Fantasy Football Week 5: Confident Calls on Toughest Lineup Decisions

We're entering the second month of the 2018 NFL season, and by now, you know which of your fantasy players are weekly must-starts. Due to injuries, matchups and bye weeks, however, you're still probably staring down some difficult lineup decisions.

Whether you're sorting out your bye-week options to replace Mike Evans or just need a good streaming option for the flex position, we're here to help. We'll be looking at some of the toughest Week 5 matchups and deciding whether players are worth the start by analyzing factors like opponent, early-season performances and player health.

We'll be making our choices based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring formats. All rankings and fantasy statistics via FantasyPros.

QB Blake Bortles

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To start Blake Bortles or to sit him? It's a tough question because the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback has been up and down this season. He had fewer than 200 yards passing in Weeks 1 and 3 and more than 375 yards in Weeks 2 and 4.

Expect this to be an up week for a couple of reasons.

For starters, he's going up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has allowed an average of 328.5 yards passing per game, second-most in the NFL. Bortles will also be operating without starting running back Leonard Fournette, who is set to miss another game with a hamstring injury.

Against a Chiefs team that averages 36.3 points per game, the Jaguars are going to have to move the ball in order to keep pace. They may be forced to do so primarily through the air, which would lead to a big day for Bortles.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 328 PASS YDS, 43 RUSH YDS, 2 TDs, 1 INT

QB Baker Mayfield

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After his big debut against the New York Jets, you may have decided to scoop up Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, either as a streaming option or an outright replacement for, say, the injured Jimmy Garoppolo.

While Mayfield had a productive outing in his first start (295 yards, two touchdowns), he also showed he is capable of making rookie mistakes. He had four turnovers against a bad Oakland Raiders defense, and that brings up concern heading into Week 5.

Mayfield will be back at home, but he'll also be facing a Baltimore Ravens defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Mayfield and the Browns will have a legitimate shot at upsetting the Ravens—and Mayfield certainly adds to Cleveland's fantasy value—but this isn't a good week to stream him.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 265 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT

RB James Conner

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Though he had a strong 2018 debut, Pittsburgh Steelers running back James Conner has since proven he is no Le'Veon Bell. He hasn't been the centerpiece of Pittsburgh's offense the way Bell can be, and that becomes especially true when the Steelers find themselves trailing.

In last week's loss to the Ravens, Conner had just 19 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards.

Still, this is a good week to give the Pittsburgh product another chance. He'll be playing an Atlanta Falcons team that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

The Steelers should be motivated to control the game with their rushing attack in order to keep Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and co. off the field as much as possible. Neither defense in this matchup is good, but Pittsburgh's chances of winning drop if things devolve into a full-blown shootout.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 76 RUSH YDS, 4 REC, 34 REC YDS, 1 TD

RB LeSean McCoy

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If you drafted Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy early, you've largely been disappointed this season. He's dealt with a rib injury and has missed one game because of it. However, he hasn't been a major part of the game plan even when he has been available.

McCoy hasn't logged 10 carries in a single game this season. While this is mostly due to the Bills falling behind early in each game he's been a part of, he hasn't done much with his opportunities either. He has just 126 combined rushing and receiving yards this season.

Don't expect this to be the week for McCoy to bounce back, though that week will come. The Tennessee Titans have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, despite the fact they've found themselves in close games every single week.

The Bills may be able to lean on the run more in Week 5, assuming they don't fall behind early yet again. However, this likely won't lead to a breakout game for McCoy.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 45 RUSH YDS, 3 REC, 21 REC YDS

RB Dion Lewis

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While this week isn't good for McCoy, it should be for one of the backs playing opposite him.

Titans running back Dion Lewis can be inconsistent in fantasy for a couple of reasons. He's splitting time with Derrick Henry, and if he isn't heavily utilized in the passing game, he doesn't hold much value. He had just 68 yards rushing and four receptions combined in Weeks 2 and 3, for example.

Last week, though, Lewis had a whopping nine receptions. While he had no rushing yards and just 66 receiving yards, this still made him a quality flex option in PPR.

Lewis should be in for another quality outing against the Bills, who have allowed an average of 26.5 points per game. Marcus Mariota proved last week his elbow injury is improving and that he is capable of spreading the ball around.

"I don't know if you guys believe me or not, but I told you he was feeling better," head coach Mike Vrabel said after last week's win over the Philadelphia Eagles, per Erik Bacharach of the Tennessean.

Expect Lewis to again be one of Mariota's go-to targets.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 28 RUSH YDS, 7 REC, 58 REC YDS

RB Lamar Miller

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Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller had a strong 2018 debut (109 combined rushing and receiving yards), but he hasn't been a consistent fantasy option since. Part of the reason has been a shared workload with fellow back Alfred Blue.

Miller had just 14 carries for 49 yards last week against the Indianapolis Colts. Blue had 13 carries for 31 yards.

Making things even more daunting this week is the fact Miller has been limited in practice with a chest injury.

Don't expect Miller to return to Week 1 form against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed just 97.8 yards per game on the ground this season.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 45 RUSH YDS

WR Kenny Stills

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Miami Dolphins wideout Kenny Stills hasn't exactly been a fantasy stud to this point, but he has had a couple of strong outings. He had 106 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, and he had 61 yards and a score in Week 3.

Against the Cincinnati Bengals, Stills has a chance to have one of his good games.

The Bengals have allowed an average of 303.5 passing yards per game this season, fifth-most in the NFL. They've also been susceptible to the big play. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu all had gains of at least 30 yards against Cincinnati last week.

Going deep is one of Stills' specialties, and he should have plenty of opportunities to do so. The Bengals average 31.5 points per game, so there's a good chance Miami finds itself in a shootout scenario. Ryan Tannehill will likely look deep for Stills early and often.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 5 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD

WR Sammy Watkins

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Kansas City wide receiver Sammy Watkins left the Chiefs' Week 4 matchup against the Denver Broncos early due to a hamstring injury. While he did return to practice on a limited basis this week, this doesn't make him an automatic must-start against a tough Jaguars defense.

Against subpar defenses, Watkins has shined this season. He had 100 yards against the Steelers and 55 yards and a score against the San Francisco 49ers. Against the Los Angeles Chargers, however, he had just three receptions and 21 yards.

The Jaguars defense is even better than L.A.'s, and while expecting him to have just seven yards per reception is a little silly, we can't expect him to blow up either.

Jacksonville is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. With Watkins at less than 100 percent—and with plenty of other options on the Chiefs offense—he could be in store for a disappointing day.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 4 REC, 48 YDS

TE Hayden Hurst

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We haven't seen Ravens rookie tight end Hayden Hurst in the regular season yet, but it looks like that will change this week against the Cleveland Browns.

"I'd imagine that I'd go," Hurst said earlier this week, per Edward Lee of the Baltimore Sun. "I'm a full-go in practice today, and we'll see how it feels throughout the week. I'm healthy, and I'm excited to get back out there."

If Hurst does indeed go, he should be a safe tight end or flex start.

The Browns defense has been good at getting takeaways, but it has given up a lot of passing yards—an average of 278.2 per game, to be exact. It also just lost starting cornerback Terrance Mitchell, who was placed on injured reserve with a broken wrist.

Oakland Raiders tight end Jared Cook had 110 yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland last week. While those expectations are unrealistic for Hurst, expect the rookie to have a strong debut.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 4 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD

Miami Dolphins D/ST

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The Dolphins defense has been surprisingly good this season—at least through the first three weeks.

Against the Titans, Jets and Raiders, the Dolphins surrendered no more than 20 points in a game. While they did give up 38 to the New England Patriots in Week 4, Miami has continued to show its opportunistic nature on defense.

The Dolphins have six sacks and a whopping nine interceptions through the first four weeks of the season.

Unfortunately, the Dolphins are in position to have a game more like the one they had last week than the first three. The Bengals are at home and, as previously mentioned, have averaged more than 31 points per contest. Miami still looks like a solid streaming option this season, but this is a good week to stream elsewhere.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 34 points allowed, 2 SCK, 1 INT