New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 8, 2018

FOXBOROUGH, MA - NOVEMBER 04:  Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots high fives Brian Hoyer #2 and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels during the second half against the Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium on November 4, 2018 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

New England owns seven victories in a row over Tennessee, including one in the AFC playoffs last January, going 6-1 against the spread along the way. The Patriots are favored by a touchdown to run that streak to eight straight against the Titans on Sunday afternoon in Nashville.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.4-18.8 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England just extended its current win streak to six in a row, which includes a 5-1 run ATS, with a 31-17 win/cover over Green Bay last week. The Patriots drove the opening possession of the game 59 yards to a touchdown, allowed the Packers to tie the score at 17-17 into the fourth quarter but forced a big turnover, then used a couple of big plays to score twice in a three-minute span for the victory and the cash.

On the night, New England out-gained Green Bay 433-368. So, the Patriots have now out-gained three of their last four opponents and out-rushed five of their last six foes. So far this NFL betting season, teams that win the ground games are 99-33 SU and 94-37 ATS.

At 7-2 overall New England trails Kansas City by one game in the battle for the best record in the AFC.


Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee just reached .500 on the season with a much-needed 28-14 victory at Dallas on Monday night. The Titans spotted the Cowboys the first seven points of the game, scored the next 14, and took a 14-14 tie into halftime. Tennessee then won the second half 14-0, winning outright as a five-point underdog.

On the night, the Titans held a 24-18 edge in first downs, out-rushed Dallas 125-72, converted on 11-of-14 third-down situations and won time of possession by a 34/26 split.

Tennessee is now 5-1 ATS this season as a dog. At 4-4 overall the Titans trail first-place Houston by a-game-and-a-half in the AFC South, and they sit just one game back of Cincinnati in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.


Smart betting pick

The Patriots beat Tennessee in a playoff game last season 35-14 in Foxboro, covering as 13-point favorites. What's changed since then? Not too much, really. The smart money here gives the points with New England.


NFL betting trends

The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs the Titans.

The total has gone over in four of the Patriots' last five games vs the Titans.

The Patriots are 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games on the road.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.