NFL Predictions Week 7: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

The underdog angle is getting harder and harder to play heading into the NFL's Week 7 slate. 

Coming out of Week 6, teams like Pittsburgh, Minnesota, the Los Angeles Rams, Baltimore, New England and Green Bay all got back to winning. While some of it was simple matchups, another theory might point to some of the best coaches in the league making long-needed adjustments to get the ships headed in the right direction. 

Either way, it's choppier waters here for would-be bettors going into a Week 7 featuring a handful of bigger lines and seemingly 50-50 tossups like Cincinnati-Kansas City. 

For those hoping to play the underdog, we've singled out three exploitable matchups below the full schedule. 

Week 7 NFL Odds

Denver (-2.5) at Arizona | O/U 41

Tennessee at L.A. Chargers (-6.5) | O/U 45.5

Buffalo at Indianapolis (-6.5) | O/U n/a

Carolina at Philadelphia (-4.5) | O/U 45.5

Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3) | O/U 49.5

Detroit at Miami (n/a)  | O/U n/a

Houston at Jacksonville (-4.5) | O/U 42

Minnesota (-3.5) at N.Y. Jets | O/U 47

New England (-3.5) at Chicago | O/U 49.5

New Orleans at Baltimore (-2.5) | O/U 49.5

Dallas at Washington (-1.5) | O/U 41

L.A. Rams (-11) at San Francisco | O/U n/a

Cincinnati at Kansas City (-6) | O/U 58.5

N.Y. Giants at Atlanta (-6) | O/U 54.5

Carolina at Philadelphia (-4.5)

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Sometimes it is the best coaches making the necessary adjustments, other times it comes down to star players just taking over. 

Such is the case with Cam Newton, who is off to a hot start once again by completing 65.9 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and four interceptions and another three rushing scores on the ground. He's finally got some quality help out of the backfield with Christian McCaffrey, who averages 4.9 yards per carry. 

That is, when Carolina coaches choose to use him. 

In a Week 6 loss to Washington on the road, McCaffery only received eight carries, one behind Newton. But the recipe for a playoff team is there, especially with a solid defense backing up Newton: 

Rolling with Newton on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles isn't the worst play in the world here. While those Eagles are riding high right now after blowing past the miserable New York Giants 34-13, the prior two games against quality defenses resulted in 26-23 and 23-21 losses to Tennessee and Minnesota, respectively. 

Both opponents there were able to keep a red-hot Carson Wentz (eight touchdowns, one interception) off the field and win the time-of-possession battle. A ball-control offense is something Newton can lead, especially if Philadelphia still struggles to run the football. 

Prediction: Panthers 23, Eagles 20

Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3)

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Well, don't shy away from the Cleveland Browns now. 

These Browns are 2-2 over their last four, beating interesting Baltimore and New York Jets teams and coming up short in overtime against Oakland. 

At this point, it's clear the Browns defense can play with any team in the league, in large part because first-round rookie Denzel Ward already looks like one of the best outright defenders the NFL has to offer.

Here's a small sampling: 

A game against Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sounds tough on the Browns, but the reality is those Buccaneers have lost four in a row and Jameis Winston has again been just above the mediocre line, throwing five touchdowns and four interceptions. 

It doesn't help that the Buccaneers can't run the ball or play defense. The ground game averages 3.6 yards per carry while second-round rookie Ronald Jones only has 11 carries. Despite big names like Gerald McCoy, the defense has just nine sacks and coughs up a league-leading 34.6 points per game. 

When a defense plays the way Cleveland's does, winning the field-position battle and outright scoring at times, it makes life easy on a rookie-led offense. Baker Mayfield shouldn't have any issues converting these situations into scoring against such a miserable defense, road game or not. 

In a battle of rebuilding franchises, it isn't hard to tell which one is in a better position, even if oddsmakers feel like throwing three points at the home team. 

Prediction: Browns 30, Buccaneers 21

New Orleans at Baltimore (-2.5)

Bill Feig/Associated Press

There doesn't seem to be any stopping the New Orleans Saints now. 

Drew Brees and the Saints have rattled off four wins in a row, including two on the road, and head to Baltimore after a Week 6 bye looking fresh. 

Brees himself is already up to 1,658 yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 77.9 percent of his passes, having thrown multiple touchdowns in every game except one. Contrast that with Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, who has less than two scoring throws in half of his team's games so far en route to a 4-2 record. 

As of now, it doesn't make sense to ever take Flacco over Brees regardless of most circumstances, as Brees is perhaps the most efficient player in the league:

Baltimore has a reputation as a defensive-minded team, but cupcake opponents like Buffalo, Denver, Cleveland and an erratic Tennessee offense have inflated the numbers. And the Ravens haven't even consistently beat teams they're supposed to beat, hence the 12-9 loss to Cleveland. 

The Ravens offense is once again an abomination, with Flacco hardly completing 60 percent of his passes, weird Lamar Jackson packages and a running game averaging 3.4 yards per carry. A bend-but-don't-break approach works with a strong defense against bad opponents, but eventually, Brees can and will find a way to break any unit. 

That should be the case here regardless of venue, especially with Brees having an extra week of prep for this one. More attempts for Flacco from a predictable stance once the Ravens fall behind will make things easier on the Saints defense, too. 

Prediction: Saints 28, Ravens 20

Odds via OddsShark.