NFL Week 6 Picks: Game-by-Game Over-Under Predictions

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistOctober 10, 2018

FOXBOROUGH, MA - OCTOBER 04:  Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots throws a 34-yard touchdown pass to Josh Gordon #10 (not pictured) for his 500th career touchdown pass during the fourth quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium on October 4, 2018 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

All eyes are focused on one significant game in Week 6 of the NFL season. 

Kansas City's clash with New England is one of the most anticipated contests of the young campaign, and with it comes one of the most intriguing over/under lines. 

The over/under of 59 for the Chiefs-Patriots game is the highest of the week, but it isn't the only one up in the fifties. 

Three other Week 6 games, including the Los Angeles Rams' visit to Denver, possess over/under lines above 50. 

While the high lines are attractive to bet on because of the high-profile teams involved in those games, there are other over/under spreads that have potential to make you money if you look at them the right way.


Week 6 Schedule and Over/Under Lines

Over/under predictions in bold. 

Thursday, October 11

Philadelphia at New York Giants (Over/Under: 43.5) 


Sunday, October 14

Arizona at Minnesota (Over/Under: 43) 

Buffalo at Houston (Over/Under: N/A) 

Carolina at Washington (Over/Under: 45) 

Chicago at Miami (Over/Under: 42) 

Indianapolis at New York Jets (Over/Under: 45) 

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland (Over/Under: 44) 

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (Over/Under: 53) 

Seattle at Oakland (Over/Under: 48) 

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Over/Under: 57.5) 

Los Angeles Rams at Denver (Over/Under: 52.5) 

Baltimore at Tennessee (Over/Under: 41) 

Jacksonville at Dallas (Over/Under: 40.5) 

Kansas City at New England (Over/Under: 59) 


Monday, October 15

San Francisco at Green Bay (Over/Under: 46.5) 

Odds obtained from OddsShark.


Take The Under In London Game

The games played in England a year ago were far from competitive, as each victorious team won by 17 or more points. 

In those contests, the losing side scored over 10 points once, while two losers were shutout. 

With that in mind, the over/under line for the clash between the Seattle Seahawks and Oakland Raiders at Wembley Stadium seems too high. 

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

However, the one factor worth taking into account when betting on the game as a whole is the start time.

Normally, the games over in London have started around 9 a.m. ET, but Sunday's game starts at 1 p.m. ET, which should bring a little normalcy to each team's body schedule. 

The under looks more appealing when you apply the line to the first five games played by the Seahawks and Raiders. 

The former AFC West rivals hit a total higher than 48 points in three of their 10 combined games. 

Given the amount of travel for both teams just to get to London, the acclimation process to the time change and the lack of points put up through five weeks by both teams, the under feels like a lock. 


All Signs Point To Sunday Night Over 

Sunday night's meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots has the potential for a high-scoring affair. 

All the Chiefs offense has done in five weeks is find the end zone with Patrick Mahomes leading the charge, while Tom Brady is more than reliable to put up points on home soil. 

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

With the potential for no defense to be played, the over/under line is 59 points for the nationally televised contest. 

Although it seems high, even with both offenses playing well, it's worth taking a risk on given the style of both offenses. 

Even if they get stopped on a few possessions, the Chiefs are going to score a touchdown or two with the amount of weapons Mahomes has at his disposal. 

The Chiefs have scored at least 27 points in each of their five victories, and they've produced their two highest point totals on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers. 

New England has scored 38 points in each of its last two victories, but it's the Patriots defense that will be the key to the over hitting or not. 

On three occasions, including the Week 5 win over the Indianapolis Colts, the Patriots conceded 20 or more points, while it held the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins to one touchdown. 

If both teams score around their average, the over will hit easily, as the two combine for 61.6 points per game.

With few statistics suggesting the Chiefs and Patriots won't combine for at least 60 points, the high over will be your best betting option to close Sunday's slate. 


Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com