Fantasy Football Week 16: Waiver-Wire Pickups, Rankings and Stat Projections

NFL Week 15 certainly brought some fantasy football surprises.

As was the case the previous week, some of the most dependable fantasy stars were massive disappointments at the worst possible times.

In Week 14, it was guys like Todd Gurley and Jared Goff. This week, it was players like Tyreek Hill, Saquon Barkley, Adam Thielen and Keenan Allen.

In other words, you can research trends, matchups and player roles all you want, but fantasy is still a wildly unpredictable game—you know, kind of like the real thing.

Hopefully, a few fantasy disappointments didn't derail your fantasy postseason run. If you're still alive, you're going to want to plan for Week 16—even while knowing that the unpredictable can still happen.

Well, we're here to help by providing our early Week 16 positional rankings. We'll run down our top players at each skill position—quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end—and provide stat projections for each. We'll also take a closer look at one waiver-wire target for each position.

All rankings are based on PPR scoring formats. Fantasy matchup statistics via FantasyPros.

Quarterback

1. Drew Brees vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 350 yards passing, 3 TDs

2. Russell Wilson vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 280 yards passing, 25 yards rushing, 3 TDs

3. Cam Newton vs. Atlanta Falcons: 250 yards passing, 35 yards rushing, 2 TDs

4. Baker Mayfield vs. Cincinnati Bengals: 300 yards passing, 2 TDs

5. Patrick Mahomes at Seattle Seahawks: 290 yards passing, 2 TDs

6. DeShaun Watson at Philadelphia Eagles: 230 yards passing, 35 yards rushing, 2 TDs

7. Jared Goff at Arizona Cardinals: 275 yards passing, 2 TDs

8. Ben Roethlisberger at New Orleans Saints: 275 yards passing, 2 TDs

9. Lamar Jackson at Los Angeles Chargers: 150 yards rushing, 90 yards rushing, 1 TD

10. Dak Prescott vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 220 yards passing, 25 yards rushing, 2 TDs

Waiver-Wire Target: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (owned in 30 percent of Yahoo leagues)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen didn't have the kind of day running that fantasy owners would have liked against the Detroit Lions. He only produced 16 yards on nine carries. He rushed for more than 99 yards in each of his previous three contests.

This doesn't mean that the Bills aren't going to turn him loose against the rival New England Patriots, though. Buffalo would love nothing more than to play spoiler against the Patriots, and allowing Allen to use all his tools is the best way to do that.

While playing in New England will make things more difficult for Allen, he should be able to put up a decent fantasy performance. The Patriots have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

Projection: 140 yards passing, 80 yards rushing, 1 TD

Running Backs

1. Ezekiel Elliott vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 140 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 55 yards receiving, 2 TDs

2. Christian McCaffrey vs. Atlanta Falcons: 110 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 2 TDs

3. Todd Gurley at Arizona Cardinals: 130 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 25 yards receiving, 2 TDs

4. Nick Chubb vs. Cincinnati Bengals: 140 yards rushing, 1 reception, 10 yards receiving, 2 TDs

5. Phillip Lindsay at Oakland Raiders: 130 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD

6. Joe Mixon at Cleveland Browns: 100 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD

7. Saquon Barkley at Indianapolis Colts: 90 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD

8. Alvin Kamara vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 40 yards rushing, 7 receptions, 65 yards receiving, 1 TD

9. Chris Carson vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 120 yards rushing, 2 receptions, 20 yards receiving, 1 TD

10. Dalvin Cook at Detroit Lions: 80 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 30 yards receiving, 1 TD

11. Derrick Henry vs. Washington Redskins: 150 yards rushing, 1 TD

12. Tarik Cohen at San Francisco 49ers: 60 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

13. David Johnson vs. Los Angeles Rams: 80 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 30 yards receiving, 1 TD

14. Marlon Mack vs. New York Giants: 120 yards rushing, 1 TD

15. Sony Michel vs. Buffalo Bills: 100 yards rushing, 1 TD

16. Melvin Gordon vs. Baltimore Ravens: 60 yards rushing, 2 receptions, 20 yards receiving, 1 TD

17. James White vs. Buffalo Bills: 20 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 40 yards receiving, 1 TD

18. Mark Ingram vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD

19. Leonard Fournette at Miami Dolphins: 80 yards rushing, 1 TD

20. Damien Williams at Seattle Seahawks: 60 yards rushing, 1 reception, 10 yards receiving, 1 TD

Waiver-Wire Target: Elijah McGuire, New York Jets (33 percent owned)

With Isaiah Crowell on injured reserve, Elijah McGuire has taken over as the lead running back for the New York Jets. He hasn't exactly been stellar, but if you can find a starting running back at this point in the season, he's worth grabbing.

Last week, McGuire only had 71 total yards, but he also had three receptions and a touchdown. That kind of performance is going to keep him in the starting lineup, likely for the remainder of the season.

"He's very consistent," Jets offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates said of McGuire, per Kevin Kernan of the New York Post.

Expect McGuire to have another serviceable, if unexciting outing against a middle-of-the-pack Green Bay Packers run defense (17th-most fantasy points allowed at the position).

Projection: 55 yards rushing, 1 reception, 10 yards receiving, 1 TD

Wide Receivers

1. DeAndre Hopkins at Philadelphia Eagles: 8 receptions, 130 yards receiving, 2 TDs

2. Michael Thomas vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8 receptions, 140 yards receiving, 1 TD

3. Julio Jones at Carolina Panthers: 7 receptions, 130 yards receiving, 1 TD

4. Amari Cooper vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6 receptions, 140 yards receiving, 1 TD

5. Antonio Browns at New Orleans Saints: 5 receptions, 100 yards receiving, 1 TD

6. Adam Thielen at Detroit Lions: 5 receptions, 90 yards receiving, 1 TD

7. Tyreek Hill at Seattle Seahawks: 5 receptions, 90 yards receiving, 1 TD

8. Tyler Lockett vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 5 receptions, 85 yards receiving, 1 TD

9. Odell Beckham Jr. at Indianapolis Colts: 5 receptions, 75 yards receiving, 1 TD

10. Keenan Allen vs. Baltimore Ravens: 8 receptions, 120 yards receiving

11. JuJu Smith-Schuster at New Orleans Saints: 6 receptions, 110 yards receiving

12. T.Y. Hilton vs. New York Giants: 4 receptions, 70 yards receiving, 1 TD

13. Jarvis Landry vs. Cincinnati Bengals: 5 receptions, 60 yards receiving, 1 TD

14. Mike Evans at Dallas Cowboys: 7 receptions, 90 yards receiving

15. Robert Woods at Arizona Cardinals: 6 receptions, 100 yards receiving

16. Stefon Diggs at Detroit Lions: 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

17. Tyler Boyd at Cleveland Browns: 6 receptions, 90 yards receiving

18. Brandin Cooks at Arizona Cardinals: 6 receptions, 90 yards receiving

19. Doug Baldwin vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 5 receptions, 95 yards receiving

20. D.J. Moore vs. Atlanta Falcons: 5 receptions, 90 yards receiving

Waiver-Wire Target: Robert Foster, Buffalo Bills (13 percent owned)

Allen hasn't been the most consistent passer during his brief NFL career, but he has the arm talent to be absolutely lethal with the deep ball. This is precisely why speedy rookie Robert Foster has thrived over the past few weeks.

Foster had another terrific day in Week 15, hauling in four passes for 108 yards and a touchdown. It marked the third time in four games he's topped 90 yards and the second time in that span he's found the end zone.

Foster doesn't have the easiest matchup—the Patriots have allowed the 10-fewest fantasy points to receivers—but it will only require one big play for Foster to be fantasy viable in Week 16.

Projection: 3 receptions, 70 yards receiving, 1 TD

Tight Ends

1. Eric Ebron vs. New York Giants: 4 receptions, 55 yards receiving, 2 TDs

2. Travis Kelce at Seattle Seahawks: 6 receptions, 95 yards receiving, 1 TD

3. Rob Gronkowski vs. Buffalo Bills: 5 receptions, 80 yards receiving, 1 TD

4. George Kittle vs. Chicago Bears: 5 receptions, 75 yards receiving, 1 TD

5. Jared Cook vs. Denver Broncos: 5 receptions, 70 yards receiving, 1 TD

7. Zach Ertz vs. Houston Texans: 4 receptions, 65 yards receiving, 1 TD

8. David Njoku vs. Cincinnati Bengals: 4 receptions 60 yards receiving, 1 TD

9. Ian Thomas vs. Atlanta Falcons: 6 receptions, 80 yards receiving

10. C.J. Uzomah at Cleveland Browns: 6 receptions, 70 yards receiving

Waiver-Wire Target: Matt LaCosse (7 percent owned)

The Denver Broncos have endured multiple injuries at the tight end position, which has left them with journeyman Matt LaCosse as the starter.

LaCosse actually fared fairly well against the Cleveland Browns in Week 15, catching four passes for 43 yards. This week, he'll face a brutally bad Oakland Raiders defense—one that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

View LaCosse's floor in the 10-point range, but he does carry quality upside in this favorable matchup.

Projection: 4 receptions, 30 yards receiving, 1 TD