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Week 10 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate
November 11, 2018
Week 10 of the 2018 NFL season didn't start off with the bang we had hoped for. The Pittsburgh Steelers rolled over the Carolina Panthers in a 52-21 laugher that was tense for about half a quarter.
The rest of Week 10 should bring a bit more drama, though there are expected to be a few more one-sided contests. Heading into Sunday, seven games have a spread of at least a touchdown. If the lines provide an accurate indication, there aren't going to be many upsets.
This, is exactly why you may be looking to make things a little more interesting. We're here to help with a look at the latest lines and odds, according to OddsShark. We'll run down the remaining Week 10 slate and make score predictions for each game. We'll also take a closer look at our best plays of the week.
NFL Week 10 Lines, Over/Unders and Predictions
Detroit Lions (+7, 44 O/U) at Chicago Bears: Bears 27, Lions 17
Arizona Cardinals (+16.5, 49.5 O/U) at Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs 31, Cardinals 18
New England Patriots (-6.5, 47 O/U) at Tennessee Titans: Patriots 28, Titans 18
New Orleans Saints (-5,5, 54 O/U) at Cincinnati Bengals: Saints 36, Bengals 22
Atlanta Falcons (-6, 50.5 O/U) at Cleveland Browns: Falcons 30, Browns 23
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 46.5 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts: Colts 24, Jaguars 22
Washington Redskins (+3, 50.5 O/U) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Redskins 28, Buccaneers 26
Buffalo Bills (+7, 36.5 O/U) at New York Jets: Jets 18, Bills 13
Los Angeles Chargers (-10, 50 O/U) at Oakland Raiders: Chargers 28, Raiders 17
Miami Dolphins (+10, 47.5 O/U) at Green Bay Packers: Packers 27, Dolphins 18
Seattle Seahawks (+9.5, 50.5 O/U) at Los Angeles Rams: Rams 31, Seahawks 23
Dallas Cowboys (+7, 43.5 O/U) at Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles 27, Cowboys 21
New York Giants (+3, 44.5 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers: 49ers 23, Giants 20
Chicago Bears -7 Over Detroit Lions
Seven points can make for a big spread, especially in a divisional game. However, the Chicago Bears match up so well with the Detroit Lions that it's a smart play here.
The key to this game is a Bears run defense that allows a mere 85 rushing yards per game, third-fewest in the NFL. Chicago has the kind of physical front seven that can limit Kerryon Johnson and the Lions rushing attack, making Detroit's offense one-dimensional.
We've seen over the past couple weeks that this creates big problems for the Lions. Detroit rushed for just 34 yards against the Seattle Seahawks and 66 yards against the Minnesota Vikings, losing both games by two touchdowns.
The Lions offense is easier to stop when it is forced to lean on quarterback Matthew Stafford and the passing game, especially without Golden Tate to stretch the field. The Bears can keep Detroit's passing offense out of rhythm by running the ball and sustaining long drives. And when Stafford and the Lions do get some time with the ball, they will get to deal with the returning Khalil Mack.
"When I get out there, I'm going to try to be myself," Mack said, per Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times.
This won't be a blowout the way Thursday night's game was, but Chicago can win by double digits simply by setting the tone, controlling the tempo and making fewer mistakes than the Lions.
Saints and Bengals Over 54 Total Points
The New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals have two of the most potent offenses in the NFL. New Orleans ranks second in the NFL with an average of 34.9 points per game, while Cincinnati ranks 10th with an average of 27.6 points per game.
The Bengals will be without star receiver A.J. Green, which might make the under look tempting.
"I still feel pretty comfortable even though A.J. is down, but it still hurts as a team," fellow Bengals wideout Tyler Boyd said, per Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com. "We just need guys to step up and fill his shoes and keep a smile on his face to show we have guys that can help him and get the job done."
Cincinnati's offense will undoubtedly take a step back without Green as a go-to target. However, the Bengals can still rely on Boyd, running back Joe Mixon and perhaps Giovani Bernard, who returned to practice recently but who remains limited.
The Bengals could also use speedster John Ross to stretch the field, though his consistency has been questionable at best.
What isn't questionable is New Orleans' ability to score points in bunches. The Saints have scored at least 30 points in three of their past four games and just dropped 45 on the Los Angeles Rams and their 12th-ranked defense (348.7 yards per game allowed). The Bengals allow a league-high 447.8 yards per game and concede an average of 29.6 points per game, fourth-most in the NFL.
The Saints will score their share of points, and the Bengals will put up enough to hit the over, even without Green.
Saints and Bengals Over 27 1st-Half Points
If you want to ensure the Bengals and Saints tilt stays interesting from start to finish, try doubling up with the first-half over. You can find close-to-even odds (20-21) on the first-half total of 27 points, according to Oddschecker.
The weather won't be a problem, as Cincinnati should see temperatures in the 40s and little wind at kickoff, per AccuWeather. There should be plenty of offense early, and the only risk here is that Cincinnati will almost certainly try to keep the ball away from New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees with long, run-based drives.
Still, given the tendency of Cincinnati's defense to give up big plays and the proven production of Saints weapons like Alvin Kamara Michael Thomas, Mark Ingram and, of course, Brees, the Saints may reach 27 points by themselves.