Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) will try to beat the Denver Broncos (3-4) for the seventh straight time both straight up and against the spread on Sunday when they host them as large home favorites at sportsbooks. The two division rivals are each coming off identical 45-10 wins last week in prime time against non-divisional foes.

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 55.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 37.6-16.6 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Broncos can cover the spread

No matter what you think of the Broncos, they still have an elite-level defense that can get after the quarterback, which is something they did at times in a 27-23 home loss to the Chiefs in the Week 4 Monday night matchup. They sacked Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes once and held him in check for the most part until the fourth quarter when he led his team to two touchdown drives in the last 6:27.

Denver also nearly covered the spread as a 3.5-point home underdog and will have more points and more tape to work with here in an effort to improve upon the previous meeting.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs are arguably the best team in the AFC right now regardless of their loss to the New England Patriots two weeks ago. Their offense ranks first in the NFL in points per game (37.1) and third in yards (437.3) while their defense still has some work to do in order to get out of the cellar as the league's worst statistically.

Kansas City did a solid job defensively though in a rout of the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night, sacking quarterback Andy Dalton twice and forcing him into an interception. In the last game at Denver, the Chiefs limited quarterback Case Keenum to 245 yards and sacked him four times for 19 yards, which definitely played a key role in the outcome.

Smart betting pick

Kansas City cannot keep blowing out every opponent, right? The Chiefs have beaten teams by double digits four times en route to a perfect 7-0 mark ATS. This may look like another easy victory for them, but Denver will be facing Mahomes for the third time (including last year's season finale) and lost the last two games by a combined seven points. The Broncos will cover.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in four of the Broncos' last five games vs the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games at home after covering in their two most recent home games.

The total has gone over in the Broncos' last seven games on the road vs teams with winning records.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.