Lorenzo Cain, Brewers Rough Up Clayton Kershaw, Take 1-0 NLCS Lead over Dodgers
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-5 in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Friday night at Miller Park in Milwaukee.
Three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw had a night to forget. He exited the game in the fourth inning after allowing four earned runs on six hits.
Lorenzo Cain set the tone for the Brewers offense at the top of the order, going 3-for-5 with one run scored.
Brewers' Bullpen Approach Works in Game 1 But Remains Risky over Seven-Game Series
Brewers manager Craig Counsell has taken the "bullpenning" approach to the extreme. Jhoulys Chacin was the only Milwaukee starter to pitch five innings in the National League Division Series against the Colorado Rockies. Counsell yanked Game 1 starter Gio Gonzalez after just two innings Friday night.
Counsell then brought on left-hander Josh Hader in the fifth inning, well before anybody would've expected the All-Star reliever to enter the game.
Game 1 represented an almost ideal situation for Counsell to deploy his strategy. A Manny Machado solo home run gave the Dodgers a 1-0 lead in the second inning, but the Brewers plated two runs in the third.
By taking an early lead, Milwaukee allowed Counsell more flexibility with the bullpen.
Still, the jury is out as to whether relying so heavily on the relievers is sustainable over a seven-game playoff series. In addition to tiring out pitchers who aren't used to such heavy workloads, the Brewers could jeopardize one of the benefits to using late-inning specialists.
And by being so aggressive with Hader—using him for three innings—Counsell basically ruled him out for Game 2. In a high-leverage situation Saturday, Counsell might rue the fact that he has to either rest Hader or put him on the mound when he'll almost certainly be fatigued.
Kershaw's Poor Start Emblematic of Star's Gradual Decline
Entering Friday, Kershaw had a 4.08 ERA in 25 playoff appearances, so his Game 1 performance strengthens the narrative—fair or not—that he's unable to rise to the occasion in October.
That viewpoint may not tell the full story this time around.
Although Kershaw's defense did him no favors, he wasn't sharp to open the NLCS.
When Brewers reliever Brandon Woodruff is going deep off Kershaw, something isn't working.
Kershaw turns 31 in March, which isn't that old. However, he already has 11 years of MLB service and has logged 2,229.1 innings between the regular season and playoffs. Then you throw in the persistent injury issues that have dogged him for three straight years, and his future isn't so straightforward.
Kershaw finished with a 3.19 FIP and averaged 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings this past season, both of which were his worst marks since his rookie year in 2008, per Baseball Reference.
The seven-time All-Star delivered a gem in the NLDS, shutting out the Atlanta Braves and limiting them to two hits in eight innings. On his best day, Kershaw remains one of the game's top pitchers.
But fans might be witnessing the beginning of the end of Kershaw's time as MLB's pre-eminent ace, and it might be time to reset what we expect of him in the playoffs.
Catcher Position Might Be Big Problem for Dodgers
Yasmani Grandal tied for third in WAR (3.6) among Dodgers position players in 2018, per FanGraphs, and his defense accounted for a good chunk of his overall value. According to Baseball Prospectus, Grandal was the best catcher in adjusted field runs above average.
That great defender was nowhere to be seen early in Game 1.
Grandal allowed two passed balls in the first three innings, and he helped set up Milwaukee's second run of the night.
With one out in the third, Jesus Aguilar lined out to David Freese at first base. The home plate umpire allowed Aguilar to take first, though, after ruling Grandal interfered with his swing. Instead of Kershaw having two outs and runners on second and third, the bases were loaded with just one out.
Hernan Perez stepped to the plate next and hit a sacrifice fly to center field to give Milwaukee the lead.
The issue for the Dodgers is they don't have a good alternative to playing Grandal. Austin Barnes, who does have some October experience, would be the option.
But Barnes was a .205 hitter and slugged .290 during the regular season, compared to .289 and .486, respectively, a year ago. The Dodgers can't afford to start a hitter with such a low ceiling, even with a lineup as balanced as theirs.
While Grandal won't single-handedly lose the Dodgers the NLCS, he does appear to be a liability.
What's Next?
The series stays in Milwaukee for Game 2. First pitch is scheduled for 4:09 p.m. ET on Saturday, with television coverage on Fox.
