New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Chicago Bears played as favorites just six times combined in 2016 and 2017, and they were miserable in that part, going just 1-5 both straight up and against the spread.

But Chicago has already been favored four times this season, going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The Bears will play as favorites for the fifth time this season Sunday afternoon against the New York Jets at Soldier Field.

NFL point spread: The Bears opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.6-13.2 Bears. NFL picks on every game.

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Why the Jets Can Cover the Spread

New York won two games in a row but ran into a suddenly hot Minnesota Vikings team in Week 7 and lost 37-17. The Jets fell down 7-0 two minutes into the game but only trailed 10-7 at the half. They then gave up the first 10 points out of the locker room and never recovered.

New York had a chance to cover the spread as a 3.5-point home dog, down 27-17 midway through the fourth quarter but with the ball near midfield. Unfortunately, a Sam Darnold interception, his second of three on the day, put an end to those hopes.

On the day, the Jets only came up with 263 yards of offense but only allowed 316. The big problem, though, were the four turnovers that basically created a minus-13 point differential.

In Week 6, New York beat Indianapolis 42-34, and the preceding week, the Jets amassed 512 yards, including 323 on the ground, against what's supposed to be a good Denver Broncos defense in a 34-16 victory.

Why the Bears Can Cover the Spread

Chicago won three games in a row into October but now shoots to stop a two-game losing slide after succumbing to the New England Patriots 38-31 in Week 7. The Bears led that game 17-7 in the second quarter but later fell down 38-24 in the fourth. Chicago pulled back to within one score with four minutes to go, got the ball back with a half-minute left, completed a Hail Mary but came up one yard short of the end zone.

On the day, the Bears outgained the Patriots 453-381, held a 29-21 edge in first downs and hit 4-of-4 on red-zone touchdown conversions. But they also gave up a 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and had a punt blocked and returned for a score. Those two plays basically cost them the game.

Chicago has outrushed every opponent this season. Teams that have won the ground battles in the NFL this year are 76-29 SU and 72-32 ATS.

Smart Betting Pick

The Bears are a step ahead of New York and should win this game. However, linebacker Khalil Mack is considered questionable with a bad ankle, and with Chicago more highly thought of, the spread on this game seems inflated. Smart money takes the points with the Jets.

NFL Betting Trends

The total has gone under in seven of the Jets' past nine games against the Bears.

The Bears are 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games as a favorite.

The Jets are 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 games in October.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.