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NFL Week 11 Picks: Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions Before Thursday Night
November 15, 2018
There has been an aura about the Green Bay Packers for more than 20 years, and whether it has been Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the belief has always been than that if Green Bay was close in the fourth quarter, the game could be won.
Rodgers is still a magnificent quarterback and a great leader, but the rest of the team seems ordinary these days, as evidenced by their 4-4-1 record as they approach their Week 11 game with the Seattle Seahawks.
The Packers are coming off a home win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 10, but they looked better in recent losses to the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams than they did in the win over the Dolphins.
There is a feeling that this team is no longer capable of doing special things on a regular basis, and a game at CenturyLink Field against a Seattle team that has been competitive nearly every week could be too much for them.
At the start of the season, expectations were that the Packers could rejoin their battle against the Minnesota Vikings for the NFC North crown while the Seahawks were just a shell of their former selves.
The reality is that the Packers and Vikings are chasing an improving Chicago Bears team, while the Seahawks are not far from playoff contention.
They are coming off a 36-31 road loss to the Rams, but they were nearly the equal of a team that may be the NFL's best.
If Green Bay is going to win this game, the Packers need another strong game out of running back Aaron Jones, who carried the ball 15 times for 145 yards and two scores against the Dolphins.
The Packers have been looking for their ground game to take some of the heat off of Rodgers, and Jones looks like a legitimate threat.
The Seahawks have shown far greater offensive firepower this season than was expected. Russell Wilson has completed 66 percent of his passes with a 21-5 TD-interception ratio. He is getting help from rookie running back Rashaad Penny (108 yards vs. Los Angeles in Week 10) and explosive wideout Tyler Lockett.
Instead of coming down to a quarterback duel, this game is likely to go to the team that can unleash a running attack that will take the heat off their passers. The Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites, according to OddsShark, and we see the home team winning by a field goal and covering the narrow spread.
Week 11 Odds and Predictions
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 49 O/U): Seahawks and Over
Carolina Panthers (-4, 51) at Detroit Lions: Panthers and Over
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (NL): Ravens
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 48.5): Falcons and Under
Houston Texans (-3, 42.5) at Washington Redskins: Redskins and Over
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 47) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Steelers and Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-1.5, 52): Giants and Over
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 48.5): Titans and Under
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 46.5): Chargers and Under
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-5, 40.5): Cardinals and Under
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8.5, 56): Eagles and Over
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 45): Bears and Over
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 62): Rams and Under
Houston Texans at Washington Redskins
The Redskins are a strange team. Not because they are in first place in the NFC East, but because there has not been one lead change in any game they have played this season.
In a league where offense is the rule and quarterbacks make big plays all the time, comebacks from double-digit deficits take place on a regular basis. As a result, it is quite shocking that the team that has scored the first points in every Redskins game has never been beaten at any point.
If the Redskins are going to beat the Texans this week, look for Alex Smith to get the Redskins off to a fast start. While they have suffered significant injuries on the offensive line, Smith's experience and maturity should allow the Redskins to stay focused on their business.
Smith has a 10-3 TD-interception ratio and he has gotten excellent support from Adrian Peterson in the running game.
The Texans are a team loaded with talent, and J.J. Watt (9 sacks) and Jadeveon Clowney (5.5) are capable of shutting down any offense.
Deshaun Watson has flashed his talent this season, as he is completing 64.9 percent of his passes and has thrown 17 TDs. The Texans are waiting for him to take the next step and become consistent.
We think this could be a back-and-forth game where both teams take multiple leads. However, we like the Redskins to win and cover the three-point spread.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
The Bears were a hot mess during the coaching regimes of Marc Trestman and John Fox, but the team has advanced dramatically under first-year head coach Matt Nagy.
While Nagy benefited with the Bears able to acquire sack specialist Khalil Mack before the start of the season, the coach has done his best work with second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Many observers have had questions about the Bears signal-caller since the team drafted him in 2017, but the numbers say Trubisky has been getting the job done.
Trubisky is coming off a 355-yard, three-TD performance against the Lions in Week 10, and he has thrown for 256.0 yards per game and 19 TDs this season.
The Bears have a slew of solid receivers including Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller, and the Vikings will have their hands filled trying to slow them down.
The Vikings appear to be getting better, but they have not been the dominant team they were expected to be at the start of the season.
Former Redskin Kirk Cousins has been impressive at quarterback as he is averaging 298.3 yards per game with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions, but the Vikings may need even more from him. He has to play with a relentlessness that allows the Vikings to punish opponents when they get a lead.
The Bears have been at the bottom for a long time, and now they have a chance to show others how strong they are. Look for the Bears to get the big Sunday night win before their devoted Soldier Field home crowd.
Prop bet
We take a look at the Thursday night game between the Packers and the Seahawks for the first touchdown scorer in that game as our prop bet.
It's not a surprise that Aaron Jones is one of the co-favorites at 7-1, according to OddsChecker. Teammate Davante Adams is also at 7-1, while Doug Baldwin and Mike Davis are the top options for the Seahawks at 8-1.
Seattle wideout Tyler Lockett has the speed and explosiveness to score the opening touchdown at odds of 10-1, while Jimmy Graham is 12-1 for the Packers.
We are going to recommend Seattle rookie running back Rashaad Penny. He is coming off a 100-plus-yard effort against the Rams, and he got into the end zone in that game. Look for Penny to get his money's worth in this game and score the opening TD of the game.