't sound like a team ready to take the foot off the pedal. 

"Absolutely. We're all-out. We've got work to do. We've got some work to do out here, I think we'll all agree," Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said, according to Clarence E. Hill Jr. of the Star-Telegram. "We don't want to, if we can, go into the playoff with dangling participles—loose ends."

This could be misdirection for the sake of a misdirection—or it could be a team practicing a somewhat new line of thinking that suggests teams that take close to a week off or come out of a bye struggle.  

Either way, the Cowboys shifting to backups at some point doesn't even guarantee a win for the Giants at this stage. The NFC East's bottom team has lost two in a row and now has just 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions from Manning, who has been battered behind an offensive line that has coughed up 46 sacks. New York's efforts to revamp the defense and win around Manning have faltered as well, hence allowing 25.1 points per game (23rd). 

A little opening might be all the Cowboys starters need to pull ahead and stay ahead. This is a team that has won six of its last seven, which includes sweeping Philadelphia, going to Atlanta and winning and beating New Orleans while holding the Drew Brees-led attack to 10 points. 

With a line this big, it is hard not to like the underdogs in the majority of circumstances. When the talent and performance disparity is this large, it seems a given. 

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Giants 20

Where to Watch: NFL playoff games, studio shows and more are available through fuboTV. Odds via OddsShark.