NFL Predictions Week 12: Fantasy Projections and Guide to Latest Vegas Odds

Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxFeatured ColumnistNovember 24, 2018

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2018, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

In terms of the on-field action, things went pretty much as expected during the NFL's Thanksgiving slate. The Chicago Bears defense did enough to best the Detroit Lions, the Dallas Cowboys staved off the Colt McCoy-led Washington Redskins and the New Orleans Saints knocked around the Atlanta Falcons.

Things were quite so predictable in the fantasy world, though. Alvin Kamara owners, for example, had to watch Dan Arnold, Austin Carr, Tommylee Louis and Keith Kirkwood catch touchdown passes while Kamara finished with just a single reception.

With three games down and two teams—the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angels Rams—on bye, how with the rest of Week 12 play out? Well, that's what we're going to examine here. We'll run down our fantasy projections for the rest of the slate, examine the latest odds and over/unders from OddsShark and make score projections for the final 12 games.

Week 12 Fantasy Projections

Top 10 Quarterbacks

1. Andrew Luck vs. Miami Dolphins: 320 yards passing, 3 TDs

2. Cam Newton vs. Seattle Seahawks: 215 yards passing, 40 yards rushing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

3. Jameis Winston vs. San Francisco 49ers: 300 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

4. Baker Mayfield at Cincinnati Bengals: 290 yards passing, 2 TDs

5. Kirk Cousins vs. Green Bay Packers: 325 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

6. Tom Brady at New York Jets: 305 yards passing, 2 TDs

7. Aaron Rodgers at Minnesota Vikings: 300 yards passing, 20 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

8. Philip Rivers vs. Arizona Cardinals: 280 yards passing, 2 TDs

9. Deshaun Watson vs. Tennessee Titans: 240 yards passing, 55 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

10. Carson Wentz vs. New York Giants: 240 yards passing, 25 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Not only is Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck back to 100 percent, but he's also back to being a weekly must-start in fantasy. He's thrown at least three touchdown passes in each of his last seven games and has just six interceptions in that span.

Unsurprisingly, Luck is also being mentioned in the MVP race. He currently holds the fifth-best odds for the award at OddsShark.

Luck doesn't have the easiest matchup this week, as the Miami Dolphins are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. However, that doesn't mean his streak of quality play won't continue.  Luck is playing perhaps the best ball of his pro career, and he'll have home-field advantage.

Aaron Rodgers had an efficient 199 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers a couple weeks ago against Miami. Luck should have an even better outing.

Top 20 Running Backs

1. Saquon Barkley at Philadelphia Eagles: 105 yards rushing, 55 yards receiving, 2 TDs

2. Nick Chubb at Cincinnati Bengals: 135 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving, 2 TDs

3. Christian McCaffrey vs. Seattle Seahawks: 95 yards rushing 65 yards receiving, 1 TD

4. David Johnson at Los Angeles Chargers: 85 yards rushing, 75 yards receiving: 1 TD

5. James Conner at Denver Broncos: 100 yards rushing, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

6. Matt Breida at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 130 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving, 1 TD

7. Marlon Mack vs. Miami Dolphins: 125 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving, 1 TD

8. Joe Mixon vs. Cleveland Browns: 80 yards rushing, 45 yards receiving, 1 TD

9. James White at New York Jets: 25 yards rushing, 90 yards receiving, 1 TD

10. Phillip Lindsay vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 95 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving, 1 TD

11. Leonard Fournette at Buffalo Bills: 85 yards rushing, 1 TD

12. Aaron Jones at Minnesota Vikings: 80 yards rushing, 1 TD

13. Dalvin Cook vs. Green Bay Packers: 65 yards rushing, 60 yards receiving

14. Sony Michel at New York Jets: 95 yards rushing

15. Duke Johnson at Cincinnati Bengals: 25 yards rushing, 60 yards receiving

16. Austin Ekeler vs. Arizona Cardinals: 50 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving

17. Gus Edwards vs. Oakland Raiders: 80 yards rushing

18. Dion Lewis at Houston Texans: 20 yards rushing, 55 yards receiving

19. Lamar Miller vs. Tennessee Titans: 50 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving

20. Chris Carson at Carolina Panthers: 70 yards rushing

Los Angeles Chargers running back Melvin Gordon would be our top choice here if he were 100 percent healthy. He's one of the true workhorse backs in the league, and the Cardinals allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Unfortunately, Gordon isn't healthy and is no lock to even play in Week 12.

"Most starting runners this time of year they're sore, something's wrong," head coach Anthony Lynn said, per Kevin Patra of NFL.com. "So we just have to decide if it's worth holding him back or letting him go."

Gordon has been dealing with hamstring and knee issues and was held out in Week 7. Though he may still play and have a productive game, we cannot recommend starting him at this point.

Backup Austin Ekeler becomes a quality start if Gordon cannot go.

Top 20 Wide Receivers

1. Odell Beckham Jr. at Philadelphia Eagles: 160 yards receiving, 2 TDs

2. Adam Thielen vs. Green Bay Packers: 120 yards receiving, 2 TDs

3. DeAndre Hopkins vs. Tennessee Titans: 140 yards receiving, 1 TD

4. Antonio Brown at Denver Broncos: 120 yards receiving, 1 TD

5. Mike Evans vs. San Francisco 49ers, 110 yards receiving, 1 TD

6. T.Y. Hilton vs. Miami Dolphins: 105 yards receiving, 1 TD

7. Davante Adams at Minnesota Vikings: 100 yards receiving, 1 TD

8. Keenan Allen vs. Arizona Cardinals: 95 yards receiving, 1 TD

9. Stefon Diggs vs. Green Bay Packers: 95 yards receiving, 1 TD

10. Julian Edelman at New York Jets: 90 yards receiving, 1 TD

11. JuJu Smith-Schuster at Denver Broncos: 105 yards receiving

12. Jarvis Landry at Cincinnati Bengals: 90 yards receiving

13: Josh Gordon at New York Jets: 90 yards receiving

14. Emmanuel Sanders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 85 yards receiving

15. Tyler Boyd vs. Cleveland Browns: 80 yards receiving

16. Alshon Jeffery vs. New York Giants: 80 yards receiving

17. Doug Baldwin at Carolina Panthers: 75 yards receiving

18. Christian Kirk at Los Angeles Chargers: 75 yards receiving

19. Courtland Sutton vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 70 yards receiving

20. Sterling Shepard at Philadelphia Eagles: 65 yards receiving

While we've had to downgrade Gordon from being our top running back, we're sticking with New York Giants wideout Odell Beckham Jr. as our top receiver. In his case, the injuries will be on the other side of the field.

The Philadelphia Eagles are dealing with numerous injuries in their secondary. They're already without cornerback Ronald Darby and safety Rodney McLeod, both of whom are on injured reserve. On Sunday, they'll be without cornerbacks Sidney Jones, Jalen Mills and Avonte Maddox as well.

These injuries further hamper an Eagles defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. Expect Beckham to have a monster outing against it.

Top 10 Tight Ends

1. George Kittle at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 120 yards receiving, 1 TD

2. Zach Ertz vs. New York Giants: 85 yards receiving, 1 TD

3. Jack Doyle vs. Miami Dolphins: 80 yards receiving, 1 TD

4. Greg Olsen vs. Seattle Seahawks: 75 yards receiving, 1 TD

5. David Njoku at Cincinnati Bengals: 65 yards receiving, 1 TD

6. Rob Gronkowski at New York Jets: 60 yards receiving, 1 TD

7. Jared Cook at Baltimore Ravens: 95 yards receiving

8. C.J. Uzomah vs. Cleveland Browns: 70 yards receiving

9. Eric Ebron vs. Miami Dolphins: 65 yards receiving

10. Vance McDonald at Denver Broncos: 65 yards receiving

There's a bit of good news for some fantasy owners this week. It appears that New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski will return to play against the New York Jets.

"I feel good. I'm ready to play. That's all," Gronkowski said, per Mike Reiss of ESPN.com.

Gronkowski hasn't played since Week 8 against the Buffalo Bills and has missed three of his last four games with a back injury. He's been a solid fantasy option when healthy, though, catching 29 passes for 448 yards and a touchdown in seven games. He should be in store for another standout performance against the rival Jets.

Week 12 Odds, Over/Unders and Predictions

Sunday, November 25

Cleveland Browns (+3, 46.5) at Cincinnati Bengals: Browns 24, Bengals 23

Seattle Seahawks (+3, 46.5) at Carolina Panthers: Panthers 25, Seahawks 22

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 37) at Buffalo Bills: Jaguars 18, Bills 12

Oakland Raiders (+10.5, 42.5) at Baltimore Ravens: Ravens 23, Raiders 18

San Francisco 49ers (+3, 54) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers 28, 49ers 24

New York Giants (+5.5, 47) at Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles 27, Giants 26

New England Patriots (-10, 47) at New York Jets: Patriots 31, Jets 20

Arizona Cardinals (+13, 44) at Los Angeles Chargers: Chargers 27, Cardinals 16

Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 51) at Indianapolis Colts: Colts 30, Dolphins 24

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 46.5) at Denver Broncos: Steelers 30, Broncos 26

Green Bay Packers (+3, 47.5) at Minnesota Vikings: Vikings 25, Packers 21

     

Monday, November 26

Tennessee Titans (+6, 41.5) at Houston Texans

The rest of the weekend is shaping up to be a competitive one. This is to be expected with five more division-rivalry games on the slate.

The only true blowout we see happening is with the Patriots over the Jets. Both teams are coming off the bye, the Patriots are getting Gronkowski and the Jets are going with journeyman quarterback Josh McCown for the second straight game, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport.

McCown passed for just 135 yards and two interceptions against the Bills in Week 10.

As Rapoport notes, the Baltimore Ravens will be going with rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson for the second consecutive week. This should lead to a close game with the Raiders, at least on the scoreboard. Baltimore will likely stick with a run-oriented game plan with Jackson under center, which means the Ravens will dominate on the field but won't run away on the scoreboard.

As far as upsets go, keep an eye on both the Green Bay Packers and the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have an emerging young offense—led by Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb—that will be facing a league-worst (449.4 yards per game allowed) Cincinnati Bengals defense.

The Packers can never be counted out in a divisional matchup when Aaron Rodgers is healthy.

*All fantasy rankings via FantasyPros.

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