Week 9 NFL Picks: Over/Under Advice, Final-Score Predictions and Odds

When it comes to NFL Week 9 picks, the easy ride is over. 

Week 8 was simple and it carried over into Thursday Night Football, where the San Francisco 49ers kicked the tar out of Jon Gruden's rebuilding Oakland Raiders, 34-3. It made a mockery of the three-point spread favoring the 49ers, as did Nick Mullens (who?) while he threw for three touchdowns in the win. 

But it only gets more difficult from here. As of this writing, two lines are even, divisional battles look like 50-50 plays and so too does a showdown between the two best quarterbacks in the league.

Sprinkle in some bigger lines and it's a good thing would-be bettors had Week 8 to establish solid footing in the bankroll department—Week 9 is going to do some damage. 

Week 9 NFL Odds

Chicago (-10) at Buffalo | O/U 37.5

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-3) | O/U 47

Atlanta at Washington (-1.5) | O/U 47.5

Detroit at Minnesota (-6) | O / U 50.5 

Kansas City (-9) at Cleveland | O/U 51.5

NY Jets  at Miami (-3) | O / U  45

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-6.5) | O / U 54   

Houston  at Denver (-E) | O / U 46 

L.A. Chargers at Seattle (E) | O/U 48

L.A. Rams (-1.5) at New Orleans| O/U 60

Green Bay at New England (-6) | O/U 56.5

Tennessee at Dallas (-5) | O/U 41

Chicago (-10) at Buffalo 

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

While the week as a whole is brutal for those making picks, it won't get much easier all season than this. 

The Buffalo Bills have to start Nathan Peterman under center against the Chicago Bears, meaning even a 10-point spread seems generous. 

Without being too mean, the 2017 fifth-round pick has completed 45.7 percent of his passes over seven career games, throwing three touchdowns against nine interceptions on 81 attempts, meaning a turnover every nine attempts. 

The Bills have tried to up the talent level around the quarterback position over the past week at least, signing free-agent wideout Terrelle Pryor—leading to some interesting comparisons: 

Fine, maybe that was mean. But nothing good can come of throwing Peterson out there against a Khalil Mack-led defense boasting 20 sacks, 12 forced fumbles and 11 interceptions while only allowing 20.6 points per game. 

Chicago has come within one point of beating Aaron Rodgers and seven of beating Tom Brady, so Peterman should be light work considering his best offensive weapon is now Pryor, who has 14 catches all year. Zay Jones has caught 25 of 42 targets. Kelvin Benjamin, 16 of 44. 

Mitchell Trubisky's Bears have scored 24 or more points in four games and counting, and a road game in Buffalo is sure to extend the streak. 

Prediction: Bears 28, Bills 10

Green Bay at New England (-6)

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

It doesn't get much better than this. 

The hype machine won't end with Rodgers and Brady headed for a staredown in Foxborough. It's ratings gold, even if the cross-conference matchup doesn't do much for the playoff outlook. 

But the hype is understandable. Rodgers' Packers are 3-3-1, and he has completed 61.3 percent of his passes with 2,283 yards and 13 touchdowns against one interception. Brady's Patriots are 6-2, and he sits at 67.5, 2,200, 16 and seven in those same areas. 

Those guys have also dropped quotes like this during the build to the game itself:

But those trying to pick the game can't afford to get lost in the hype. 

The Packers went on the road in Week 8 and only lost to the still-undefeated Los Angeles Rams by two points, 29-27. But overall, these Packers have yet to win a road game this season, and if we're being honest, the wins have come against the Bears, the terrible Bills and the lost 49ers. 

Brady's side hasn't had nearly as many problems, beating teams like the Bears on the road and at home even taking down the Kansas City Chiefs. Brady simply has better surrounding pieces right now, whether it is Rob Gronkowski at tight end or a defense only allowing 23.1 points per game. 

On the road, an offensive line that has already let up 22 sacks of Rodgers could stifle his ability to push the ball down the field against the man concepts of the Patriots, giving Brady enough wiggle room to get out ahead and stay there under the national spotlight.

The current spread feels about right given how the two quarterbacks should exchange blows for most of the night. 

Prediction: Patriots 28, Packers 21

Tennessee at Dallas (-5)

Matt Dunham/Associated Press

The hardest pick of the week might be the last game of the week. 

The Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys are both 3-4 coming out of a bye week and flying well under the expectations forecasted for them before the season. 

Those Titans aren't getting what most expected out of Marcus Mariota, who only has three touchdowns and five interceptions while dealing with a slew of injuries. And those Cowboys aren't getting much better from Dak Prescott and his eight touchdowns and four picks, canning an offensive line coach during the break. 

The Cowboys have such a lack of production on the offensive side of the ball they went out and mortgaged the future on 2015 first-round wideout Amari Cooper, but he's a guy with 22 catches for 280 yards and one score to his name. A transition into the Dallas offense and good timing with Prescott isn't going to happen overnight. 

Though it might not seem like it, Mariota is the key to this one—and he seemed to get healthier over the bye week: 

Mariota hasn't been right all season, and he's quickly turning into one of those "what if?" quarterbacks because the offensive staff around him keeps changing. While he has a solid core around him this year, coaches have had to restrict the game plan to accommodate for injuries. 

If Mariota is truly feeling better after an extra week of rest, he's the difference in a game like this against a struggling Cowboys team that won't hit full stride for a few weeks after shaking up how things work in the trenches and the pecking order of the offense. 

Look for the Titans to pull ahead in this one, with Mariota's versatility and a pair of strong running backs behind him able to control the pace once a lead is established. 

Prediction: Titans 24, Cowboys 20

Odds via OddsShark.