Week 7 NFL Picks: Vegas Betting Odds, Over/Under Spreads and Line Projections

The Week 7 slate of NFL odds and spreads once again resembles something of a minefield. 

Would-be bettors got a harsh reminder of how tricky things can get when Week 6 closed with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers having a brutal time on Monday Night Football against the 1-5 San Francisco 49ers, who were without their starting quarterback. 

There, Rodgers had to pull some late-game "magic" to get a 33-30 win despite the Packers entering favored by 9.5 points. 

Oddsmakers are getting bolder in their movements again, hence five opening lines sitting at six points or more. It makes a tougher task on bettors, though those who have kept pace with the news cycle should be able to spot exploitable areas. 

Week 7 NFL Odds

Denver (-2.5) at Arizona | O/U 41

Tennessee at L.A. Chargers (-6.5) | O/U 45.5

Buffalo at Indianapolis (-6.5) | O/U n/a

Carolina at Philadelphia (-4.5) | O/U 45.5

Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3) | O/U 49.5

Detroit at Miami (n/a)  | O/U n/a

Houston at Jacksonville (-4.5) | O/U 42

Minnesota (-3.5) at N.Y. Jets | O/U 47

New England (-3.5) at Chicago | O/U 49.5

New Orleans at Baltimore (-2.5) | O/U 49.5

Dallas at Washington (-1.5) | O/U 41

L.A. Rams (-11) at San Francisco | O/U n/a

Cincinnati at Kansas City (-6) | O/U 58.5

N.Y. Giants at Atlanta (-6) | O/U 54.5

Denver (-2.5) at Arizona

Jim Mone/Associated Press

There is always a bit of guesswork involved in looking at the Thursday Night Football encounter because it is hard to tell which team will respond better to the short week of prep, both in the health and traditional performance departments. 

This one is even more of a doozy than usual because the Denver Broncos enter at 2-4 and the Arizona Cardinals 1-5. 

The visiting Broncos have lost four in a row, with the Case Keenum experiment fully a disaster at this point, as he's completing just 63.1 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns against eight interceptions despite a deep cast of weapons at wideout led by Demaryius Thomas. The once-vaunted Denver defense is struggling and has coughed up 27 or more points in three of its last four outings. 

Since making the change to first-round rookie Josh Rosen, Arizona has at least been competitive in every game. The Cardinals went from opening the season with 24-6 and 34-0 losses to defeats of 16-14 and 20-17 to Chicago and Seattle, respectively, before beating the 49ers 28-18. Rosen's numbers aren't jumping off the page by any means, but he is predictably taking more shots downfield than Sam Bradford. 

Part of this is due to the defense, where the Cardinals have a huge advantage on a short week: 

That alone should have bettors rubbing their hands together. Keenum is struggling enough without more injuries up front against a strong Arizona defense. At home, good field position thanks to Rosen should have the Cardinals defense feasting against a struggling offense. 

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Broncos 21

Tennessee at L.A. Chargers (-6.5)

David Richard/Associated Press

This is one of the easier lines of the week. 

Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers are on fire—no matter how little attention they get nationally and how strongly Rivers gets ignored in the MVP conversation. They have rattled off three wins in a row and sit at 4-2 while Rivers has completed 68.6 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns against three interceptions. 

It's the advanced metrics, though, that really help Rivers shine: 

The vibe is about one thousand percent different for the Tennessee Titans, a 3-3 squad with two losses in a row, including a 13-12 blunder to the Buffalo Bills. 

Despite the immense upside, Marcus Mariota has only thrown for two touchdowns and four interceptions on 118 attempts. The running game, despite the infusion of Dion Lewis, averages 3.7 yards per carry, and a defense thought to be potent at rushing the passer has just 13 sacks. 

Week 6 paints a brutal picture. During Tennessee's 21-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Mariota completed 10 passes and took 11 sacks. So yes, a Melvin Ingram-led pass rush complemented by the best blitzing safety in football, Derwin James, should have a fun time with the visiting Titans. 

And no, Rivers and his multiple touchdowns with no more than an interception in every game so far shouldn't have any problems capitalizing on the good field position repeatedly. 

Prediction: Chargers 28, Titans 17   

Cincinnati at Kansas City (-6)

Steven Senne/Associated Press

The first major flex of the season shoves the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs into a prime-time slot on Sunday Night Football. 

The Bengals get the nod because they are an upstart 4-2 and leading the AFC North in large part because the Andy Dalton-led offense looks like one of the league's better units. Ditto for the Chiefs, a 5-1 squad led by Patrick Mahomes. 

Granted, both teams lost in Week 6. The Bengals once again couldn't handle the Pittsburgh Steelers, coughing up a touchdown with only seconds remaining. Though Dalton is playing some of the best ball of his career, the defense has all three starting cornerbacks dealing with injuries and lost at least one starting linebacker against the Steelers. 

Kansas City's loss the same week wasn't as bad considering it was against New England in 43-40 fashion. Mahomes still threw for four touchdowns and two interceptions, moving him to 18 and four on the year, respectively. 

Perhaps the most underrated difference for K.C. this year is its QB's ability to fire the ball away quickly and make the job easier on his guys up front: 

That's bad news for a hobbled Bengals defense with a strength being in its ability to rush the passer. 

NFL fans are simply getting this one at a bad time. The Bengals are limping to one of the NFL's best home-field advantages after another battle with the Steelers and don't have the personnel to slow Mahomes enough to the point of pulling off an upset. 

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bengals 23

Odds via OddsShark.