Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 20, 2018

Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (10) throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, Nov. 18, 2018, in Chicago. (AP Photo/David Banks)
David Banks/Associated Press

The Detroit Lions (4-6) and Chicago Bears (7-3) will meet for the second time in 12 days when the former hosts the annual early Thanksgiving Day game, again as small home underdogs at sportsbooks. The Lions lost to the Minnesota Vikings 30-23 last Thanksgiving as 2.5-point home underdogs. Detroit beat Minnesota 16-13 the previous year as a two-point favorite.

NFL point spread: The Bears opened as three-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.0-18.4 Bears (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears are legitimate Super Bowl contenders with a healthy Khalil Mack on the field, as he has proved over the last two games since he returned from an ankle injury. In two divisional games against the Lions and Minnesota Vikings, Mack totaled seven tackles, three sacks and one forced fumble.

Keep in mind: Chicago had dropped 10 consecutive games vs. NFC North opponents prior to that. Now the Bears own a 1.5-game lead atop the division, and they are in the driver's seat heading down the final stretch.


Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit has performed much better at home with a 3-2 record compared to only 1-4 on the road. The Lions have also thrived as home underdogs recently at Ford Field, going 5-5 straight up in their last 10 games in that role dating back to 2015.

That includes wins over the Carolina Panthers 20-19 last week as four-point underdogs and against the New England Patriots 26-10 as seven-point dogs back in Week 3. It is safe to say they are not the same team that lost their season opener 48-17 to the New York Jets.


Smart betting pick

This is a tough spot for Chicago off a prime-time game on Sunday night, and Detroit is in perfect position to take advantage of the situation. In fact, the Bears will become the first team since the 1970 merger to play at 1 p.m. ET or earlier on three days' rest right after making a prime-time appearance the previous week.

Chicago will be hard-pressed just to win this rematch, so take Detroit to keep it close and at least cover the spread as a home underdog on Thursday.


NFL betting trends

The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road vs. the Lions.

The total has gone over in six of the Bears' last seven games.

The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on Thursday.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.