NFL Predictions Week 11: Top Odds, Picks, Projections for Every Game on Schedule

Paul KasabianSenior ContributorNovember 13, 2018

DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 4:  Defensive end J.J. Watt #99 of the Houston Texans stands on the field during a game against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on November 4, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The potential NFL regular-season game of the year will take place in Week 11 as the 9-1 Kansas City Chiefs and 9-1 Los Angeles Rams face off on Monday Night Football in Mexico City.

That game caps off an excellent slate, which also features a contest for NFC North supremacy, a game between two 6-3 squads and the hottest team in the league hosting the defending Super Bowl champions.

We'll take a look at all of them below as we provide picks for each game. All odds are via OddsShark as of 2:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.


Odds and Picks

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 49 O/U): GB 27, SEA 20

Carolina Panthers (-4, 51) at Detroit Lions: CAR 34, DET 13

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 44.5): BAL 28, CIN 20

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 48): DAL 24, ATL 19

Houston Texans (-3, 42.5) at Washington Redskins: HOU 13, WSH 12

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars: PIT 27, JAX 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (even, 52): NYG 41, TB 34

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 48): IND 28, TEN 16

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 46.5): LAC 31, DEN 10

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 40.5): ARI 24, OAK 6

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8.5, 54.5): NO 37, PHI 31

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 45.5): CHI 27, MIN 20

Kansas City Chiefs vs. L.A. Rams in Mexico City (-2.5, 63.5): KC 48, LAR 45



Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

The Aaron Jones bandwagon is now full after the ex-UTEP star gained 172 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in a 31-12 win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

The Packers running back has gained hold of the team's backfield after splitting time with Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams earlier this season, and the Green Bay offense is better for it.

Jones is now averaging a ridiculous 6.8 yards per carry, and the pick here is for him to continue rolling over defenses en route to a close win over the Seattle Seahawks.


Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

The Carolina Panthers may have just allowed 52 points in an ugly 31-point loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Detroit Lions have been outscored by 40 points in their past three games (all losses).

Without wideout Golden Tate (now a Philadelphia Eagle after a trade) and potentially wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr. (who is day to day with a bone bruise, per Adam Schefter of ESPN), the Lions offense should have significant issues keeping pace with the Cam Newton-led Panthers attack.


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Two teams that got off to hot starts but have since wilted face off in Baltimore on Sunday.

The Cincinnati Bengals are without wideout A.J. Green, who is battling a foot injury. The Ravens may not have quarterback Joe Flacco, who is dealing with a hip injury.

It's hard to gauge how Baltimore will do with its quarterback situation in flux, but Cincinnati looked one of the worst teams in football last Sunday when it lost 51-14 at home to the New Orleans Saints. The Ravens defense should handle the Bengals offense sans Green.


Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

The Dallas Cowboys defense looks like a bad matchup for the Atlanta Falcons offense. Top cornerback Byron Jones should at least be able to slow down superstar Falcons wideout Julio Jones a little or at least prevent him from wrecking the game single-handedly.

The run game might have trouble with Cowboys linebacker and tackling machine Leighton Vander Esch on the field. And edge-rusher Demarcus Lawrence could be in the Falcons backfield all afternoon.

While the Falcons offense likely won't go dormant, the Dallas defense and running back Ezekiel Elliott should be the key to a road win.


Houston Texans at Washington Redskins

The 6-3 Washington Redskins have a season-long point differential of just plus-one. Regression is likely on the way, and that could come in the form of the Houston Texans, who have won six straight games and present some matchup problems for the 'Skins.

First, edge-rusher J.J. Watt (nine sacks) has a big edge on Washington's offensive line, which has suffered a series of injuries.

Second, wideout DeAndre Hopkins is near-invincible, with 63 catches for 894 yards and seven touchdowns this season.

Look for those two to perform well in a road win.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

These two teams met in Pittsburgh twice last year, with the Jacksonville Jaguars emerging victorious twice. Circumstances are much different this season, as the 6-2-1 Steelers are on fire while the 3-6 Jags have lost five straight.

Jacksonville has welcomed back running back Leonard Fournette, but at this point, the team's season has gone so far off the rails that it's hard to back them even with the ex-LSU star in the mix. Pittsburgh should exact some measure of revenge for last season here.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

The New York Giants offense showed some signs of life in a 27-23 win over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday. While that doesn't exactly foreshadow future offensive success, the fact that the struggling offensive line only allowed one sack was encouraging.

Provided it holds up versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (which might be a tall order against current Buc and ex-Giant defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul), Big Blue should hold serve at home with a dominant offensive day. The guess here is that happens.


Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

This is a massive AFC South battle featuring two teams simultaneously fighting for the AFC South title and some traction in the race for the final wild-card spot, which is currently paced by the 5-4 Bengals.

While the Titans are coming off one of the more impressive wins by any franchise this year (a 34-10 victory over the New England Patriots), they may be running into a buzzsaw in Indianapolis.

The Colts are riding the high of a three-game win streak and have moved to 4-5 after weathering a ton of early-season injuries. Many of those players are now back, and given that Indianapolis is also at home, expect a close win for the Colts.


Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has only taken 12 sacks in nine games. While his protection should be put to the test against the talented pass-rushing duo of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb (17 sacks), the Bolts offense is simply too strong for the entire league.

The Chargers could run Melvin Gordon all day, throw it deep to Tyrell Williams, throw it high to Mike Williams or find the reliable Keenan Allen time after time. However the Bolts decide to attack Denver, L.A. should hold on for a win as long as Miller and Chubb don't go wild.


Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals

This isn't exactly the sexiest game on the schedule, as the Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals have a combined 3-15 record. Unless you're a Raiders fan, Cardinals fan, a bettor, an ardent fantasy football player or an NFL draft junkie, you're probably not checking this out.

On paper, this could be a big mismatch anyway, as the Cardinals look much improved following the promotion of Byron Leftwich to offensive coordinator two games ago. The team beat the San Francisco 49ers, 18-15 before hanging with the Chiefs for four quarters in a 26-14 loss.

A home game versus the 1-8 Raiders, who have lost five straight games by 14 or more points, shouldn't pose a big problem.


Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

The Saints, who have defeated five of their last six opponents by 10 or more points, are scorching right now and facing a reeling 4-5 Philadelphia Eagles team that just lost to its bitter rival (the Dallas Cowboys) at home. While the Eagles offense could give New Orleans some problems, the Saints are now No. 1 in scoring and should approach 40 points.


Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

The Minnesota Vikings have a big problem on Sunday, and that's the fact that Chicago Bears edge-rusher Khalil Mack is back and looking like the player who amassed five sacks in his first four games this season.

Mack suffered an ankle injury in Week 6 and was slowed down for two games before sitting the next two with the same ailment. He returned Sunday versus the Lions and immediately dominated with two sacks and six tackles.

The Vikings offensive line will have trouble containing him, so a Bears win is the call.


Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (in Mexico City)

Do you like teams scoring touchdowns every four minutes? Then the Chiefs versus Rams game is for you as this could be the shootout of the year.

It's hard to even predict a relatively high-scoring game like 31-27 with two of the best offenses going at each other. The Chiefs are second in the league with 35.3 points per game, while the Rams are third at 33.5.

Expect Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Rams signal-caller Jared Goff to toss touchdowns all night, although Kansas City may have the slight edge after L.A. wideout Cooper Kupp suffered a torn ACL that has prematurely ended the talented second-year pro's season.