MLB MVP 2018: Latest Odds and Predictions for Finalists

The Baseball Writers' Association of America announced the finalists for each major MLB award earlier this week, including the three players in the running for the AL and NL MVP awards.

In the American League, Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts, Cleveland Indians infielder Jose Ramirez and Los Angeles Angeles center fielder Mike Trout finished in the top three in the balloting.

On the National League side, it was Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, Chicago Cubs infielder Javier Baez and Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Christian Yelich as the leading vote-getters.

With the field now trimmed to three, it's time for some updated look at each MLB race, complete with odds and predictions.

AL MVP

Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

Odds

Mookie Betts, RF, Boston Red Sox: 1-4

Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels: 17-3

Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, Cleveland Indians: 19-1

Stat Comparison

• Betts: 186 OPS+, 84 XBH (32 HR), 80 RBI, 129 R, 30 SB, 10.9 WAR
• Ramirez: 150 OPS+, 81 XBH (39 HR), 105 RBI, 110 R, 34 SB, 7.9 WAR
• Trout: 199 OPS+, 67 XBH (39 HR), 79 RBI, 101 R, 24 SB, 10.2 WAR

Outlook

Betts was runner-up to Trout in the 2016 voting, and those two will dominate the balloting once again this year.

However, it's Betts who is the clear front-runner this time around.

The 26-year-old led the AL in batting average (.346), slugging percentage (.640) and runs scored (129) as one of the driving forces behind a juggernaut offense in Boston.

With 30 steals and 32 home runs, he was one of just two 30/30 players around baseball this year.

Betts was also his usual brilliant self defensively in right field, tallying 20 DRS with a 21.1 UZR/150 to win his third straight Gold Glove Award.

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While Trout had another excellent season—leading the AL in walks (122), on-base percentage (.460), OPS (1.088) and OPS+ (199)—he did it while playing for sub-.500 Angels team that finished a distant fourth in the AL West.

Fair or not, playing for a winning team still factors heavily into the voting.

After finishing third in the voting a year ago, Ramirez actually improved in a number of statistical categories, including OPS+ (145 to 150), home runs (29 to 39), RBI (83 to 105) and steals (17 to 34), to join Betts as a 30/30 player.

However, a case can be made that he wasn't even the best player on his own team, as Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor (131 OPS+, 38 HR, 92 RBI, 25 SB, 7.9 WAR) is headed for a top-10 finish in the voting as well.

In the end, the biggest surprise on the AL side was that Ramirez finished ahead of Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez, who hit .330/.402/.629 with 37 doubles, 43 home runs and an AL-leading 130 RBI. 

Prediction: Betts wins AL MVP

NL MVP

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Odds

Christian Yelich, LF, Milwaukee Brewers: 1-9

Javier Baez, 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs: 23-2

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies: 49-1

Stat Comparison

• Arenado: 133 OPS+, 78 XBH (38 HR), 110 RBI, 104 R, 2 SB, 5.6 WAR
• Baez: 126 OPS+, 83 XBH (34 HR), 111 RBI, 101 R, 21 SB, 6.3 WAR
• Yelich: 164 OPS+, 77 XBH (36 HR), 110 RBI, 118 R, 22 SB, 7.6 WAR

Outlook

Yelich has garnered MVP votes just once in his career, finishing 19th in the balloting back in 2016.

That speaks to the significant strides he made this season in his first year with the Brewers, as he helped lead Milwaukee to a surprise NL Central title.

The 26-year-old won the NL batting title and finished two home runs and one RBI away from winning the Triple Crown.

An otherworldly month of September where he hit .370/.508/.804 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI in 27 games helped the Brewers chase down the Cubs in the standings and solidified his standing as the MVP front-runner.

At this point, the question is not whether he'll win the award. It's whether he'll win it unanimously.

There have been just two unanimous NL winners in the past 15 years—Albert Pujols in 2009 and Bryce Harper in 2015.

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Baez should scoop up the majority of the second-place votes after turning in a breakout season with the Cubs.

The free-swinging infielder showed a slightly more refined approach at the plate, trimming his strikeout rate (28.3 to 25.9 percent) and improving his hard-contact rate (32.4 to 35.8 percent) in the process.

His quick-twitch athleticism was still on full display on a daily basis, though, as he was a game-changer on the basepaths and defensively at second base and shortstop, along with his gaudy offensive numbers.

Arenado edged out the likes of Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter to finish third in the voting.

As usual, he filled up the stat sheet while playing excellent defense at third base for a contending Rockies team.

However, his dramatic home (1.105 OPS, 23 HR, 62 RBI) and road (.772 OPS, 15 HR, 48 RBI) splits water down his overall stat line.

Prediction: Yelich wins NL MVP unanimously

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.