The Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) are the biggest betting favorites at sportsbooks in Week 10 as they host the Arizona Cardinals (2-6) on Sunday in what looks to be a lopsided matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions.
The Chiefs have won the past four meetings with the Cardinals on the road by an average of a little more than 25 points, with the last coming in 2010.
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 39.4-9.0 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Cardinals can cover the spread
Arizona is getting more than two touchdowns in this spot and has gone 4-1 against the spread the last five times as an underdog of 14 points or more. Going back even further, the Cardinals are also 11-3 ATS in that situation dating all the way back to 1987, even winning twice straight up during that stretch.
Yes, this team is young and inexperienced with a rookie quarterback in Josh Rosen and first-year head coach in Steve Wilks. But Kansas City may be underestimating Arizona, especially with such a big number.
Why the Chiefs can cover the spread
The Chiefs just keep on rolling, covering the spread for the eighth time in nine games last week in a 37-21 rout of the Cleveland Browns as eight-point road favorites. This is the first time they have been favored by double digits this season, but they have earned it based on their outstanding offense and ability to score points in bunches.
Second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes has topped 300 passing yards in a record-tying eight straight games for Kansas City and already has 29 touchdowns with just seven interceptions. Another average game for Mahomes would likely lead to another cover.
Smart betting pick
The number here is simply too high regardless of how good Kansas City has been this season. The Chiefs have only been favorites of 14 points or more twice going back to 1992 and went 1-1 ATS in those games. The Cardinals may be a bad football team visiting a great one, but they have a solid defense and will be able to stay within the point spread to cover.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone under in eight of the Chiefs' last nine games at home.
The Chiefs are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games at home in November.
The total has gone over in 15 of the Cardinals' last 20 games on the road.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.