Week 10 NFL Picks: Latest Betting Odds, Vegas Spreads and ProjectionsNovember 6, 2018
Welcome to the land of massive NFL lines.
Otherwise known as Week 10, it's fitting the NFL has moved into double-digit territory on the weekly schedule—a stunning four games feature double-digit spreads.
And one has a spread of 17 points.
Call it a combination of the house and oddsmakers confident in their process this late in the season and a slew of bad-looking matchups between obvious contenders and teams starting to think more about draft position than playoffs.
As always, plenty of wiggle room exists for would-be bettors to make some gains.
Week 10 NFL Odds
Carolina at Pittsburgh (-4) | O/U 50.5
Arizona at Kansas City (-17) | O/U 50
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-7.5) | O/U 37
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-3) | O/U 46.5
New England (-6.5) at Tennessee | O/U n/a
New Orleans (-5) at Cincinnati | O/U 54
Washington at Tampa Bay (-2.5) | O/U 51.5
Atlanta (-4.5) at Cleveland | O/U 51
Detroit at Chicago (-7) | O/U 45
L.A. Chargers (-10) at Oakland | O/U 50.5
Miami at Green Bay (-10) | O/U 47.5
Seattle at L.A. Rams (-10) | O/U 51.5
Dallas at Philadelphia (-4.5) | O/U n/a
N.Y. Giants at San Francisco (-3) | O/U 43.5
Arizona at Kansas City (-17)
The Kansas City Chiefs have been the safest bet in sports for an entire season now, according to Charles Goldman of Chiefs Wire, covering the spread eight times in nine tries this year.
A ninth cover isn't too hard to see coming despite one of the largest lines in modern history. The Chiefs went to Cleveland and won by 16 in Week 9, the week prior winning by seven and before that by 35. Divisional games and tough opponents like New England and the Los Angeles Chargers are the only things stopping massive blowouts right now.
Then there is the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals only have two wins this season, both over the two-win San Francisco 49ers. One of the league's deepest rebuilds coughs up 24.9 points per game and ranks 31st against the rush at 143.1 yards allowed. First-round quarterback Josh Rosen is showing serious franchise-quarterback traits, but he's got nothing around him and is far from a talent who will elevate other pros right now.
At home, the most innovative offense in the league shouldn't have problems dropping a 40-burger on the Cardinals. Patrick Mahomes has 29 touchdowns with just seven interceptions, and Kareem Hunt has 683 yards and seven scores on a 4.5 average. The pre-snap misdirections and movement should have the Cardinals lost, leading to repeated big plays before the running game chunks its way up and down the field throughout the second half, running up the score.
Prediction: Chiefs 45, Cardinals 10
New Orleans (-5) at Cincinnati
Remember when the New Orleans Saints on the road made for one of the easiest calls of a week?
Not anymore. The 2018 Saints are 7-1 with four road victories already, one over a tricky Atlanta team and two more against solid Baltimore and Minnesota squads. Add this to a Week 9, 45-35 dismissal of the previously undefeated Los Angeles Rams and it isn't hard to get behind the idea the Saints will grab a fifth road win in Week 10.
Oddsmakers agree. Drew Brees has shredded anyone and everyone, completing 76.3 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and just one interception. Alvin Kamara is already up to more than 900 total yards and 12 touchdowns and the defense quietly ranks tops in the league against the run, permitting just 76.4 rushing yards per game.
Call it the perfect storm of betting circumstances, as the Bengals should be without star receiver A.J. Green:
A Cincinnati offense with A.J. Green hasn't been able to compensate for a porous defense in recent weeks—and that's being nice about it. The Bengals have allowed 480 or more total yards in three consecutive games, two of them losses. The only win came against three-win Tampa Bay, where they allowed 576 total yards and needed a game-winning field goal to take a 37-34 decision despite being gifted four interceptions from Jameis Winston before he got benched.
So no, Brees and the Saints shouldn't have any problems running up the score in this one. The Bengals don't have reliable targets on the offense after Green, especially without him taking away some attention. A diverse attack will have the poor-tackling defense giving up in the cold early.
Prediction: Saints 35, Bengals 21
Washington at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
This would be a trendy upset pick if the Washington Redskins weren't in shambles.
A five-win team looking like an NFC East winner and capable of making some noise in the playoffs, the Redskins went out in Week 10 and took a 38-14 whipping from a .500 Atlanta club, losing several offensive linemen in the process.
One of those was elite guard Brandon Scherff, and he wasn't the only one lost for the season:
Keep in mind the Redskins are also down elite left tackle Trent Williams for at least a few more weeks, meaning a run-first attack with 33-year-old Adrian Peterson has to break in at least three new offensive linemen against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Those Buccaneers aren't anything to write home about, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown six touchdowns and two interceptions over a-game-and-a-half of action since taking over for Winston two weeks ago in Cincinnati. He's keeping the offense moving better than anyone else and now has a blueprint written by Atlanta to study with the Redskins in town.
Last week says it all about the Redskins. While the Peterson resurgence has been fun, it was a matter of time before Alex Smith had to wake up and beat a team with his arm. Instead, he went 30-of-46 with 306 yards, one touchdown and one interception against a defense ranked 29th, allowing 304.3 passing yards per game, not to mention 28.3 points.
It's easy to forget the Buccaneers have wins over New Orleans and Philadelphia this year with Fitzpatrick under center. While far from perfect, his leading the offense against a Redskins team that won't be able to put up points should make for a smooth home victory.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Redskins 17
Odds via OddsShark.