Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 29, 2018

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - NOVEMBER 25: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers passes the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the game at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 25, 2018 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers own one of the starkest home/road splits in the NFL this season. While they're 0-6 straight up and 1-4-1 against the spread away from home, they're 4-0-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at Lambeau Field.

Luckily for the Packers, they get the Arizona Cardinals on the Frozen Tundra on Sunday afternoon.


NFL point spread: The Packers opened as 14-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.6-10.7 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals are difficult to make a case for at the moment with three straight losses, including a 45-10 defeat against the Chargers last week.

Arizona actually drove opening possession of the game 76 yards to a touchdown and led 10-0 after one quarter. But the Cards came up empty from there in a performance better left forgotten.

Two weeks ago, Arizona led Oakland 21-20 late into the fourth quarter but lost 23-21 on a field goal at the buzzer. Three weeks ago, the Cardinals gave the Chiefs a good game in Kansas City, losing 26-14 but covering as 16-point dogs. Just before that, Arizona beat San Francisco 18-15.

Despite last week's washout, it appears the Cardinals may be making some progress in the latter stages of their first season under the new coaching regime with a rookie starting quarterback. At 2-9 overall, Arizona is playing for a brighter future.


Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers are a tough case themselves at the moment, with just one win over their last five games after falling at Minnesota last week 24-17.

Green Bay drove its second possession of the game 68 yards to a touchdown and played the Vikings to a 14-14 tie into halftime. But the Packers gave up the first 10 points of the second half, got within one score with two minutes to go but couldn't get the ball back.

The big play of the game came early in the second half, when in a tie game Green Bay went for it on a 4th-and-1 from its own 44-yard line. Unfortunately the Packers got stuffed, Minnesota immediately drove to a field goal and Green Bay could not respond.

Two weeks ago, the Packers led the Seahawks in Seattle nearly the entire game but lost 27-24. And just before that, they beat Miami at Lambeau 31-12, covering as 11-point favorites.

At 4-6-1 overall, Green Bay is in desperation mode if it wants to make the playoffs.


Smart betting pick

Double-digit favorites are 14-3 SU and 10-6-1 ATS so far this NFL season. However, the Packers probably shouldn't be favored by double digits over anybody at the moment as they're banged-up on offense and their defense is still iffy.

Green Bay may well still win this game outright, but the smarter money takes the points.


NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in 24 of the Packers' last 34 games.

The total has gone over in five of the Cardinals' last seven games.

The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in December.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.