Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 13, 2018

LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 11: Quarterback Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks gestures during the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 11, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Harry How/Getty Images

Russell Wilson and his Seattle Seahawks won the first three matchups against Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers, including that come-from-behind stunner in the NFC championship game four seasons ago. But Green Bay has beaten Seattle each of the last three seasons to even the rivalry at 3-3. Two of the best quarterbacks in the game face off again on Thursday night at the Clink.

NFL point spread: The Seahawks opened as two-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.9-19.0 Seahawks (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers just snapped a two-game losing skid with a much-needed 31-12 victory over Miami last week. Green Bay drove its first two possessions of the game 70 and 71 yards to touchdowns, let the Dolphins get within 14-12 in the third quarter, then scored the final 17 points to secure the win and the money as a 12-point favorite.

On the afternoon, the Packers out-gained Miami 377-294 and ran the ball for 195 yards. Meanwhile, the Green Bay defense held the Dolphins out of the end zone all day.

Two weeks ago the Packers were tied at New England 17-17 and driving in the fourth quarter when a lost fumble led to a 31-17 defeat. And three weeks ago, a fumble cost Green Bay a chance to beat the then-unbeaten Rams in Los Angeles.

Nonetheless, at 4-4-1 overall the Packers now trail Minnesota by just a game in the battle for the second NFC wild-card spot.


Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

The Seahawks are trying to halt a two-game losing skid of their own after falling to the Rams in Los Angeles last week 36-31. Seattle drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown, led 14-7 after one quarter and 21-20 through three. The Seahawks then fell down by 12 points, scored to get within five and got the ball back. But a fourth-down pass from the Los Angeles 35-yard line fell incomplete. Still, Seattle covered as a 10-point dog.

On the day the Seahawks racked up 29 first downs and ran the ball for 273 yards. But a Wilson fumble in the fourth quarter, the only turnover of the game, cost Seattle seven points, which made all the difference.

The Seahawks have now out-rushed five of their last six opponents, going 4-2 ATS in the process. At 4-5 overall, Seattle trails the Vikings by a-game-and-a-half for that second wild-card slot.


Smart betting pick

Green Bay won this matchup last year 17-9, and this one will probably be decided by one score as well. Ultimately, the Seahawks are doing the more consistent job of running the ball and of stopping the run, and Wilson is a magician. The smart money sides with Seattle.


NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in six of the Seahawks' last eight games.

The Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games on Thursday.

The Seahawks are 24-5-1 SU in their last 30 games at night.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.