Week 5 NFL Picks: Over/Under Advice, Final-Score Predictions and Odds

All feels right in the NFL world coming out of the Week 5 edition of Thursday Night Football. 

The picks department outright and would-be bettors haven't had it easy to start the season. But Thursday night, the New England Patriots entered favored by 10 over the Indianapolis Colts and came away with a 38-24 victory.  

A return to normalcy isn't a bad thing, especially if those who play the lines out of Las Vegas didn't make any headway building a bankroll over the first quarter of the season. 

Pairing some of the lessons learned so far with a new week of lines, a shot at redemption awaits those searching for it, as does a chance to keep making gains for those who emerged from the chaos looking good. 

Just remember oddsmakers are taking much of the same approach, hence only one spread boasting a line north of seven points this week. 

Week 5 NFL Odds

Miami at Cincinnati (-6) | O/U 50

Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-3) | O/U 

Baltimore (-3) at Cleveland | O/U 47

Denver (-1.5) at N.Y. Jets | O/U n/a

Green Bay (-1) at Detroit | O/U 50.5

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-3) | O/U n/a

N.Y. Giants at Carolina (-6.5) | O/U 44.5

Tennessee (-5.5) at Buffalo | O/U 38.5

Oakland at L.A. Chargers (-5) | O/U 53.5

Arizona at San Francisco (-3.5) | O/U 

L.A. Rams (-7.5) at Seattle | O/U 50.5

Minnesota at Philadelphia (-3) | O/U 44.5

Dallas at Houston (-3) | O/U 45

Washington at New Orleans (-6.5) | O/U 52.5

Baltimore (-3) at Cleveland

Betting with the Cleveland Browns has to go against every possible instinct bettors have. 

Go against the ironclad instinct anyway. 

These aren't the same old Browns, and while the schedule only reads 1-2-1, the fact Hue Jackson's team has stuck in every game has probably burnt bettors already—and the second win is going to come faster than most would dare predict. 

Now might be the time, too. The Browns have one of the best defenses in the league, as the unit boasts 12 sacks and is a large part of the reason they tied Pittsburgh, lost by three in New Orleans, picked up a win and most recently lost by three in overtime in Oakland. 

The key here is hoping the coaching figures it out offensively. And to be fair, it seems like they are starting to get it: 

Baker Mayfield keyed the team's win over the New York Jets, and second-round rookie Nick Chubb went for 105 yards and two scores on three carries in Oakland, so yes, it's about time Cleveland embraces a youth movement. 

This hasn't focused much on Baltimore because there isn't much to say. Joe Flacco helped blow away a bad Buffalo team, got whipped by Cincinnati and then took down mediocre Denver and Pittsburgh squads.

Winning is good, but the Ravens hardly average three yards per rush, the line has coughed up 10 sacks and the defense hasn't had a serious test since Cincinnati. 

While it sounds odd, the Browns have the talent to beat the Ravens at their own game through running the ball and defense. Look for Mayfield to be the X-factor a game like this needs late. 

Prediction: Browns 23, Ravens 20

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-3)

This one is simpler than it seems. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are undefeated, rolling through an iffy schedule while putting up 38, 42, 38 and 27 points behind an MVP-esque debut from Patrick Mahomes, who is now up to 14 touchdowns with no interceptions.

He's taken five sacks, put his ground game in a good position and has done what he can to cover for a defense that doesn't get enough publicity as being downright miserable (28.8 points allowed per game). 

As bettors should know, the question surrounding the Chiefs will always be how quickly the rest of the NFL can dissect what Andy Reid has going with Mahomes and adapt. On paper, the Jacksonville Jaguars should have a defense capable of putting up a fight, which has created a war of strengths: 

But the Jaguars have managed to underwhelm in other areas, and a good defensive performance won't matter much if the team can't score. 

Jacksonville is 3-1, but it's a yawn-worthy resume at this point. Beating 1-3 New York Giants and Jets squads isn't impressive, and taking down a less-than-impressive New England squad at 3-2 is hard to rally behind—especially when the 9-6 loss to Tennessee sticks out like a sore thumb. 

Through it all, Blake Bortles has thrown seven touchdowns with three interceptions, but his offense hasn't had Leonard Fournette available. He's still a limiting factor if the Jaguars have to play from behind, and it's a safe bet he'll do so when in a head-to-head duel with Mahomes. 

These are the sorts of games a Reid-orchestrated offense are built to win. At home surrounded by one of NFL's best home-field advantages, look for the Chiefs to pull ahead and force Bortles into a pass-heavy mode, which could do more harm than good. 

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 20

Tennessee (-5.5) at Buffalo

James Kenney/Associated Press

It feels like things are about to really start opening up for the Tennessee Titans. 

The Marcus-Mariota led Titans have now won three games in a row, starting the season with a loss in Miami while relying on Blaine Gabbert and since winning two AFC South matchups before besting the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime. 

Against the Eagles, Mariota finally looked back to his normal self, tossing two touchdowns and an interception while serving up an overtime win and outdueling Carson Wentz.

To say he's delivering in the clutch now is an understatement: 

Not that Mariota should need to pull any heroics against a hapless 1-3 Buffalo Bills team. 

Outside of a weird win over Minnesota, the Bills have lost 47-3, 31-20 and 22-0 while working through the throes of a rebuild with first-round rookie Josh Allen under center. He's completing just 53.4 percent of his passes with a pair of touchdowns and four interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing with 27 carries for 116 yards. 

On the road or not, Mariota should have a simple passing day while the tandem of Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis control things on the ground. That duo has been underwhelming so far this season, but a Buffalo defense that hasn't been tested by a serious ground game yet is exploitable if Allen is taking risks from behind and putting his defense in bad situations. 

Good or bad situations regardless, Mariota is too trustworthy to go against in a matchup like this, and he's still finding a groove while getting back into the swing of things. The Bills are likely to serve as another stepping stone while the Titans wake up the NFL world to their contending status. 

Prediction: Titans 30, Bills 10

Odds via OddsShark