Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) will try to bounce back from a rough loss in their second straight road game on Sunday when they visit the Dallas Cowboys (2-3) as small favorites at sportsbooks.

The Jaguars were routed 30-14 by the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday as three-point underdogs away from home while the Cowboys fell 19-16 to the Houston Texans in overtime but managed to cover the spread as 3.5-point underdogs.

NFL point spread: The Jaguars opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 20.6-20.4 Cowboys (NFL picks on every game).

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Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Jacksonville cannot afford to drop two in a row, especially on the road against a beatable opponent that struggles to score. The Jaguars saw quarterback Blake Bortles throw four interceptions last week vs. the unbeaten Chiefs, and he will play much better in this spot.

Dallas gave up 375 passing yards and 40 rushing yards to Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson last week, so bettors should expect a rebound performance from Bortles and his teammates even though they will be on the road again. In fact, Jacksonville has gone an impressive 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 after failing to cover the previous game.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

The Cowboys have won four in a row off a loss in their previous game, and they covered vs. the Texans despite giving up a lot of yards to Watson. The Dallas defense has played a bend-not-break style for much of the early season, also relying on a strong running game led by Ezekiel Elliott to control the clock and keep the opposing team's offense off the field.

The Jaguars do not have much balance offensively with running back Leonard Fournette (hamstring) out, and he is not expected to return this week.

Smart betting pick

Elliott is the league's leading rusher with 480 yards, and Jacksonville ranks 14th as a team against the run (101.2 yards per game). This figures to be a low-scoring affair, with eight of the last nine games for the Cowboys going under the total, and Elliott likely carrying another heavy load.

The under has also cashed in three straight for the Jaguars on the road, including last week, so look for this one to fall below the total, too.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of the Cowboys' last nine games.

The Cowboys are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games in the late afternoon.

The total has gone under in the Jaguars' last three games on the road.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.