Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 28, 2018

LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 19:  Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass against the Los Angeles Rams in the first quarter of the game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 19, 2018 in Los Angeles, California.  (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs own the advantage in the recent rivalry with the Oakland Raiders, winning six of the last seven meetings straight up and going 5-2 against the spread along the way. But the Chiefs are favored by a big number for Sunday afternoon's meeting at the Oakland Coliseum.


NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 13-point favorites; the total was 56.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 37.5-12.8 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is shooting to bounce back from that epic 54-51 loss to the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 11 and will return after having Week 12 off.

The Chiefs trailed L.A. 13-0 out of the gate, led 17-16, trailed 40-30 then led 51-47 with just under three minutes to go. But Kansas City gave up a Rams touchdown with just under two minutes left to fall behind then threw interceptions on its last two possessions.

Kansas City actually outgained Los Angeles 448-379 but gave up two Rams defensive touchdowns and lost the turnover battle 5-2.

The Chiefs have now outgained and outrushed four of their last five opponents. They're also 4-2 SU and 5-0-1 ATS on the road this season.

At 9-2 overall, Kansas City leads New England by one game in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.


Why the Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders snapped a five-game losing streak two weeks ago with a victory at Arizona but now look to bounce back after falling at Baltimore in Week 12, 34-17.

Oakland actually drove the opening possession of the game 81 yards to a touchdown and only trailed 20-17 into the fourth quarter. But the Raiders gave up a Ravens touchdown with 11 minutes left, and a subsequent Baltimore fumble return for another score created a somewhat misleading final tally.

Unfortunately for their financial backers, that late Ravens defensive touchdown cost the Raiders the cover as 13-point dogs.

The Oakland defense only really gave up 20 points; Baltimore also scored on a punt return. Two weeks ago, the Raiders outgained the Cardinals 325-282 and won time of possession by a 36/24 split in a 23-21 win.

At 2-9 overall, Oakland is trying to create some momentum it can carry forward into next season.


Smart betting pick

So far this NFL season, double-digit favorites are 14-3 SU and 10-6-1 ATS. However, that seems like a trend due for a correction. Also, the large spreads might be catching up to the Chiefs, who are only 1-2-1 ATS their last four times out.

The smart money here takes the points with the divisional home dog.


NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in four of the Chiefs' last five games versus the Raiders.

The total has gone under in 13 of the Raiders' last 18 games.

The Raiders are 1-14 SU in their last 15 games as an underdog.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.