MLB Odds: Early Free-Agency Lines for Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, More

The oddsmakers foresee a big offseason for the Philadelphia Phillies.

According to OddsShark, the Phillies are the betting favorites to sign Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Philadelphia has even odds of landing Harper and is at plus-150 to add Machado:

The Phillies are also considered a long shot (+500) to sign Craig Kimbrel. The world champion Boston Red Sox have even odds of re-signing the All-Star closer:

OddsShark also provided the early landscape for the Clayton Kershaw sweepstakes assuming Kershaw opts out of his contract. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at minus-150 to retain the veteran left-hander:

Nobody expects Philadelphia to actually get both Harper and Machado since that would mean investing $500 million—conservatively—in two players.

But the Phillies are set to have the 19th-highest payroll ($68.9 million) in baseball in 2019, per Spotrac. Based on recent history, that would leave general manager Matt Klentak to make at least one big signing. In 2011 when the franchise made its last playoff appearance, it had the third-highest payroll ($169.9 million).

Ownership has shown a willingness to spend when the Phillies are contending. After making a 14-game improvement in 2018, Philadelphia looks on the cusp of a breakthrough. Getting one of Harper or Machado would unquestionably help achieve that.

Kimbrel and Kershaw will be two interesting free agents to follow. 

They're both among the most proven veterans at their respective positions, yet they're coming off relatively disappointing 2018 seasons. 

Kimbrel finished with a career-high 3.13 FIP in the regular season, per Baseball Reference. His 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings were also a big step backward from 2017 (16.4).

Most concerning, Kimbrel's fastball velocity (97.63 mph) was his lowest since 2011, according to Brooks Baseball. The aging curve isn't kind to relief pitchers, and the 30-year-old Kimbrel may be on the verge of a steep decline.

Kershaw is unlikely to fall off a cliff performance-wise in the coming years, but it's fair to wonder whether the three-time Cy Young Award winner can continue to set the gold standard for starting pitchers. His 3.19 FIP was his highest since his rookie year in 2008, per Baseball Reference, and he hasn't made 30-plus starts since 2015.

As great as it would be to see Kershaw end his career in Los Angeles, the Dodgers have to seriously consider how far they're willing to go to keep him. Letting Kershaw go may be the better course of action over agreeing to another record-setting contract.