NFL Picks Week 17: Advice on Final Regular-Season Vegas Odds and Spreads

Happy Holidays, folks! We've turned the page on Week 16, which means we have just one week left in the 2018 regular season. We still have the playoffs, of course, but for fans of the 20 teams who aren't making the second season, this is it.

This is also the last chance for bettors to play a full 16-game slate until next preseason. The questions for those fans, of course, is how many teams are going to truly play to win in the season finale?

This isn't a trivial question either. We already know that the New Orleans Saints have nothing to play for because they've secured the NFC's No. 1 seed. Teams that don't have chances at the postseason have little to play for as well. As the Denver Broncos showed on Monday night, that can leave the motivation level a little lacking.

With all of this in mind, we're going to examine the Week 17 slate and the early over/unders and odds from OddsShark. We'll make score predictions for each game and examine some of the more unusual situations that could impact the final week.

Week 17 Odds, Over/Unders and Predictions

Carolina Panthers (unavailable) at New Orleans Saints: Saints 22, Panthers 16

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7, 40.5 O/U) at Houston Texans: Texans 25, Jaguars 17

Detroit Lions (+7.5, 45 O/U) at Green Bay Packers: Packers 30, Lions 20

Atlanta Falcons (+1, 51 O/U) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 23

Dallas Cowboys (unavailable) at New York Giants: Giants 22, Cowboys 18

New York Jets (+13.5, 45.5 O/U) at New England Patriots: Patriots 33, Jets 20

Miami Dolphins (+3.5, 38.5 O/U) at Buffalo Bills: Bills 18, Dolphins 16

Chicago Bears (+5, 41 O/U) at Minnesota Vikings: Bears 24, Vikings 23

Oakland Raiders (unavailable) at Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs 30, Raiders 24

Cincinnati Bengals (+14, 45.5 O/U) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers 38, Bengals 22

Cleveland Browns (+5.5, 41 O/U) at Baltimore Ravens: Ravens 21, Browns 20

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 42 O/U) at Washington Redskins: Eagles 30, Redskins 20

Arizona Cardinals (unavailable) at Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 17

San Francisco 49ers (+10, 50 O/U) at Los Angeles Rams: Rams 31, 49ers 26

Indianapolis Colts (unavailable) at Tennessee Titans: Colts 30, Titans 22

Cowboys Don't Plan to Rest

While we may see the Saints play some starters for a bit in order to keep the rust off, it would seem more beneficial for the Dallas Cowboys to rest star players in Week 17. The Saints are going to have a bye next week. Dallas will not.

However, owner Jerry Jones has made it known that he doesn't intend for his team to rest on its laurels against the rival New York Giants:

The Giants, on the other hand, have shown a lot of fight down the stretch and are going to look to go out on a high note. If this game starts to get overly physical or out of hand in any way, the Cowboys would be wise to start pulling guys, no matter what Jones wishes.

Let's not forget that Dallas is likely to host a very physical Seattle Seahawks team in just a week. Getting a guy like Ezekiel Elliott or Amari Cooper dinged up prior to that game when there's nothing to lose doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

The line isn't out for this game yet because the Cowboys do have a tough decision to make, but we're taking the Giants in a close one.

Steelers Clawing

Losing to the Saints dropped the Pittsburgh Steelers out of a playoff slot for at least the time being. They'll need some help to get in now, as they'll either be AFC North champions or will be sitting at home in January.

As odd as it sounds, Steelers fans need to be Cleveland Browns fans for one week. If the Baltimore Ravens take care of Cleveland at home, Pittsburgh will have no shot at the division title. If the Browns pull off the upset, though, the Steelers only need to beat the Cincinnati Bengals to win the division.

Here's where this whole scenario comes into play for Sunday. All four of these AFC North teams play in the 4:25 p.m. ET slot. This means neither team will know exactly where they stand until their games are at an end.

We'd expect Pittsburgh to fight hard for the win regardless, and we expect them to blow out the listless and injury-hampered Bengals. 

Naturally, this is why the league scheduled both games simultaneously. Don't expect either the Steelers or the Ravens to slack off in their respective finales.

Who's Under Center for Tennessee?

The Week 17 finale should be a good one. The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans will battle for a spot in the postseason. If the Houston Texans somehow slip up in the afternoon, this game will decide the AFC South.

This should be one of the best games of the week, but it might not necessarily be. A lot is going to do with the health of Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, who was injured in Week 16 and gave way to backup Blaine Gabbert.

"We are going to do a little bit of individual work on the field and see if he can do any of that stuff, and then we’ll kind of keep moving on towards the end of the week," Titans coach Mike Vrable said, via the team's official website.

Gabbert played well enough to lead Tennessee to a win over the Redskins, and we're not sure the Titans offense will take a massive hit if Mariota isn't at 100 percent. We're not sure it really matters much either.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has never lost to Tennessee and a win gets him back into the postseason. This injury is worth following because it will influence the final line, but we expect Indianapolis to win either way.