Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 21, 2018

Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) warms up before an NFL football game against the Washington Redskins, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2018, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Mark Tenally)
Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Not too long ago the Houston Texans beat the rival Tennessee Titans five times in a row. But Tennessee is turning this series around, winning three of the last four meetings straight up, going 3-1 against the spread. In a big game in the AFC South the Texans tangle with the Titans on Monday night in Houston.


NFL point spread: The Texans opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.2-9.7 Texans (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.


Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee won back-to-back games against Dallas and New England earlier this month but now looks to bounce back this week from a 38-10 loss at Indianapolis last week. The Titans, perhaps ripe for a letdown following their big effort against the Patriots, were losing 24-0 in the second quarter and could not mount a challenge, in a performance better left forgotten.

Two weeks ago Tennessee jumped out to a 17-3 first-quarter lead on New England and never let the Patriots back in the game in a 34-10 victory. On the day the Titans out-gained New England 383-288 and ran the ball for 150 yards. And just before that Tennessee out-gained the Cowboys 340-297 and ran the ball for 125 yards in a 28-14 triumph.

So the Titans have out-gained and out-rushed three of their last four opponents, going 3-1 ATS along the way. At 5-5 overall Tennessee is basically tied with Baltimore and three other teams for the No. 6 spot in the AFC playoff standings.


Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans just extended their winning streak to seven in a row with a 23-21 victory at Washington last week. Houston scored the first 10 points of the game and led 17-7 at the half. It fell down 21-20 early in the fourth quarter but immediately drove for a field goal to re-take the lead and held on from there.

On the day the Texans out-gained the Redskins 320-278, ran the ball for 139 yards, recorded five sacks and scored on a 101-yard pick-six. Houston has now out-gained three of its last four opponents, and out-rushed each of its last four foes. It's also 3-1 ATS over that span.

At 7-3 overall the Texans lead the AFC South by two games over the Titans and Colts, and they now trail Pittsburgh by just a half game in the battle for the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoff standings.


Smart betting pick

Tennessee beat Houston back in September 20-17 but the Texans actually out-gained the Titans that day 437-283. And at the moment Houston is the much more consistent team. Also, Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota is considered questionable for this game after suffering a stinger last week. Smart money here takes the Texans.


NFL betting trends

The Titans are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. the Texans.

The total has gone under in three of the Titans' last four games vs. the Texans.

The Titans are 5-20 SU in their last 25 games vs. their division on the road.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.