Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Two of the top teams in the AFC will square off in Kansas City on Sunday when the Chiefs (4-0) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) as small home favorites at sportsbooks.

The Chiefs are one of two unbeaten teams left along with the Los Angeles Rams after edging the Denver Broncos 27-23 on Monday night while the Jaguars bounced back from their lone loss last week with a 31-12 rout of the New York Jets.

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as three-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.5-22.7 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Defensively, Jacksonville might be the best team Kansas City faces all season. The Chiefs struggled at times against another elite defensive team in the Broncos, outscoring them 14-3 in the fourth quarter to stay undefeated. The Jaguars have a stronger secondary that can hold Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes in check while their pass rush is also very good, led by defensive end Calais Campbell (three sacks).

The Jaguars are also 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games played in the early afternoon, giving them another edge.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs have won the past three meetings in this series by an average of nearly 18 points, including two games that were decided by more than 20. Jacksonville has never played against Kansas City with Mahomes under center though either, and that is one of the main reasons the team has stayed perfect

Mahomes is difficult to prepare for, and Denver saw that first-hand at home on Monday. The Broncos surrendered big play after big play, with Mahomes scrambling until his receivers were open. The Jaguars had trouble with Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago in a 9-6 loss, and Mahomes has performed better than anyone in the league through the first four weeks.

Smart betting pick

Without Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette in the lineup due to a hamstring injury, Kansas City's defense simply needs to focus on stopping quarterback Blake Bortles. And while Bortles came through earlier in the season when Fournette was out in a 31-20 win over the New England Patriots, that game was at home. Take the Chiefs.

NFL betting trends

The Jaguars are 1-3 ATS in their last four games vs the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games at home.

The total has gone over in six of the Jaguars' last seven games on the road after consecutive home games.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.