NFL Picks Week 6: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

The NFC South sent three teams to the NFL playoffs last year as the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons all took part.

The Saints and Panthers look like playoff contenders yet again, but the Falcons have struggled en route to a 1-4 record.

We'll take a closer look at Atlanta's matchup with another division rival (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) below in addition to a quick preview of the Panthers' game with the Washington Redskins. The Saints are off this week.

There's also a look at the latest lines, per OddsShark, and some expert picks from NFL Pickwatch. All percentages below represent the percent of experts who believe the listed team will win. For example, 74 percent of experts listed on NFL Pickwatch think the Philadelphia Eagles will beat the New York Giants.

Week 6 Early Lines

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 44 O/U) at New York Giants: PHI (74 percent)

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10, 43 O/U): MIN (98 percent)

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10, 41 O/U): HOU (93 percent)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 57.5 O/U): ATL (85 percent)

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-1, 44.5 O/U): CAR (75 percent)

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5, 45 O/U): NYJ (64 percent)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2, 52.5 O/U): CIN (58 percent)

Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 45 O/U) at Cleveland Browns: LAC (65 percent)

Chicago Bears (-3.5, 41.5 O/U) at Miami Dolphins: CHI (80 percent)

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 48 O/U) at Oakland Raiders (in Wembley Stadium in London): SEA (77 percent)

Los Angeles Rams (-7, 52 O/U) at Denver Broncos: LAR (97 percent)

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 41.5 O/U) at Tennessee Titans: LAR (62 percent)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 40.5 O/U) at Dallas Cowboys: JAX (79 percent)

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5, 59.5 O/U): NE (62 percent)

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 46.5 O/U): GB (97 percent)

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins are favored by one point over the Carolina Panthers, but 75 percent of experts have the 'Skins losing.

The experts' rationale is easy to understand. Washington is coming off an ugly 43-19 loss to the New Orleans Saints in a game that seemed even worse than the score indicated. The team couldn't generate much offense and allowed New Orleans to move the ball down the field with relative ease.

Meanwhile, the 3-1 Carolina Panthers have an impressive collection of talent thanks to quarterback Cam Newton, running back Christian McCaffrey, linebacker Luke Kuechly and others.

Now they return linebacker Thomas Davis from a four-game suspension and perhaps tight end Greg Olsen as well. Olsen has been recovering from a foot injury for a month and practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday.

If he's good to go, he'll be a massive boost to the pass game. Over his last three full seasons (2014-2016), Olsen caught an average of 80 passes for 1,062 yards. He's in his age-33 season now, and that rate may be hard to replicate, but the 6'5", 255-pound tight end is a tough cover for nearly everyone in the league.

The Panthers present a tough opponent for Washington, but the 2-2 'Skins haven't been pushovers this year, notably beating the Green Bay Packers 31-17. Through three games, they had only given up 44 points.

The 'Skins also may get a boost this week as running back Adrian Peterson, who suffered a shoulder injury last Monday, may not miss any playing time. Head coach Jay Gruden called him day-to-day.

Washington is also home, which will obviously give the team an edge there.

This game is tough to call, but with Carolina getting those aforementioned reinforcements, take the Panthers in a close one.

Pick: Carolina 24, Washington 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

This game can be considered a loser-leaves-town match in the NFC South.

The 2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost two straight games and just suffered arguably the league's most embarrassing loss of the year in a 48-10 defeat to the Chicago Bears. Tampa's defense has struggled all season, allowing 138 points in four games.

The Bucs did have a bye for Week 5 to straighten some things out, so we'll see if that has an impact Sunday.

Meanwhile, the 1-4 Atlanta Falcons have suffered four injuries to defensive starters, two of which (safeties Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal) are out for the season. Like Tampa, the Falcons' defense has not fared well, allowing point totals of 43, 37 and 41 in their last three contests.

Both teams are staring up at the 4-1 Saints and 3-1 Panthers in the division. It looks like a long shot for either side to steal the crown at this point, but a defeat here makes the loser's chances close to zero.

The experts are heavily backing Atlanta, with 85 percent of them believing the Falcons will win. The Falcons are a field-goal favorite over the Bucs, so this might be close. 

That being said, it's hard to bet against the Falcons when we just saw Tampa Bay allow 48 points to a Bears offense that had posted 49 total points in their previous three games (the Bears scored 63 overall but had two defensive touchdowns).

Chicago's offense may be better than its first three games advertised, but it didn't morph into the 1999 St. Louis Rams overnight.

Meanwhile, the Falcons offense is lights out. Wide receiver Julio Jones is still one of the game's best pass-catchers this century, as he's caught 34 passes for 564 yards thus far. Rookie wideout Calvin Ridley has come on strong, most notably hauling in three touchdowns against the Saints. And possession receiver Mohamed Sanu has also produced lately with 184 yards and a score in his last two games.

It's hard seeing the Bucs being able to stop all three wideouts, and while Tampa Bay has some solid offensive skill-position players of their own (e.g. No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans), the edge goes to the Falcons if this game becomes a shootout, especially with Atlanta at home.

Pick: Atlanta 38, Tampa Bay 30