Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 12, 2018

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins scrambles against the Seattle Seahawks in the first half of an NFL football game, Monday, Dec. 10, 2018, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

The Minnesota Vikings once owned great home-field advantages in the cold at old Metropolitan Stadium and indoors at the Metrodome. And now they're working on creating that same edge at U.S. Bank Stadium, going 16-6 straight up and 15-6-1 against the spread in two-plus seasons at their new home.

Minnesota hopes for more of the same when it hosts the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.


NFL point spread: The Vikings opened as eight-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.6-13.6 Vikings (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami just picked up its biggest victory of this season, a wild 34-33 decision over rival New England last week.

The Dolphins trailed the Patriots 6-0, 13-7, 20-14, 27-21 and 33-28 with 16 seconds left in the game. But they then won it on a crazy 69-yard touchdown as time ran out.

Miami amassed 412 yards of total offense, including 189 on the ground, in winning outright as a nine-point dog.

Two weeks ago, the Dolphins beat Buffalo 21-17, covering as three-point favorites, and three weeks ago they lost to Indianapolis 27-24 but covered as nine-point dogs. Miami is 3-0 ATS its last three times out.

At 7-6 overall, the Dolphins trail 7-6 Baltimore by just a tiebreaker in the battle for the second AFC wild-card slot.


Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota used a 5-2 run into November to put itself in good position for a playoff berth, but it now seeks to halt a two-game losing skid after falling at Seattle on Monday night 21-7.

The Vikings only trailed the Seahawks 6-0 well into the fourth quarter, and they had chances to score but just couldn't get it done, letting the game slip away late.

Minnesota actually outgained Seattle 276-274, and 40 of the yards the Vikings defense allowed came on one Russell Wilson scramble. But Minnesota also got nothing from a first-and-goal situation at the Seahawks' 4-yard line, had a field goal blocked and gave up a fumble return for a score, all when the game was still up for grabs.

The Vikings have now outgained seven of their last nine opponents.

Two weeks ago, Minnesota played New England to a 10-10 tie late into the third quarter before allowing the last 14 points of a 24-10 defeat. At 6-6-1 overall, the Vikings still cling to the No. 6 spot in the NFC playoff standings.


Smart betting pick

The Dolphins are coming off a huge emotional victory over a hated divisional rival, but that just might leave them vulnerable to a letdown this week. They're also getting outgained by 90 yards per game this season.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is outgaining opponents by 30 yards per game. The smart money here gives the points with the Vikes.


NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in the Dolphins' last three games on the road versus the Vikings.

The Vikings are 31-12-1 ATS in their last 44 games at home.

The Dolphins are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games on the road after consecutive home games.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.