Week 13 NFL Picks: Over/Under Advice, Final-Score Predictions and Odds

If Thursday Night Football is any sign, things aren't going to be simple for NFL fans making picks or playing spreads. 

The first game of Week 13 saw the New Orleans Saints favored by seven points ahead of a meeting with the Dallas Cowboys, yet those Saints broke a streak of 30 or more points in five straight games and 10 straight wins outright while going down 13-10. 

After a surprise there plus the usual line movement throughout the week as bets come in, would-be bettors and the pick hunters don't have an easy task at hand. Let's provide an assist by running down the full list of lines and zooming on a few of the more difficult matchups. 

Week 13 NFL Odds

Denver (-5.5) at Cincinnati  | O/U 43

Arizona at Green Bay (-14) | O/U 44.5

Baltimore at Atlanta (-1.5) | O/U 49

Buffalo at Miami (-3.5) | O/U 40.5

Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay | O/U 56

Chicago (-4) at N.Y. Giants | O/U n/a

Cleveland at Houston (-6) | O/U 48

Indianapolis (-5) at Jacksonville | O/U 48

L.A. Rams (-10) at Detroit | O/U 54.5

Kansas City (-15.5) at Oakland | O/U 55.5

N.Y. Jets at Tennessee (-8) | O/U n/a

San Francisco at Seattle (-10) | O/U 46

Minnesota at New England (-5.5) | O/U 48.5

L.A. Chargers at Pittsburgh (-3.5) | O/U 51.5

Washington at Philadelphia (-6) | O/U 44

Baltimore at Atlanta (-1.5)

Bill Feig/Associated Press

This one has swung all the way in favor of the Atlanta Falcons over the course of the week after the home team originally being slotted as underdogs. 

That makes for a nice upset pick for savvy bettors. 

The line moving likely most has to do with rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson once again starting for the Baltimore Ravens. On paper, most rookie quarterbacks might go down in a possible shootout with Matt Ryan. 

But Jackson isn't most rookies. 

In fact, Jackson has won his last two starts, confusing defenses with his ability to hurt them in all facets. There isn't a ton of usable film on him yet, nor are there many quarterbacks like him, which has led to some interesting statistical feats atop the wins: 

Granted, it helps Jackson's two starts have come against bad Cincinnati and Cleveland teams, but try not to forget the Falcons aren't much better. 

Those Falcons keep getting good play from Ryan, who is completing 71.4 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns and just five interceptions. But the lack of a running game and a defense limited by injuries has led to a 4-7 mark, including three consecutive losses as of late.

A three-win streak that started in Week 6 doesn't pass the smell test either, with two of those coming against iffy Tampa Bay and New York Giants squads. 

A Falcons defense ranked 29th while allowing 27.9 points per game couldn't stop Cleveland rookie Baker Mayfield from throwing for three scores with no picks a few weeks back. Jackson should have an effective day of his own while keeping the Ravens in the playoff race. 

Prediction: Ravens 30, Falcons 17

Buffalo at Miami (-3.5)

Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press

The Miami Dolphins were seven-point favorites when this line opened. 

What changed? 

The Buffalo Bills, mostly. 

Josh Allen is another rookie quarterback experiencing some success as of late, as he entered the team's last game and totaled two touchdowns against what is supposed to be a strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense, topped off by 99 rushing yards and a score on the ground. 

Of course, there was a little personal motivation there as well: 

But the Bills don't need any personal storylines to beat the Dolphins. A combination of the Bills' reputation and Miami playing at home seemed to craft the original line before things started backtracking.

The reality is the Dolphins are one of the NFL's worst teams even with a 5-6 record. They started the year on a three-win tear against a so-so schedule including Tennessee, New York Jets and Oakland. They have gone on to lose five of seven, with the only thing stopping a four-game skid more recently being another game against those Jets. The three losses out of the last four came while coughing up 32, 42 and 27 points. 

The Dolphins do have Ryan Tannehill back under center, but he's going to have a hard time carrying a defense that allows 25.7 points per game, not to mention 139.8 rushing yards—a bottom-five mark. 

With Allen's ability as a rusher and LeSean McCoy added to the mix, the Bills should not have any problems dominating the pace on the ground and pulling off an "upset" that isn't too hard to see coming. 

Prediction: Bills 24, Dolphins 20 

San Francisco at Seattle (-10)

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

It's hard not to like the Seattle Seahawks here no matter how much the line moves. 

And it's moving. 

Seattle only opened as eight-point favorites but we've gone to double-digit territory as the week has progressed. Plenty of factors play into this, but the fact the 49ers only have two wins is a big part of it, especially considering those wins came against bad Detroit and Oakland teams. 

Speaking of bad teams, San Francisco's latest two-game skid came against the New York Giants and Tampa Bay, a pair of teams with no more than four wins this year. The Nick Mullens fad was a textbook flash in the pan, as he's posted two touchdowns and four interceptions over the last two losses. 

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have trended in the opposite direction, winning two in a row thanks to victories against solid Green Bay and Carolina teams. It would likely be six in a row if a pair of losses hadn't seen them encounter both strong Los Angeles teams. Maybe nine in a row if they hadn't encountered the Rams in Week 5 as well. 

As always, the key is Russell Wilson: 

Wilson is up to a 66.7 completion percentage with 25 touchdowns and five interceptions on the year while the team has breathed life into the running game, which now averages 4.6 yards per carry. 

In the grand scheme of things, Seattle getting better as the season continues is a typical occurrence. A year ago, the Seahawks beat the 49ers 12-9 in Week 2, only to open it up in the rematch via a 24-13 win in Week 12. 

Not stuck in a rebuild like most expected, the Seahawks should keep the late-season surge going by swatting away a rival thanks to Wilson's MVP-esque play. 

Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 13

Odds via OddsShark