A huge Sunday night matchup will take place in Pittsburgh as the Steelers (7-3-1) look to bounce back from their first loss in seven games against the Los Angeles Chargers (8-3) as small home favorites at sportsbooks.
The Steelers are still in contention for one of the top two seeds in the AFC despite losing 24-17 to the Denver Broncos on the road last week, while the Chargers have won seven of their last eight.
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.4-21.0 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Chargers can cover the spread
Los Angeles has an outside chance of winning the AFC West, although a 23-22 home loss to Denver two weeks ago may prove costly in the team's pursuit of the division-leading Kansas City Chiefs.
Regardless, the Chargers are one of the NFL's hottest teams right now and performing well on both sides of the ball. Last week in a 45-10 rout of the Arizona Cardinals, quarterback Philip Rivers set a league record by completing his first 25 passes and finished 28-of-29 for 259 yards with three touchdowns.
Why the Steelers can cover the spread
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was selected in the same draft behind Rivers and New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, and he has arguably had the best career of the three. Roethlisberger's two Super Bowl rings equal Manning, and he also has the same number of touchdowns while totaling more passing yards than Rivers.
While he fell short last week against the Broncos, Roethlisberger seems to have the best shot of the three to win a Super Bowl this year, but this game is very crucial.
Smart betting pick
Both of these teams are likely headed to the playoffs, barring a late-season collapse, and they could even end up meeting again in the Wild Card Round in January. The Steelers have a much more difficult schedule down the stretch, though, making this a must-win situation at home.
Pittsburgh is 12-2 straight up in the past 14 home meetings with Los Angeles, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and has covered the spread in five of the last seven games played between the teams at Heinz Field. The Steelers will extend each of those trends with another home win and cover in this spot.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone over in three of the Chargers' last four games vs. the Steelers.
The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road vs. the Steelers.
The total has gone over in six of the Steelers' last seven games at home.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.