NFL Week 11 Picks: Predictions for Each Game's Odds and Over/Under Lines

Paul KasabianSenior ContributorNovember 14, 2018

GREEN BAY, WI - NOVEMBER 11:  Marquez Valdes-Scantling #83 of the Green Bay Packers runs against Bobby McCain #28 of the Miami Dolphins during the first half of a game at Lambeau Field on November 11, 2018 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.  (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Dylan Buell/Getty Images

While no NFL team is mathematically out of playoff contention, Week 11 represents a crucial time for a few teams who need some wins to have a decent playoff chance as the league enters the home stretch.

For example, the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons are two 4-5 teams on the outside looking in to the wild-card picture.

They face each other in Georgia on Sunday. While neither team will be out with a loss, coming back from a 4-6 record to a playoff berth will be a near-impossible task.

We'll see how those two teams fare alongside some others sitting on the playoff picture borderline, but until then, here's a look at some Week 11 spreads and over/under totals, per OddsShark, alongside picks for each game.

You can also review some best bets below.


Odds and Picks

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 49 O/U): GB 27, SEA 20 (Green Bay and Under)

Carolina Panthers (-4, 51) at Detroit Lions: CAR 34, DET 13 (Carolina and Under)

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 44.5): BAL 28, CIN 20 (Baltimore and Over)

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 48): DAL 24, ATL 19 (Dallas and Under)

Houston Texans (-3, 42.5) at Washington Redskins: HOU 13, WSH 12 (Washington and Under)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars: PIT 27, JAX 20 (Pittsburgh and Under)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-1.5, 52): NYG 41, TB 34 (New York and Over)

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 48.5): IND 28, TEN 16 (Indianapolis and Under)

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 46.5): LAC 31, DEN 10 (Los Angeles and Under)

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 40.5): ARI 24, OAK 6 (Arizona and Under)

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8.5, 54.5): NO 37, PHI 31 (Philadelphia and Over)

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3, 45): CHI 27, MIN 20 (Chicago and Over)

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 62): KC 48, LAR 45 (Kansas City and Over)


Best Bet: Favorite

The Detroit Lions have lost three straight games by an average of 13.7 points, but examining each of those defeats reveals an uglier story than the point differential implies.

First, the Lions lost 28-14 to Seattle at home. The Seahawks rushed for 176 yards (and held the Lions to just 34 yards on the ground) and even took a 28-7 fourth-quarter lead. Hawks quarterback Russell Wilson finished the day with a perfect quarterback rating.

Second, the Lions fell to the Minnesota Vikings, 24-9. Detroit allowed 10 sacks of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw for just 199 yards. Minnesota held a double-digit lead throughout the entire fourth quarter.

Third, the Bears took down the Lions, 34-22. Detroit faced deficits of 26-0 and 34-10 before making the score respectable, but the team nearly allowed another perfect quarterback rating as Bears signal caller Mitchell Trubisky completed 23 of 30 passes for 355 yards and three touchdowns.

The Lions are reeling and facing a six-win Carolina Panthers team fighting for a playoff spot. Expect a comfortable win for Carolina.


Best Bet: Underdog

The emergence of running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the Green Bay Packers offense could be the difference in a Thursday Night Football tilt with the Seahawks.

Jones has averaged 6.8 yards per carry, while Valdes-Scantling is posting 17.5 yards per reception. Jones now leads the Packer backfield after splitting time earlier this season, while Valdes-Scantling is his team's No. 2 wideout.

Also, the Seahawks offensive line may not be able to handle the Green Bay pass rush. Per Football Outsiders, the Seahawks have the fourth-highest adjusted sack rate allowed at 9.8 percent. Meanwhile, Green Bay's defense is tied for first in sacks (31) and adjusted sack rate (9.6 percent).

Seattle can mitigate that with a stout run game, but if the Packers jump out to a lead, the Hawks may be forced to go to the air more often. That could play into Green Bay's hands.


Best Bet: Over

The highly anticipated Monday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams was originally scheduled to be played in Mexico City, but the game was moved to L.A. after Estadio Azteca field conditions were not deemed good enough for play.

However, this game will be high-scoring even if it's played on the moon. The Chiefs and Rams are second and third in scoring, respectively, which has led to the highest over/under total in recorded NFL history, per David Perdum of ESPN.com.

The Chiefs' problem is that their defensive strength (a pass rush that has registered 31 sacks) may be mitigated by the Rams' stout blocking (which is seventh in adjusted sack rate allowed, per Football Outsiders).

The Rams' problem is that the Chiefs' stout offensive line is capable of at least slowing down L.A.'s defensive strength, which is all-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald (12.5 sacks).

Ultimately, this could end up resembling a Big XII football shootout, where the last team with the ball wins and both teams surpass 40 points.


Best Bet: Under

The Houston Texans (20.4 points allowed per game) and the Washington Redskins (19.4 points allowed per game) will be squaring off in a battle of 6-3 teams in Landover, Maryland.

The Texans have given up just 15.2 points per game in their past five contests.

The Skins have only given up more than 21 points twice all season, as they allowed 43 to the New Orleans Saints and 38 to the Atlanta Falcons. However, both of those offenses are high-flying, explosive aerial attacks at their best, and they are ranked in the top six in offensive defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders.

The Houston Texans offense is good, but it's not explosive and likely won't be dropping 40 points here. They may even struggle to get half of that. The same goes for the Skins, who have averaged just 18.7 points per game in their last five outings.