Houston Texans vs. New York Jets: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 11, 2018

HOUSTON, TX - DECEMBER 09:  Deshaun Watson #4 of the Houston Texans rushes with the ball against the Indianapolis Colts during the first quarter at NRG Stadium on December 9, 2018 in Houston, Texas.  (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Bob Levey/Getty Images

As part of their recent nine-game winning streak, the Houston Texans won four in a row on the road, going 3-1 against the spread. The New York Jets, on the other hand, are 0-3 both straight up and ATS over their last three home games and 0-2 ATS this season as home dogs. The Jets are home dogs again for Saturday afternoon's tussle with the Texans.

NFL point spread: The Texans opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.4-14.1 Texans (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Texans can cover the spread

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Houston is looking to bounce back after suffering its first loss since September last week, a 24-21 decision to the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans led early 7-0 but gave up the next 17 points of the game to trail by 10 at halftime. They pulled to within three points twice in the second half, the second time with two-and-a-half minutes to go but couldn't get the ball back.

On the day, Houston got beat along most of the stat sheet but out-rushed the Colts 89-50. So the Texans have now out-rushed each of their last seven opponents, going 5-2 ATS along the way. At 9-4 overall Houston now leads the AFC South by two games over Indianapolis and the Tennessee Titans, with three games to play.


Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York is coming off its first victory since October, a 27-23 come-from-behind decision at Buffalo last week. The Jets spotted the Buffalo Bills the first seven points of the game, trailed 14-3 early and 20-13 into the fourth quarter. But they tied the game on a scrambling Sam Darnold touchdown pass, took the lead on a short Elijah McGuire scoring run with just over a minute to go and won it with an interception on Buffalo's last-gasp drive.

On the day, New York got beat along most of the stat sheet but won the turnover battle 3-2 and got help from special teams units which produced two long kickoff returns, resulting in 10 points, and a blocked field goal.

Two weeks ago, the Jets led Tennessee 22-13 into the fourth quarter but lost 26-22 on a Titans touchdown in the last minute. And three weeks ago, they played New England to a 13-13 tie late into the third quarter before fading into a 27-13 defeat. So they're 2-1 ATS at online betting sites their last three times out and could have covered against the Patriots.

At 4-9 overall New York is looking to create some momentum to carry forward into next season.


Smart betting pick

Houston just had a nine-game winning streak snapped, while New York just broke a six-game losing streak. But the Texans should be prime for a rebound, while the Jets might be ripe for a letdown. The smart money here at sports betting sites plays Houston.


NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in four of the Jets' last five games at home.

The Jets are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.

The total has gone over in four of the Jets' last five games at home.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.