Week 16 NFL Picks: Tips for Vegas Odds and Over/Under Score Predictions

A few notable line adjustments en route to the NFL's Week 16 slate has created more tension than usual this time of year.

So it goes when a starting quarterback gets yanked from the lineup and perceived favorites don't seem to be favored quite enough to keep would-be bettors happy. The result is an ever-evolving set of lines ripe for exploitation if bettors have the time this holiday season to keep up. 

Or in some cases, simply have access to a digestible, updated set of odds. Let's provide the latest lines and over/under totals below and assign picks for each before taking a closer look at three of the matchups that are seemingly ripe for late-season gains.

Week 16 NFL Odds

Washington at Tennessee (-10) | O/U 37

Baltimore at L.A. Chargers (-4)  | O/U 45

Atlanta (-3) at Carolina | O/U 44

Buffalo at New England (-13.5)  | O/U 45

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-9)  | O/U 45.5

Green Bay at N.Y. Jets (-1)  | O/U 44

Houston at Philadelphia (-1.5) | O/U 45

Jacksonville at Miami (-4)  | O/U 39.5

Minnesota (-6) at Detroit | O/U 43.5

N.Y. Giants at Indianapolis (-9)  | O/U 47

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-7)  | O/U 46

Chicago (-4) at San Francisco | O/U 42.5

L.A. Rams (-14.5) at Arizona | O/U 47.5

Pittsburgh at New Orleans (-6)  | O/U 53

Kansas City (-3) at Seattle | O/U 53

Denver (-3 ) at Oakland | O/U 44.5

Atlanta (-3) at Carolina

Danny Karnik/Associated Press

This one took a turn from the simple route in a hurry, with the Carolina Panthers initially opening as favorites over the Atlanta Falcons. 

That evaporated quickly upon the news Carolina will outright sit Cam Newton for the remainder of the season in an effort to keep him healthy as they eye the future: 

As much as the decision makes sense, it also changes the complexion of a game that was hard to predict but sensibly favored the home team. 

Now things get trickier, as the five-win Falcons still have to battle on the road against a divisional opponent that knows them well. The good news? They picked up a win in Week 15, a 40-14 whipping of the Arizona Cardinals and the Panthers have managed to implode on a massive scale, losing six in a row. 

With Newton out, Carolina's offense will run through Christian McCaffrey, who has 979 yards and seven scores while averaging five yards per carry. He's also put up 768 yards and six scores through the air. For most of the season, a depleted Atlanta defense has struggled the most against pass-catching backs. 

Yet, it's hard not to loop back to the quarterback conversation. The Falcons might be a bad, battered team right now, but Matt Ryan has still completed 69.9 percent of his passes with 30 touchdowns and six interceptions. He was still good enough to beat Carolina with Newton near the start of the season while firing only five incompletions. 

And honestly, it is enough to feel comfortable throwing weight behind the Falcons here, as Ryan should have another solid day while his defense gets to face a predictable attack. 

Prediction: Falcons 30, Panthers 23

Buffalo at New England (-13.5)

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Don't fret too much over the New England Patriots. 

Yes, the Patriots have lost two in a row. But a one-point loss to a divisional rival—Miami or not—came on the road. So too did the following 17-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

Things get much more simplistic for Tom Brady and the Patriots in Week 16, as they return home and get a five-win Buffalo Bills team they already beat 25-6 this year. Granted, the Bills were busy bumbling around with Derek Anderson under center at that point, but the point stands familiarity and talent differential should play a big role here. 

And there is the whole playing-at-home thing to consider: 

It is a nice way of saying the Bills likely won't have much of a shot here. First-round pick Josh Allen has brought some excitement to the offense while helping the Bills to a 2-2 record over the last four, but he's also thrown just four touchdowns and interceptions over that span. 

For the season, Brady is still completing 65.9 percent of his passes with 24 scores and nine picks and the usual committee approach in the backfield continues to balance the offense out. Defensively, the Patriots have had problems, but the issues seem to come and go, hence holding Green Bay to 17 but coughing up 34 to Miami. 

Buffalo isn't Miami, especially in Foxborough. These don't seem to overly be the usual Patriots, but Brady is still Brady. He's beat elite teams in shootouts like Kansas City it and toughed it out against elite defenses such as the one he bested in Chicago. 

Brady moving past the Bills again for a season sweep wouldn't register much in the surprise department, hence the gigantic line. 

Prediction: Patriots 35, Bills 17

Chicago (-4) at San Francisco

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

This line feels like it should feature a bigger point spread. 

The Chicago Bears have clinched the NFC North but aren't going to throw in the towel over the last two weeks, not with critical playoff seeding still up for grabs. 

Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky confirmed as much, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com): "It's kind of like coming off a bye or coming off a loss. It's how you're going to respond to it. We've clinched; there's certain ways you can go about this and we've just got to have a workman's attitude, come to work, continue to get better, stay rested and try to go 1-0 each week."

These Bears have won seven of their last eight, the exception a weird three-point overtime loss. Included in there are wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay, to name a few. 

Trubisky can thank an elite defense that only permits 18.9 points per game, though he continues to pitch in when healthy via 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. 

Granted, the four-win San Francisco 49ers have shown some life down the stretch. Two of those wins have come in a row now, and one of those was an overtime upset of the Seattle Seahawks at home. And while seeing the Nick Mullens-led team shake up the playoff race in an interesting way, it is hard to gloss over the fact two weeks prior the 49ers had lost to those same Seahawks in 43-16 fashion. 

Meaning, the 49ers aren't a consistent team. Mullens has more sacks (13) than touchdowns (10) with six interceptions to boot. The defense hasn't been able to compensate for the lack of offense and sits 26th by allowing 26.6 points per game, too. 

The 49ers are the fun team playing the spoiler right now this year, but the Chicago defense is too much for a lack of star power to overcome. The Bears will force too many Mullens mistakes to give this game away. 

Prediction: Bears 30, 49ers 13

Odds via OddsShark