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Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson throws a pass against the Green Bay Packers during the first half of an NFL football game Thursday, Nov. 15, 2018, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson throws a pass against the Green Bay Packers during the first half of an NFL football game Thursday, Nov. 15, 2018, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Week 12 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Advice on Fantasy Football Stars to Play or Bench

Chris RolingNov 22, 2018

Scoring should come easy for fantasy football owners in NFL Week 12 despite the tricky slate featuring a trio of games Thursday. 

According to OddsShark, 10 games opened with an over/under of 45 points or more, setting up a nice floor for heaps of scoring during the holiday festivities. Those Thursday games figure to favor home offenses as usual, and the weekend games shouldn't differ too much. 

Below, let's set up owners for the holiday the right way by comparing some of the best matchups out there to find the best value and outlining some start-sit calls for star players. 

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QB

Tom Brady (at NYJ) vs. Matt Ryan (at NO)Tom Brady
Andrew Luck (vs. MIA) vs. Russell Wilson (at CAR) Russell Wilson
Drew Brees (vs. ATL) vs. Cam Newton (vs. SEA)Drew Brees
Kirk Cousins (vs. GB) vs. Baker Mayfield (at CIN)Kirk Cousins
Ben Roethlisberger (at DEN) vs. Matthew Stafford (vs. CHI)Ben Roethlisberger

Star to Know: Russell Wilson, SEA (at CAR)

Other than the obvious (like buy up the quarterbacks in Atlanta vs. New Orleans), Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is a sly play against the Carolina Panthers. 

Going on the road to tackle Carolina might not seem like the best situation, but it can be easy to forget the Panthers allow the sixth-most points to quarterbacks on average this season. That includes allowances of 26.02 or more points against two of their last three opponents. 

Wilson has been steady, scoring 20 or more points in five of his last six. Fun fact—four of those actually came away from home, so this matchup is much better than it might appear on first glance. 

Star to Sit: Andy Dalton, CIN (vs. CLE)

No longer is Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton or anyone else a must-play option against the Cleveland Browns. 

It doesn't help Dalton has been all over the place this season. He scored 19.34 points last time out against Baltimore but also had just 8.92 points in two of his last four outings. 

Dalton may or may not have A.J. Green at home against a Browns defense only allowing the 16th-most points to quarterbacks this year. This one could favor the running game more than anything and Cleveland figures to apply plenty of pressure for most of the day. 

With so many options at the position, it isn't worth risking another single-digit performance. 

RB

Melvin Gordon (vs. ARI) vs. Joe Mixon (vs. CLE)Melvin Gordon
Ezekiel Elliott (vs. WAS) vs. Alvin Kamara (at ATL)Alvin Kamara
Saquon Barkley (at PHI) vs. Christian McCaffrey (vs. SEA)Saquon Barkley
Nick Chubb (at CIN) vs. David Johnson (at LAC)David Johnson
Dalvin Cook (vs. GB) vs. Adrian Peterson (at DAL)Dalvin Cook

Star to Know: Matt Breida, SF (at TB) 

Matt Breida dropped 26.7 points last time out and likely would have had bigger performances before that if he hadn't been dealing with an injury. 

Breida has double-digit outings this year despite fighting through injury and spotty playing time. He's one of the centerpieces of the 49ers attack heading into Week 12 game against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense allowing the sixth-most points to backs this year. 

The Buccaneers aren't guaranteed to put up points, so game flow should favor Breida. If not, he's viable enough in the passing game to have a big performance either way. 

Star to Sit: Adrian Peterson, WAS (at DAL) 

One might think even more carries for Adrian Peterson could only be a good thing. 

Not so. The Washington Redskins will start Colt McCoy under center, meaning defenses are free to focus on Peterson, well, all day. This means a Dallas Cowboys defense already allowing the eighth-fewest points to backs will get to tee off on the 33-year-old running back. 

Peterson has looked dominant at times this year, climbing above the 20-point mark three times. But he's also the guy who turned 19 carries into 7.9 points in Week 10. 

That tough sledding should be more of what owners see from Peterson this week as he tries to make it work behind an injured offensive line without a starting quarterback to draw the defense's attention. 

WR

Odell Beckham Jr. (at PHI) vs. Julian Edelman (at NYJ)Odell Beckham Jr.
A.J. Green (vs. CLE) vs. DeAndre Hopkins (vs. TEN)A.J. Green
Julio Jones (at NO) vs. Mike Evans (vs. SF)Mike Evans
Michael Thomas(vs. ATL) vs. Stefon Diggs (vs. GB)Michael Thomas
Kenny Golladay (vs. CHI) vs. T.Y. Hilton (vs. MIA)T.Y. Hilton

Star to Know: Josh Gordon, NE (at NYJ) 

All aboard the Josh Gordon train. 

Gordon has downright exploded with the New England Patriots over the past few outings, at least from a usage perceptive. Over his last two games, Gordon has tallied 22 targets from Tom Brady, resulting in a total of 31.6 points. 

The good vibes should keep rolling for Gordon out of a bye, as Brady is sure to go to him early and often against a New York Jets defense coughing up the seventh-most points to wideouts this season. 

Put it this way: A pair of Buffalo Bills wideouts put up double-digit performances on the Jets last time out. Gordon is a lock to hit 10 points at a minimum. 

Star to Sit: Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (at LAC) 

As expected, Larry Fitzgerald is hitting a late-season push as his rookie quarterback starts to find a rhythm and put up numbers. 

But owners will want to avoid pushing the nostalgia button too hard. 

While Fitzgerald has eight or more points in four games in a row and highs of 15.3 and 22.2 points, he's firmly a matchup-based play. And that 15.3 is highly misleading considering it came on all of four targets, two of which went for touchdowns. 

Fitzgerald has to try to shake free against a Los Angeles Chargers defense allowing the eighth-fewest points to opposing wideouts this year, which isn't going to go well on the road. 

TE

George Kittle (at TB) vs. Nick Vannett (at CAR)George Kittle
Zach Ertz (vs. NYG) vs. Rob Gronkowski (at NYJ)Zach Ertz
Cameron Brate (vs. SF) vs. Jared Cook (at BAL)Jared Cook
Jonnu Smith (at HOU vs. Jordan Reed (at DAL)Jonnu Smith
Greg Olsen (vs. SEA) vs. Eric Ebron (vs. MIA)Eric Ebron

Star to Know: Jonnu Smith, TEN (at HOU)

While he still isn't a household name, Tennessee Titans tight end Jonnu Smith is a key option for owners on a week-to-week basis 

Smith is slowly morphing into a key part of the Tennessee attack with specialized usage, turning single-digit target numbers into a minimum of 7.4 points over three consecutive games. He went from three or fewer targets with double-digit points in consecutive games to eight targets and that 7.4-point mark, establishing a nice usage trend. 

With the playbook seeming to expand, Smith now trots out against a Houston defense allowing the 12th-most points to the position and figures to play a big role in the passing game. 

Pair the superb red-zone usage with developing usage all over the field and Smith has some of the highest upside of the week. 

Star to Sit: Kyle Rudolph, MIN (vs. GB) 

Back in Week 2, Minnesota Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph had a nice 10.7-point showing against the Green Bay Packers on eight targets. He followed it up with 13.3 points the week after. 

He hasn't hit double digits since. 

Rudolph hasn't just seen his production drop, he has now had reduced target numbers over his last two games, totaling seven targets. Now he takes this usage into a rematch with the Packers, owners of a defense permitting the fourth-fewest points to his position. 

With a non-starter conversation as a floor to begin with, owners have to dismiss the idea of Rudolph's name power and look elsewhere.

All scoring info, points-against info and ownership stats courtesy of Yahoo standard leagues.  

EPIC NFL Thanksgiving Slate 🙌

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