Fantasy Football Week 15: Confident Calls on Toughest Lineup Decisions

It's that all-important time in the NFL season. No, we're not talking about the playoff push. We're talking about the fantasy football playoffs—naturally.

If you've made it this far, pat yourself on the back. Don't get too comfortable, though, because now it's win-or-go-home time.

No matter how poorly your top picks have performed of late (thanks for only running Todd Gurley 11 times, Sean McVay!), you're going to stick by them in the postseason. The tough decisions are going to come down to your borderline starters and mid-level flex options.

We're here to help by examining some fringe starters with tough matchups. We'll determine who to start and who to sit according to factors such as opponent, performance to date and player health. Our choices are based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring formats.

QB Baker Mayfield at Denver Broncos

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Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield has been a solid streaming option ever since Hue Jackson was jettisoned. However, he's only had one touchdown pass in each of his last two games, and he's set to go up against a stout Denver Broncos defense.

Here's the thing, though. That Broncos defense hasn't exactly been a lockdown unit against opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens dropped 332 yards and two touchdowns with one interception on it last week.

With cornerbacks Chris Harris and Isaac Yiadom both injured for Denver, Mayfield should be able to find some big plays Saturday night. With quarterbacks like Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers facing even tougher matchups this week, Mayfield becomes a tremendous streaming option once again.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 310 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Start Over: Aaron Rodgers, Marcus Mariota

QB Nick Mullens vs. Seattle Seahawks

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Speaking of Mullens and his big day against Denver, the former undrafted quarterback may look like an enticing streaming option because of it. Don't be fooled, however, as a date with the rival Seattle Seahawks isn't going to leave much room for playmaking.

Seattle has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and the Seahawks defense has gotten better over the course of the year. If you saw the Seahawks shut down Kirk Cousins on Monday night, you have a good idea of what that defense is capable of.

Cousins passed for 208 yards and one touchdown, but most of that came in garbage time. While Mullens could spend much of the game in garbage time, it's unlikely Seattle will be willing to let a division rival rack up stats.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 215 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT

Sit For: Derek Carr, Case Keenum

RB Jaylen Samuels vs. New England Patriots

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The Pittsburgh Steelers refuse to rule out running back James Conner this week against the New England Patriots. According to NFL Media's Aditi Kinkhabwala, head coach Mike Tomlin will make his determination based on this week's practices.

We're not too confident that Conner will go, though, and that leaves Jaylen Samuels as a quality flex option in Week 15. While the rookie isn't as valuable in standard leagues, his PPR upside makes him a safe start.

Against the Oakland Raiders last week, Samuels only rushed for 28 yards on 11 carries. However, he added seven receptions for another 64 yards. Expect him to have a similar stat line against the New England Patriots.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 25 yards rushing, 6 receptions, 66 yards receiving

Start Over: Derrick Henry, Marlon Mack

RB Kenyan Drake at Minnesota Vikings

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Kenyan Drake accounted for the last 52 yards (and touchdown) of the Miami Miracle to beat the Patriots on Sunday. If that's your lasting impression of the Miami Dolphins running back, you may be tempted to start him.

However, Drake wasn't very productive up to that point, amassing just six carries, one catch and 27 total yards. In addition, he was largely touchdown-dependent in the games leading up to the Miami Miracle. Now he's facing a tough Minnesota Vikings defense that is desperate for a win.

Minnesota has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

Essentially, you'll be banking on Drake finding the end zone in order to justify a start this week. That's never a favorable proposition.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 32 yards rushing, 2 receptions, 12 yards receiving

Sit For: Tevin Coleman, Dion Lewis

RB Doug Martin at Cincinnati Bengals

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It can be tricky to sort out the Raiders' backfield situation because Jalen Richard, Doug Martin and DeAndre Washington have all seen touches in recent weeks. However, Richard has emerged as the primary receiving option and Martin as the leading rusher.

We like Martin against the Cincinnati Bengals for a couple of reasons. For starters, Oakland is likely to lean on the run a bit more on the road and in the poor Cincinnati weather. That favors Martin, who has a rushing touchdown in each of his last three games.

Also, the Bengals run defense is terrible. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs. View Martin as an above-average flex option in Week 15.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 78 yards rushing, 1 reception, 12 yards receiving, 1 TD

Start Over: Adrian Peterson, Ito Smith

RB Peyton Barber at Baltimore Ravens

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Like Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Peyton Barber has emerged as his team's leading rusher. While he hasn't been a regular fantasy standout, Barber has rushed for at least 40 yards in five straight games and has scored a rushing touchdown in three out of the last four.

On paper, at least, Barber's floor is mildly appealing.

Unfortunately, Barber's matchup with the Baltimore Ravens is not at all appealing. The Buccaneers will be on the road, and they'll be going against a defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 45 yards rushing, 1 reception, 8 yards receiving

Sit For: Jalen Richard, Kenneth Dixon

WR Curtis Samuel vs. New Orleans Saints

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The Carolina Panthers have made a concerted effort to get the ball to receivers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel more in recent weeks, and the strategy has paid dividends for the speedy Samuel. The former Ohio State standout has produced at least four catches and 80 receiving yards in each of his last two matchups.

Samuel also has two receiving touchdowns over the past four weeks.

While Cam Newton's shoulder injury does take away some of Samuel's deep-ball potential, he should still be heavily targeted against the rival New Orleans Saints. That's great news for Samuel managers, as the second-year man should be able to make the most of his opportunities.

No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing receivers this season than New Orleans.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 5 receptions, 82 yards receiving, 1 TD

Start Over: Alshon Jeffery, Calvin Ridley

WR Adam Humphries at Baltimore Ravens

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Buccaneers receiver Adam Humphries has been a fine streaming option in recent weeks. He's found the end zone in three of the past four weeks and has had a minimum of three receptions in those games. However, his last game was a down one: He had four receptions for just 42 yards.

Expect this week to be another downer for the Clemson product.

Again, this has a lot to do with the road matchup with Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. It's likely to be a long day for the Buccaneers passing attack, and an underwhelming one for Humphries owners.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 4 receptions, 46 yards receiving

Sit For: Josh Reynolds, Kenny Golladay

TE Ian Thomas vs. New Orleans Saints

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Ever since starting tight end Greg Olsen landed on injured reserve, the Panthers have had to lean on rookie Ian Thomas. Fortunately, the first-year pass-catcher has risen to the challenge.

"He’s had a chance to learn and reflect," head coach Ron Rivera said, per Max Henson of the team's official website. "And you can see the improvement."

Thomas was a major piece of the offense against the Browns last week, catching nine passes for 77 yards. He's likely to be an equally large part of the equation against the rival Saints, and that makes him a solid TE or even flex option in Week 15.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards receiving

Start Over: Evan Engram, Trey Burton

Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST vs. New England Patriots

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The Steelers defense/special teams has had some strong fantasy outings this season, due in large part to the pass-rushing of guys like T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree. Pittsburgh has 45 sacks as a team this season.

However, the Steelers haven't been very good defensively during their three-game losing streak, and they now face a desperate Patriots team that has traditionally had its way with the Pittsburgh defense. We have to take past results with a grain of salt, of course, but Tom Brady and Co. have averaged 29.5 points against Pittsburgh over the last four meetings.

While the Patriots defense has had its struggles this season, the offense has rarely been an issue. Expect New England to approach 30 points once again against Pittsburgh while also taking care of the ball.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 31 points allowed, 2 sacks

Sit For: Cleveland Browns, New York Giants

*Fantasy matchup statistics via FantasyPros.