Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 14, 2018

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - NOVEMBER 11: Leonard Fournette #27 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs the ball in the game against the Indianapolis Colts in the third quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 11, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Jacksonville pulled a trick last year that only one other team, an older edition of the Jaguars, had ever accomplishedbeating the Steelers twice in Pittsburgh in the same season.

The streaking Steelers get their shot at revenge on Sunday afternoon in Jacksonville, Florida.

NFL point spread: The Steelers opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.5-17.0 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

            

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh rides a five-game winning streak with five straight covers into this contest, after crushing Carolina last Thursday 52-21.

The Steelers spotted the Panthers the first seven points of the game, and they then scored the next 24 to lead 31-14 at the half. Pittsburgh scored the first 21 points out of the locker room, on its way toward some easy cash at minus-3.5.

On the night, Pittsburgh outgained the Panthers 457-242, outrushed the Panthers 138-95 and won the turnover battle 2-0, resulting in 14 Steelers points.

Pittsburgh has now outgained and outrushed each of its last five opponents, most by large margins. Also, after allowing 29 points per game through their first four games, the Steelers have held opponents to just 19 points per game during the winning streak.

Finally, Pittsburgh is 3-0 both SU and ATS its last three times out on the road.

           

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags are a tougher client to shill for at the moment, as they are the owners of a five-game losing skid after falling at Indianapolis last week 29-26.

Jacksonville fell down to the Colts in the second quarter 29-13, but it pulled to within a field goal with four minutes left in the game. The Jaguars then got the ball back and drove to the Indianapolis 23-yard line but fumbled it away, killing the comeback.

On the day, the Jaguars outgained Indianapolis 415-366, held a 24-17 edge in first downs and won time of possession by a 35/25 margin. They also pushed the spread as three-point dogs.

Leonard Fournette, in his first action back after missing four games to injury, accounted for 109 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns.

So Jacksonville is 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in the three games the running back has played in this season.

            

Smart betting pick

The Jaguars beat the Steelers twice last season by scores of 30-9 and 45-42, which would seem to give Pittsburgh plenty of motivation for this game. However, revenge is not a reliable factor when it comes to handicapping sporting events.

Also, while Jacksonville just got Fournette back, Pittsburgh may play this one without James Conner. And, of course, Le'Veon Bell isn't coming back anytime soon.

These teams are going in different directions at the moment, but in this spot smart money takes the Jags and the points.

             

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in three of the Steelers' last four games vs the Jaguars.

The Steelers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on the road vs the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home.

             

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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