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Week 11 NFL Picks: Predictions for Vegas' Final Odds, Props on Sunday's Schedule
November 18, 2018
Before we get fired up for the massive Monday night clash in the NFL, there are plenty of games on the Week 11 Sunday slate that carry importance in the both playoff races.
In the NFC, the focus is centered on a clash of wild-card contenders at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and a Sunday night divisional showdown that could tip the scales in the NFC North.
Over in the AFC, the wild-card race takes center stage, as four of the five teams in contention for the No. 6 seed square off with outside chances of getting back into their respective divisions' title hunts dangling in front of them as well.
Ten of Sunday's 11 games have a team favored by seven points or less, with the New Orleans Saints sitting as the only favorite over seven points entering Sunday morning.
Week 11 Sunday Schedule and Odds
Sunday, November 18
Dallas at Atlanta (-3) (1 p.m., Fox)
Carolina (-4.5) at Detroit (1 p.m., Fox)
Tampa Bay at New York Giants (-2.5) (1 p.m., Fox)
Tennessee at Indianapolis (-1.5) (1 p.m., CBS)
Houston (-3) at Washington (1 p.m., CBS)
Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Jacksonville (1 p.m., CBS)
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-5.5) (1 p.m., CBS)
Oakland at Arizona (-5.5) (4:05 p.m., CBS)
Denver at Los Angeles Chargers (-7) (4:05 p.m., CBS)
Philadelphia at New Orleans (-7.5) (4:25 p.m., Fox)
Minnesota at Chicago (-2.5) (8:20 p.m., NBC)
All Times ET. Predictions against the spread in bold. Odds obtained from OddsShark.
Week 11 Prop Bets
Total Touchdowns in Pittsburgh-Jacksonville
When you look at the Pittsburgh Steelers' trip to face the Jacksonville Jaguars, you instinctively think defense will rule the game because of both defenses' track records.
However, offense will run the show in north Florida on Sunday, as the Steelers have scored at least 23 points in each contest during their five-game winning streak, while the Jaguars have given up at least 20 points in every defeat of their five-game losing streak.
Even though recent trends suggest there will be a good amount of touchdowns at TIAA Bank Field, the best odds for total touchdowns sit at over 5.5.
Given the way both teams have played, that's an easy bet to take during Sunday's early slate.
Total Points For Philadelphia
The Philadelphia Eagles' offensive struggles were on display throughout its Week 10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, and it won't get much better for the Eagles on the road against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon.
The Eagles have scored more than 30 points once in 2018, which is why the best odds for their total points are at over 31.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the best under odds sit at 15.5, a total the Eagles have eclipsed all but once in nine games.
Both extremes are worth taking a shot on since the Eagles could come out with a point to prove against New Orleans or fall flat once again in a raucous environment.
Prop bets via Oddschecker.
Predictions
Atlanta Wins Battle Of NFC Wild-Card Hopefuls
The Atlanta Falcons will pick up an important win in the hunt for a playoff berth Sunday against a Dallas team that won't go down without a fight.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons sit ninth in the NFC playoff picture, and although they won't jump into a playoff position Sunday, they will earn a valuable head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cowboys.
Since Dallas will play them tough, the Falcons will be involved in their sixth one-possession game at home.
However, Atlanta will be able to cover the three-point spread thanks to a fourth-quarter drive that ends in a Julio Jones touchdown reception.
Jones' two touchdown catches this season have come in the past two gameweeks, and he will double his total with an early score to set the tone on offense and a late trip to the end zone that secures the victory.
Expect the clash of NFC wild-card contenders to be close since Dallas boasts a rushing defense that gives up 3.6 yards per carry and a passing defense that's given up the second-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL.
Offensively, Dallas will build off the 410 total yards it gained against Philadelphia in Week 10, but it won't gain the separation necessary to put away the Falcons, which will open the door for a game-winning drive engineered by Ryan.
Minnesota Takes Control Of NFC North
The Minnesota Vikings will snatch away first place in the NFC North from the Chicago Bears on Sunday night at Soldier Field.
Mike Zimmer's team will come into the divisional clash with a sharper focus coming off the bye week and knowing how important the the next four games, three of which are on the road, are to its playoff hopes.
The Vikings need to beat the Bears and Green Bay Packers in their next two games to drum up confidence ahead of road clashes with the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.
Dalvin Cook will be the difference-maker for the Vikings, as he will be the rare running back to achieve success against Chicago's second-best rushing defense.
Before the bye, Cook ran for 89 yards on 10 carries against the Detroit Lions, and although yards will be hard to come by on some plays, the Florida State product will provide balance to the Minnesota offense.
With Cook thriving out of the backfield, quarterback Kirk Cousins will only have to make a few clutch throws, with Adam Thielen on the receiving end of most of them.
Although it may be easy to pick the Bears because of their recent success and home-field advantage, it's worth noting their past three wins came against the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions and New York Jets.
Mitchell Trubisky and Co. will be up for the challenge the prime-time clash presents, but the big play will elude them, while Minnesota strikes late through Thielen to open up a sizable advantage.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.