Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 14, 2018

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) runs after a pass reception against the Cleveland Browns in the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 11, 2018, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
Ron Schwane/Associated Press

The Dallas Cowboys (4-5) and Atlanta Falcons (4-5) will both try to reach the .500 mark and stay in the playoff race on Sunday when they meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the site of Super Bowl 53.

The Falcons are listed as small home favorites at sportsbooks against a Cowboys team that is 0-5 straight up in their last five games after a victory.


NFL point spread: The Falcons opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.0-23.2 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.


Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Yes, Dallas has not put together consecutive wins since Week 15 of last season, but upsetting the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles 27-20 last Sunday as a 7.5-point road underdog is still impressive and deserves some kudos.

The Cowboys will now look to build off that victory, and they are long overdue two wins in a row again.

Atlanta is coming off a demoralizing 28-16 road loss to the Cleveland Browns last week as a 5.5-point favorite, so Dallas is catching its opponent in a fairly good spot with a lot more confidence heading into this matchup.


Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons have played their last two games on the road, splitting the pair with the win coming versus the Washington Redskins a couple weeks ago as 1.5-point underdogs. Sweeping them was probably too much to ask considering how inconsistent they have played this season.

Before falling at Cleveland in an upset, Atlanta was riding a three-game winning streak and appeared to be back on track after losing three straight.

The Falcons know what is at stake here and will be focused on bouncing back.


Smart betting pick

Atlanta has gone 4-0 SU and against the spread in its last four games following back-to-back road games, and that trend will stay perfect after this game.

The Falcons have won the past three meetings with the Cowboys SU and ATS as well, with all of them decided by six points or more.

Even though both teams are essentially in a must-win situation, Dallas is playing its second in a row on the road, and that will be the difference.

Take Atlanta to win and cover.


NFL betting trends

The Cowboys are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games on the road versus the Falcons.

The total has gone under in five of the Cowboys' last six games on the road against the Falcons.

The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games at home after consecutive road games.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.