NFL Predictions Week 15: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

Upsets are ripe for the picking in the NFL's Week 15 and beyond. 

Week 14 offered plenty of hints. The Miami Dolphins pulled off a miracle to take down the New England Patriots. The Oakland Raiders put down the Pittsburgh Steelers. Even teams like the New York Giants emerged with wins. 

While it is fun for fans to think NFL teams will flirt with tanking this time of year while having an eye on draft position, the reality seasoned bettors know is players thriving in the spoiler role. 

And given the matchups in Week 15, more than a few spoiler possibilities stick out as items for bettors to exploit. 

Week 15 NFL Odds

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City (-3.5)  | O/U 53

Houston (-6.5) at N.Y. Jets | O/U 41

Cleveland at Denver (-3)  | O/U 45.5

Dallas at Indianapolis (-3) | O/U 47

Miami at Minnesota (-8)  | O/U n/a

Oakland at Cincinnati (-3) | O/U 46

Tennessee at N.Y. Giants (-3) | O/U 43.5

Washington at Jacksonville (-7) | O/U 36

Arizona at Atlanta (-9) | O/U 44

Detroit at Buffalo (-3)  | O/U 38.5

Green Bay at Chicago (-6) | O/U 45

Tampa Bay at Baltimore (-8) | O/U 46.5

Seattle (-4.5) at San Francisco | O/U n/a

New England (-1) at Pittsburgh | O/U n/a

Philadelphia at L.A. Rams (-9.5) | O/U 53.5

New Orleans (-6.5) at Carolina | O/U 52

Seattle (-4.5) at San Francisco

Cleveland at Denver (-3)

Ron Schwane/Associated Press

This should raise a few eyebrows from folks in the know: the Cleveland Browns, despite being on the road, are only three-point underdogs. 

It makes perfect sense, really. The Browns have playoff hopes at this point of the season thanks to a 5-7-1 record and wins in three of their last four outings. This includes going to Cincinnati and picking up a win and later welcoming Carolina to town and escaping by six points. 

Baker Mayfield's offense gets most of the credit, especially since a coaching change occurred and Freddie Kitchens took the controls as offensive coordinator: 

While winning three of four, Mayfield has nine touchdowns against three interceptions, the latter coming in a loss to Houston on the road while he tried to play the hero. From a season-long perspective, he's getting 4.6 yards per carry from his ground game, and not only do seven different targets have multiple scoring catches, five of those check in at three apiece. 

Mayfield's versatility should be able to help the Browns maneuver past a pressure-filled Denver Broncos defense. Those Broncos have been all over the place as of late, winning three of four with wins over a team like the Los Angeles Chargers, but losing at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers. 

One constant has been the offense having problems with Case Keenum under center, as he's thrown multiple touchdowns just five times this year and once dating back to the start of November. With the way Mayfield's offense keeps playing, the Broncos won't be able to take to the air and keep pace, so the smaller-than-expected line here makes some sense. 

Prediction: Browns 28, Broncos 20

Dallas at Indianapolis (-3)

Ron Jenkins/Associated Press

There is a stark difference in the resumes of these two playoff contenders. 

While the Indianapolis Colts always have a chance because Andrew Luck is one of the NFL's best, the fact they have won six of their last seven is only so impressive.

Of those six, the Colts have been fortunate to play Buffalo, Oakland, Jacksonville, Miami and Tennessee with Blaine Gabbert taking the majority of the snaps. Over the seven games, they split with Jacksonville, too. 

The only major win that pops out is a victory on the road against Houston last time out, where Luck did what Luck does by throwing for 399 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, putting him at 3,759, 34 and 13, respectively. 

But the Cowboys have won five in a row and the feat looks a bit more difficult. Over that span, they have swept Philadelphia, ripped up Washington without its starting quarterback and pounced on New Orleans during a short week for a Thursday game. 

Other than level of competition, the Cowboys are simply more impressive because it boils down to a full-team effort—especially after the arrival of Amari Cooper: 

Cooper has breathed new life into Dak Prescott, who over the last three games has six touchdowns and two interceptions—it's impressive considering he's only at 17 and seven on the season, respectively. Behind him, Ezekiel Elliott has continued to bulldoze anything and anyone, averaging 4.7 yards per carry with 1,262 yards and six scores. 

Quietly, Dallas has also feasted on the defensive side of the ball, tallying 35 sacks and only allowing 18.9 points per game, the second-best mark in the league. While Luck will be able to do some damage, he's also doing this on his lonesome as usual. The rejuvenated Cowboys offense will be able to pull ahead in large part because the defense will force a few key stops throughout the game. 

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Colts 21

Oakland at Cincinnati (-3)

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The Oakland Raiders were an upset special a week ago in large part because the Pittsburgh Steelers always find a way to go down in spectacular fashion. 

They are one this week because they simply play a terrible team. 

Said team is the Cincinnati Bengals, losers of five in a row and seven of eight, the exception a three-point escape of lowly Tampa Bay in which the Buccaneers pulled off a furious comeback, which resulted in A.J. Green suffering an initial toe injury that winded up ending his season. 

The saga mentioned there is symbolic of the season as a whole. The Bengals lost Andy Dalton for the season while he attempted to recover a botched snap. Starters like Tyler Eifert, Preston Brown, Ryan Glasgow, Carl Lawson and Tyler Kroft are also some of the 16 names on injured reserve. Starting left tackle Cordy Glenn and linebacker Vontaze Burfict are two of the names not on injured reserve but have been missing time, too. 

By comparison, the 3-10 Raiders look great. They have won two of their last four, Derek Carr has thrown eight touchdowns with no picks over his last four outings and in wins the defense has only let up 21 points. 

Carr, in particular, gives the Raiders a chance each time out when his line actually protects him: 

The Raiders don't have to worry about pressure from a hobbled Cincinnati roster, nor should they worry about much of a fight at all. While they play the spoiler, Cincinnati has simply gone through the motions with Jeff Driskel under center.

The trends should continue here, with the Raiders likely exploiting the middle of the field with backs and tight ends en route to a huge day. 

Prediction: Raiders 35, Bengals 20

Odds via OddsShark