Pretender or Contender: Which NFL Teams Are for Real?

One of my favorite ways to kill time when procrastinating from writing articles is going back and watching old NFL highlight footage from the 1970s and 1980s.

Aside from the disco music, dated graphics and trying to wrap my brain around the fact that Brent Musberger is still an active sports-media personality decades later, it's interesting to compare how teams were viewed during the season with how they finished.

For example, check out this halftime report from a Week 3 1981 game between the Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers. The Falcons were nine-point favorites and beat the 49ers with ease, 34-17, to move to 3-0, while the 49ers fell to 1-2. Musberger called Atlanta one of the best teams in football, and that certainly was the case.

If you were a football fan in the early 1980s, you might know the rest of the story. The 49ers rebounded and won the Super Bowl behind head coach Bill Walsh and quarterback Joe Montana. As for the Falcons? They wilted and finished 7-9 after going 12-4 the year before.

Teams that look like postseason contenders right now could be out of the playoff picture by Thanksgiving. Likewise, teams that look like playoff pretenders may end up winning the Super Bowl. You never know, although we have enough evidence to make educated guesses.

We'll try to do so here for a handful of clubs that are on the precipice of contending for a playoff berth late in December or making 2019 draft plans before their final game.

Los Angeles Chargers: Contender

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The Los Angeles Chargers are tied for the AFC's first wild-card spot at 3-2 despite star edge-rusher Joey Bosa (23.0 sacks in two years) missing the first five games. Their only losses have come against the undefeated Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs.

Bosa told reporters he won't be back until after the bye (the Bolts face the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans before a week off), but if he's in the lineup in time for a Week 9 matchup with the Seattle Seahawks, then the Chargers will receive a massive boost heading into their final nine contests.

A division title looks unlikely, as the Chiefs hold the division lead and have the tiebreaker advantage over L.A. by virtue of their 38-28 win.

However, L.A. has a versatile and powerful offensive attack that has proved hard to defend (the team hasn't scored fewer than 23 points in a game yet), and the defense showed improvement in a 26-10 Week 5 win against the Oakland Raiders, who have averaged 6.1 yards per play (eighth-best in the NFL).

Right now, the Chargers look like one of the AFC's strongest wild-card contenders.

Miami Dolphins: Pretender

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The Miami Dolphins offense is missing in action, as it has totaled just 24 points the last two games. The team also allowed two defensive touchdowns against the Cincinnati Bengals in a 27-17 loss Sunday.

The Dolphins have hit on a few explosive plays, perhaps most notably wideout Albert Wilson's 52-yard touchdown toss to Jakeem Grant against the Oakland Raiders. However, Miami can't rely on similar moments all season, especially with some tough defenses lying in wait (e.g., the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears).

The Dolphins also may have the NFL's most brutal closing stretch, with games against the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars at home and road tilts with the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills (the latter of which could be in miserable Western New York weather conditions).

Furthermore, the Patriots present a significant roadblock in the playoff path. After winning their last two games by a combined score of 76-31 (including a 38-7 win versus Miami), the Pats resemble a team ready to roll to a division crown and wild-card bye yet again.

That would leave Miami fighting for a wild-card berth in a packed AFC, and that could be a losing proposition with that aforementioned closing stretch.

Cleveland Browns: Contender

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The Cleveland Browns defense has led the team to a respectable 2-2-1 record through five games by allowing 21 or fewer points in four of five contests.

However, the offense has been inconsistent, as it has failed to score more than 21 points in four of five games.

That may change soon, however, as the Browns' upcoming schedule doesn't look menacing on paper.

Per NFL analyst Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Stats, Cleveland is facing the third-weakest slate of passing defenses from now through Week 17. A closer look at the Browns' opponents reveals the team isn't facing anyone in the top 11 in adjusted passing yards allowed per attempt until the season's final game, when they'll face the Baltimore Ravens.

That's a good sign for rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield and a promising Browns offense with numerous young players who have excellent potential, including running back Nick Chubb and tight end David Njoku.

If the stout defense holds its form while the offense springs to life, then the Browns could go from being winless to the playoffs in one year.

Seattle Seahawks: Pretender

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The Seattle Seahawks are unofficially three-and-a-half games back of the 5-0 division-leading Rams, who own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

That seemingly shuts down one playoff route for Seattle, whose most realistic playoff path is via the wild card.

In addition, the defense will have to navigate the rest of the season sans safety Earl Thomas, who suffered a left lower leg fracture in Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals.

Without Thomas, the Seahawks defense struggled Sunday against a Rams team that piled up 468 yards even though wideouts Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp each left early after suffering concussions.

Thomas' impact on the team is invaluable. He's a six-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro who had three interceptions through three games this season.

Without him, the Seahawks must face numerous passing offenses that rank top-10 in adjusted yards per attempt, including the Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Chargers and Rams. Seattle may have trouble against that quartet, which could leave the team out of the playoff picture.

Tennessee Titans: Contender

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The Tennessee Titans may have just lost to the previously 1-3 Buffalo Bills, but a few encouraging signs exist.

First, the Titans' schedule may be the NFL's easiest down the stretch. They have no road games left against teams that are .500 or better and have one fewer road game because of a neutral-site matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers at Wembley Stadium in London (the Bolts lost the home game there).

Second, the Titans are tied for first place in the AFC South with the 3-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Tennessee has the edge over Jacksonville thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker (the Titans beat the Jags, 9-6, in Jacksonville).

Tennessee also has the tiebreaker over the third-place team (the 2-3 Houston Texans).

Third, the defense has been solid, as it has allowed the third-fewest points per game (17.2) in the league. Of note, defensive tackle Jurrell Casey has shined thanks to three sacks, 24 tackles and two forced fumbles.

In essence, the Titans' margin for error may be greater than other division contenders. They can lose a few clunkers like the one in Buffalo and still be in command for the AFC South crown (or wild-card berth).

Denver Broncos: Pretender

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The Denver Broncos have lost three straight games and just allowed 323 rushing yards to the New York Jets, including 219 to Isaiah Crowell. Quarterback Case Keenum has been up and down in his new role as the Broncos starter, throwing seven interceptions and five touchdowns.

Unofficially, Denver sits three-and-a-half games back of the 5-0 Kansas Chiefs in the AFC West. The Broncos lost to Kansas City in Week 4 (and therefore do not have the tiebreaker at the moment), so they have a significant uphill climb just to come close to a division crown. The Chargers also sit between the Chiefs and Broncos in the division standings.

Denver faces the Chiefs and 5-0 Rams within the next three weeks (a date with the Arizona Cardinals falls in between).

The Broncos are likely staring at a 3-5 record at best, and that will be difficult to overcome in an AFC where eight teams are 3-2 or better.

Houston Texans: Contender

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The Houston Texans are off to a disappointing start with three losses through five games, but it's hard to count out a team with one of the best offensive players in football (wideout DeAndre Hopkins) and one of the NFL's best defenders (edge-rusher J.J. Watt).

That duo has been fantastic through five weeks, with Hopkins catching 39 passes for a league-leading 594 yards and two touchdowns. Watt has six sacks, four forced fumbles and is making a case to be named Defensive Player of the Year.

Granted, the team has some significant weaknesses. Notably, the secondary has struggled (the Texans rank in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed per attempt), and the offensive line has not done a good job keeping quarterback Deshaun Watson on his feet (he's taken 18 sacks, including seven versus the Indianapolis Colts).

However, Houston has a weak schedule down the stretch, with zero games against winning teams on the road. The Texans have also been competitive in each game, with all contests decided by one score. Lastly, Houston is just one game back of division leaders Tennessee and Jacksonville.

Given those factors, look for Houston to contend into late December at a minimum.

The Entire NFC East: Contender

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All four NFC East teams get lumped into one contender section given the Washington Redskins' 43-19 loss to the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.

This entire division is up for grabs given that the 'Skins lead the division with a 2-2 record.

At first glance, it looks like no one is running away with it, opening the door to the possibility that a squad wins with a record around .500.

Washington's offense doesn't look explosive enough to hang with the league's best scoring units, as was the case in its Monday loss.

The 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles just lost running back Jay Ajayi for the season with a torn ACL. The Dallas Cowboys have only scored more than 20 points (26) once all season, and the 1-4 New York Giants have been inconsistent.

On paper, all of those teams are clear Super Bowl pretenders right now, but they are by default playoff contenders given the wide-open nature of the division.

Don't expect the NFC East to have a wild-card team, but an 8-8 first-place team is a possibility.